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TradeRadar portfolio - June review

I have been writing about the TradeRadar software on a regular basis lately but I have not spent much time discussing my results using the software.

The Track Profit & Loss page of the TradeRadar site shows the results for the stocks that are in our trading portfolio. Note that the ETFs were not chosen using the TradeRadar software but all the stocks were.

The good news is that all but one of the stocks (and one ETF) are, as of today, showing gains. Obviously some have done better than others. All of these stocks have, at one time or another, shown up in an alert list from the Alert HQ process where we scan almost all the stocks on the NYSE, the AMEX and the NASDAQ every weekend looking for BUY and SELL signals.

Having used Alert HQ to weed through all the stocks in the general market and provide a short list of investment candidates for the week, I then had to evaluate each one in turn to determine which ones to actually buy. This is easier said than done and it is why I have started adding fundamental information to the technical data provided by the Alert HQ process.

Let's look at one of the recent additions to the portfolio and how it got picked. Delek US Holdings (DK) is a small-cap that operates in several business segments. It has a refinery in Texas and it owns chains of convenience stores. Its refined petroleum products are distributed to its convenience stores as well as to other customers on a wholesale basis. Not exactly a terribly exciting company.

Still, the chart caused it to surface as a potential BUY candidate. The stock had been in a decline since the middle of last July but now looks like it is beginning a reversal to the upside. At the time the BUY signal was generated, the technical indicators were pretty positive: good signal strength on the TradeRadar BUY signal, DMI and Aroon confirmed strong up-trends, decent Chaikin Money Flow and trend-line angles. The fundamental indicators were also looking attractive: the PE was under 10, the PEG was just a little over 1.0 and the price-to-sales ratio was very low, under 0.20; all told, good indications that the stock was not over-priced. Looking at our annualized free cash flow yield indicator which was sitting at around 13%, it appeared the company is doing well at staying cash flow positive.

So here we have a reasonably-valued company that is in decent financial shape with a chart that gives the impression an up-trend is beginning. The risk factor, however, is oil. If crude oil prices stay high or go higher, DK's margins on their refining business will continue to be squeezed. If oil prices come down, though, this stock should take off.

In summary, it appears that using the Alert HQ lists of BUY signal alerts to pick investment candidates is working for me, especially when compared to last year's results when it seemed half of the picks in the portfolio at any one time were generally showing losses. It is clear, though, that the system is not completely automated yet; there is still a good bit of analysis that is required. That is why I encourage users to really review the fundamentals and put the stocks on a watchlist in order to see which ones emerge as the clear winners.


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