the Trade-Radar + TradingStockAlerts blog

I have been writing about the TradeRadar software on a regular basis lately but I have not spent much time discussing my results using the software. The Track Profit & Loss page of the TradeRadar site shows the results for the stocks that are in our trading portfolio. Note that the ETFs were not chosen using the TradeRadar software but all the stocks were. The good news is that all but one of the stocks (and one ETF) are, as of today, showing gains. Obviously some have done better than others. All of these stocks have, at one time or another, shown up in an alert list from the Alert HQ process where we scan almost all the stocks on the NYSE, the AMEX and the NASDAQ every weekend looking for BUY and SELL signals. Having used Alert HQ to weed through all the stocks in the general market and provide a short list of investment candidates for the week, I then had to evaluate each one in turn to determine which ones to actually buy. This is easier said than done and it is why I have sta...

This past weekend, our Alert HQ market scan identified SAFECO Corp. (SAF) as a BUY. Since then, we heard that Liberty Mutual was making an offer to acquire SAFECO at a significant premium. I cannot say that Alert HQ has the ability to identify buyout candidates. What I can say is that Alert HQ has the ability to identify stocks that are moving up significantly after a prolonged down-trend. As can be seen in the chart below, SAF was moving up well in advance of the announcement. So I am wondering why SAF was moving up so strongly. In the last quarter, the company had registered a drop in earnings and expectations, as with most financial companies, were not particularly bright. What was driving the recent stock price gain? Did some people know this buyout was on the way? Just something I was wondering about...

Starbucks may have reached an attractive entry point. Here is a company that has been steadily growing earnings, often in double digits; however, its stock has continued on a downward path since mid-November of 2006. From a technical point of view, the stock has recently appeared to establish a bottom and begin to turn around. At its lowest point, Starbucks hit $25.54 in June of this year. That was 35% off its highs. The stock has fought back now to around $28 per share and is flashing a TradeRadar BUY signal. This recent rebound has been accompanied by heavy volume in both the stock and its call options. [ Click chart to view larger image ] Reasons for Optimism Starbucks is a solid company with an extremely strong brand. It continues to provide steady earnings growth, especially compared to many other stocks in the restaurant sector. Management indicates recent financial performance has been in line with its stated targets. Starbucks is instituting its second price hike of the year. T...

Since Agnico-Eagle Mines may not be well known in the US, I went looking for some analysis that might provide support for the TradeRadar BUY signal. The following is an excerpt from a Business Week article from June 7 titled "Canada's Resource Boom: Five Great Plays" where AEMLW is one of the five: The weaker U.S. dollar, inflation concerns, and rising demand from the jewelry market out of India, China, and the Middle East with their growing economies have made gold a hot commodity lately. With mining production slipping from a peak in 2001 and more physical bullion being socked away in bank vaults as collateral for gold exchange-traded funds, the supply-demand imbalance has also favored higher prices. Toronto-based Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEMLW) has only one mine, in Quebec, currently producing gold. But it's poised to grow rapidly as it brings three additional mines in Quebec and projects in Mexico and Finland onstream in the next couple of years. The company h...

If anyone is interested in gold mining stocks, Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited ( AEMLW ) is flashing a TradeRadar BUY signal. AGNICO-EAGLE MINES LTD. is a gold producing company and is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metal properties. The company's operations are located principally in Northwestern Quebec, with exploration and development activities in Quebec, Ontario, Mexico and Nevada, U.S.A. I can't say that I have any expertise at all in analyzing gold mining stocks. In checking the charts of some stocks with potentially bullish options activity, I came across AEMLW and took a look at it using the TradeRadar software. Based on a time period starting in December, it gave a BUY signal just last week. Not the strongest signal but good enough to give the green light in the TradeRadar dashboard. You can see a pretty clear signal peak has formed in the bottom chart in the image below. The stock trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York ...

It is getting about that time when we announce the Trade Radar Pick o' the Month. I haven't made my mind up yet but I wanted to list a few stocks that have developed promising patterns but haven't quite generated unambiguous BUY signals. The current list is as follows: National Interstate ( NATL ) - provides insurance for the transportation industry (today's close: $26.70) Diodes Inc ( DIOD ) - semiconductor manufacturer (today's close: $36.27) Evergreen Energy ( EEE ) - provides lower emission fuel to coal-fired utilities and industries (today's close: $10.48) Alkermes Inc ( ALKS ) - a pharmaceutical company with an alcoholism treatment (today's close: $15.04) Abaxis ( ABAX ) - makes easy-to-use blood test kits for humans and animals (today's close: $21.80) All of these stocks have been trending downward for the last few months, some more steeply than others, but have recently announced better earnings and/or have garnered analyst upgrades. I am def...

With this month's pick I am continuing a trend of identifying lesser-known stocks that are undergoing a reversal and appear to be moving up. Stock markets have been red hot in China and India for the past year. This month's pick is a Chinese stock, PacificNet (PACT) . The TradeRadar BUY signal was first flashed on 12/19/06 at $5.23. Since then, the stock has seen more good news and has moved up to $6.18 as of the last trading day of 2006. To see this TradeRadar BUY signal, click here . Note that the signal strength is pretty decent and the signal shape is quite well-defined. This leads me to believe we have a real reversal underway and that the newly established trend upward will continue. PACT has exhibited plenty of volatility over the years though so I am sure the path upward will not be smooth. PACT had recently taken a hit as a result of taking charges for exiting a business segment related to telecommunications. They are continuing with their involvement in providing CRM ...

I have been busy enhancing the blog and the associated web site. I have added two new features which will be updated on a regular basis: The Weekly Market Call - here I use the Trade Radar signal to indicate whether the current trend in the three major market averages (Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100) is steady or changing. This is presented as a simple up or down indicator. The current week is compared to the previous week. If last week was up and this week is down, for example, it means Trade Radar is signalling a top with a reversal to the downside in progress. Pick o' the Month - here I will highlight stocks or ETFs that, according to the Trade Radar signal, are undergoing a reversal. On the web site, I will soon be rolling out a page that shows what the Trade Radar software looks like. Here you can see screen shots of some of the most important features of the program. I will also provide a link to the Help file so you can get an idea of how to set up and use the syst...

Introduction Many money management professionals take advantage of various hedging strategies to avoid being whipsawed by the markets and to avoid losing money in down markets. They may use combinations of swaps, options, futures and derivatives to offset risk and to generate returns when traditional investments are losing value. Some of the investment tools used by these professionals are now available to the public. There are several companies that have developed families of mutual funds and ETFs that bundle all these exotic vehicles into easy to understand funds that track common indexes. I will focus on two companies, Rydex and ProShares, as I describe a strategy that will allow you to invest and profit like the professionals. Both companies have products that track, as a minimum, the Dow, the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. What is interesting and pertinent to our discussion here is that they also have funds that track the INVERSE of the associated index. For example, if one fund...

With the market in uncertain territory lately, the buy signal for FCEL did not come through. The stock has been mostly down for the past week and TradeRadar clearly indicates this is not the time to buy. As for the other two picks I have posted about, Generex (GNBT) and Eight-by-Eight (EGHT) have both slowed their advance. Generex continues to put out press releases about successes it is having with its new drug delivery systems and Eight-by-Eight recently announced that Office Max will be carrying it's products. The news is decent but the charts are weakening. An analyst announcing that he still has doubts about EGHT effectively killed a bounce-back in the making in that stock this week but I am still rating it a hold if you had purchased at the time TradeRadar gave the buy signal. I am still holding GNBT, as well.

As I said in my previous post, it would be prudent to watch this stock for a few days. Well, it sure got hammered today as the entire stock market had its worst day in months. Caught in the down draft, FCEL moved in the wrong direction and the TradeRadar signal didn't get to a level that provided any confidence in going long. I have previously stated that charts are great but you should pick stocks that have reasonable business fundamentals. FCEL is lacking in this area and has registered a string of losses over prior quarters. This could be a time when I am proving the rule rather than finding an exception to it. We'll keep watching but I am already losing confidence.

Doing a little post-Thanksgiving stock hunting and I came across this one at Bernie Schaeffer's site. It's getting some high call option activity and the TradeRadar buy signal looks pretty good (just beginning to signal a buy on 11/20/06 at $7.05). This trade is playing out right now; this is not a back-test. Buying it anytime within the last week or when the market opens Monday would be the agressive approach. Waiting a bit to see how things look over the next few days or so might be more prudent. Note that the red signal line is just barely below the green trigger point. Seeing that signal go a little lower would provide more confidence. Let's keep an eye on this one.

Here is another stock that I actually spent money on. The signal was given by the TradeRadar system around 8/18/2006 at less than a buck. The stock is currently closing in on $2 a share as we approach Thanksgiving. It has nearly doubled in three months. I have been testing the refurbished TradeRadar system on some volatile, inexpensive small caps and this one is working out pretty well. Note that the stock itself has a certain fundamental interest. It is involved in providing low cost VOIP services to small and medium size businesses. VOIP is a trend that is accelerating. My own opinion is that charts are great but the underlying stock should still have a good story and solid business potential. The company's products are now being handled by a major office products chain and the stock is beginning to move to the upside.

Here is a view of what the system looks like. Note the red peak in the lower chart. This indicates that a low has been hit. The horizontal green line intersects the red peak. Where it intersects on the right side of the peak (the trailing edge, as the engineers would say), we have a Buy signal. This Buy signal is clearly earlier than that provided by the 20-day EMA moving above the 50-day EMA, for example. That is the benefit this system attempts to provide, an earlier signal that is still reliable. To make it interesting, I did put a few dollars on this one though a bit later than the date the system indicated. I consider this signal to be "decent" because the peak is kind of sloppy at the bottom which also causes my Signal-to-Noise indicator to be a bit weak. In any case, if you had bought when the signal indicated (at $1.69 on 8/24/06), you'd be sitting on a 20% profit today, two and a half months after entering the trade. I'll provide more information on...