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Chart review - ultra short ETFs at a tipping point?

So what's going on with the ProShares UltraShort ETFs?

Almost all of them are carving out charts with the same characteristics. I've made some rough (very rough!) notations on the chart of the Ultra Short QQQ ETF (QID) below. There are two interesting formations playing out simultaneously:
  1. A head-and-shoulders is forming. I have pointed out the head and both shoulders in the chart below with the big red sloppy letters S and H and S. This chart formation carries bearish implications for this ETF.
  2. Moving averages tell a different story. It is clear that both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are well above the 200-day moving average. Recent action shows the ETF staying above its 20-day MA until October 27. At that point it fell below the 20-day and soon bounced off the 50-day MA and closed the week once again above the 20-day MA. I have underlined in blue where QID bounced off the 50-day. This successful test of the 50-day and retaking of the 20-day is potentially bullish.

Chart of QID, 11-14-2008
Conclusion --

Two chart formations presaging completely different outcomes.

If QID drops below its 50-day MA it completes the head-and-shoulders and the assumption is that the ETF could drop another 20 or 25 points.

On the other hand, the latest price action has kept the price of QID above the 20-day MA despite a big down day for the ETF on Thursday. Also implying further gains is MACD where the histogram has just crossed zero in the positive direction. DMI is also looking pretty decent.

As I mentioned above, nearly all of the ultra short ETFs are looking very similar. Further substantial gains in these ETFs, though, would require that stocks finally break below the October lows. Economic reports seem to be conspiring to drive stocks down but investors are hanging in there and keeping the major averages from taking another leg down.

For these ETFs, it seems we are at a turning point. Which way do you think they're going?

Disclosure: long QID
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