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We are about to begin another earnings season so I thought it might be a good idea to review how the most recent earnings season turned out. I have focused first of all on earnings growth; ie, the change in quarterly earnings on a year-over-year basis. The change was converted into a percentage growth calculation in order to compare growth rates across multiple quarters. For 4Q-2011 (results for 4th quarter 2011 as reported during 1st quarter 2012) the numbers are as follows: Out of our universe of roughly 5600 stocks that we follow (ETFs are excluded for the purposes of this analysis), 1445 companies showed earnings growth in the most recent quarter that exceeded the earnings growth registered in the previous quarter. This means that 25% of companies actually showed earnings growth acceleration. That seems to be to be pretty solid results. To widen our net a bit, I then looked at stocks who did not have accelerating growth but whose earnings growth year-over-year was at least st...

Consistency is tough to achieve. The following table of stocks comes from a list of those companies that reported during the month or so that comprised earnings seasons in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of this year. The screen uses the following criteria: The company beat earnings estimates each quarter There was an increase in year-over-year earnings each quarter There was an increase in year-over-year revenues each quarter The company offered upside guidance in Q1 and Q2 Symbol Name Sector ALTR Altera Technology ANAD Anadigics Technology APH Amphenol Capital Goods APKT Acme Packet Technology BWA Borg Warner Capital Goods EMN Eastman Chem Basic Industries ETN Eaton Technology FFIV F5 Networks Technology HITT Hittite Microwave Technology INTC Intel Technology IPGP IPG Photonics Technology LXK Lexmark Technology LZ Lubrizol Basic Industries OFIX Orthofix Health Care PII Polaris Inds Capital Goods ...

We're pretty well along into earnings season and this is a good time to take stock of how the numbers are stacking up. Below is a table that lists each sector shows the results as of Tuesday's earnings reports: Sector Earnings Beats Y-o-Y Earnings Increases Y-o-Y Revenue Increases Upside Guidance Total Providing Guidance Total Number of Stocks Reporting Basic Industries 24 26 35 5 13 40 Capital Goods 51 51 51 15 34 59 Consumer Durables 36 34 38 9 28 46 Consumer Non-Durables 26 28 29 6 14 34 Consumer Services 44 47 49 6 35 69 Energy 23 18 22 6 31 Finance 80 70 36 4 9 106 Health Care 25 25 36 8 25 43 Miscellaneous 13 10 11 1 10 15 n/a 1 1 1 1 1 Public Utilities 20 18 20 4 13 26 Techn...

Yesterday I wrote a post titled " Q2 earnings scorecard -- believe the guidance or believe the bears? "  The point of that post was that forward guidance during the most recent earnings season closely matched the guidance offered during the previous earnings season and that, based on these fairly positive expectations of company management, it was unlikely that the economy was heading for a double dip. It immediately afterward occurred to me that it might be worthwhile to test the hypothesis that Upside guidance actually results in increased earnings. In Q1 of 2010, roughly 20% of the companies that offered any guidance at all provided Upside guidance. Here are the Q2 results for this optimistic set of companies: 77% did actually deliver increased earnings 2% delivered no increase 21% showed a decrease in earnings 93% showed year-over-year top-line growth 7% saw a decrease in revenues Companies that offer Inline or Mixed guidance usually see their stock price slamm...

The 2010 2nd quarter earnings season has wound down so it's a good time to do a comparison the 1st quarter. I always say that earnings are ancient history so I focus on forward guidance. Unfortunately only 40% of companies provide guidance; nevertheless, I would contend 40% is enough to get a good picture of where the market might be heading. The two charts below compare Q2 to Q1. The percentages displayed are based on the total number of stocks in a sector that provided guidance. This first chart, for example, looks at how many stocks offered upside guidance as a percentage of stocks in a sector that provided guidance. This chart shows that Q2 is roughly the same as Q1: in both quarters 23% of guidance offered was to the upside. In other words, there has been no decrease in upside guidance quarter-over-quarter. For those pessimists looking for evidence of the double dip, I'm afraid there is no bearish confirmation in this measure. Not shown are the charts for Mixed guid...

Three weeks of second quarter earnings season are in the books. Here's the status so far broken down by sector (analysis is provided below): Sector Earnings Beats Y-o-Y Earnings Increases Y-o-Y Revenue Increases Upside Guidance Total Providing Guidance Total Number of Stocks Reporting Basic Industries 48 54 65 9 23 72 Capital Goods 104 95 99 21 56 124 Consumer Durables 69 67 77 12 43 91 Consumer Non-Durables 47 42 45 5 27 64 Consumer Services 106 90 111 10 81 152 Energy 52 43 53 1 11 78 Finance 105 98 57 0 9 171 Health Care 82 77 92 14 69 113 Miscellaneous 23 27 31 4 24 42 Public Utilities 29 23 31 4 17 45 Technology 163 170 207 36 136 238 Transportation 35 34 38 2 3 42 ...

The first two weeks of earnings season are in the books so it's time to take our first look at which sectors are doing well and which ones are - uh - "underperforming". The chart below breaks down each sector's earnings reports into five different categories and gives total stocks that have reported thus far. Sector Earnings Beats Y-o-Y Earnings Increases Y-o-Y Revenue Increases Upside Guidance Total Providing Guidance Total Number of Stocks Reporting Basic Industries 11 11 15 2 6 16 Capital Goods 37 34 40 7 17 47 Consumer Durables 27 28 26 6 16 33 Consumer Non-Durables 21 18 18 1 13 28 Consumer Services 33 36 43 2 30 49 Energy 9 9 12 0 2 18 Finance 48 47 20 0 3 84 Health Care 24 21 26 6 22 32 Miscellaneous 8 7 10 0 7 13 Pub...

The first quarter earnings season is pretty much wrapped up and investors, with their short memories, consider it ancient history. With markets in turmoil, the question is whether we are seeing a correction or something worse. As stocks struggle with their 200-day moving averages, it is clear that we don't quite have an answer yet. Certainly the blogosphere is lit up with bearish declarations while bulls, less exuberant than before, keep a worried eye on the charts. Looking for guidance -- One clue left over from earnings season may help us get closer to determining the future state of the stock market. Whereas earnings are historical numbers, out of date the minute they are released, company guidance is forward looking and provides the best assessment management has of the coming months. I have been collecting earnings, revenue and guidance data for this earnings season and have amassed a information on over 2000 companies. The following table provides the detail on guidan...

While the market gyrates, earnings season proceeds apace. This post looks at what I think of as the Earnings Season Leaders. These are the stocks that have shown  all of the following three characteristics: Year-over-year Revenues up 20% or more Actual Earnings beat First Call estimates by 20% or more Actual Earnings up 20% or more year-over-year From a fundamental point of view, these are the stocks at the top of the heap. Given how crazy the market has been lately, there's no guarantee that these stocks are outperforming in terms of stock price. The last time I sliced and diced earnings season data, I had some requests to list the companies within the sectors that were outperforming. So today I provide a detailed list of the companies and what sector and industry they are in. Sector Industry Symbol Name Basic Industries Agricultural Chemicals SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) Basic Industries Forest Products WY Weyerha...