Skip to main content

TradeRadar portfolio - June review

I have been writing about the TradeRadar software on a regular basis lately but I have not spent much time discussing my results using the software.

The Track Profit & Loss page of the TradeRadar site shows the results for the stocks that are in our trading portfolio. Note that the ETFs were not chosen using the TradeRadar software but all the stocks were.

The good news is that all but one of the stocks (and one ETF) are, as of today, showing gains. Obviously some have done better than others. All of these stocks have, at one time or another, shown up in an alert list from the Alert HQ process where we scan almost all the stocks on the NYSE, the AMEX and the NASDAQ every weekend looking for BUY and SELL signals.

Having used Alert HQ to weed through all the stocks in the general market and provide a short list of investment candidates for the week, I then had to evaluate each one in turn to determine which ones to actually buy. This is easier said than done and it is why I have started adding fundamental information to the technical data provided by the Alert HQ process.

Let's look at one of the recent additions to the portfolio and how it got picked. Delek US Holdings (DK) is a small-cap that operates in several business segments. It has a refinery in Texas and it owns chains of convenience stores. Its refined petroleum products are distributed to its convenience stores as well as to other customers on a wholesale basis. Not exactly a terribly exciting company.

Still, the chart caused it to surface as a potential BUY candidate. The stock had been in a decline since the middle of last July but now looks like it is beginning a reversal to the upside. At the time the BUY signal was generated, the technical indicators were pretty positive: good signal strength on the TradeRadar BUY signal, DMI and Aroon confirmed strong up-trends, decent Chaikin Money Flow and trend-line angles. The fundamental indicators were also looking attractive: the PE was under 10, the PEG was just a little over 1.0 and the price-to-sales ratio was very low, under 0.20; all told, good indications that the stock was not over-priced. Looking at our annualized free cash flow yield indicator which was sitting at around 13%, it appeared the company is doing well at staying cash flow positive.

So here we have a reasonably-valued company that is in decent financial shape with a chart that gives the impression an up-trend is beginning. The risk factor, however, is oil. If crude oil prices stay high or go higher, DK's margins on their refining business will continue to be squeezed. If oil prices come down, though, this stock should take off.

In summary, it appears that using the Alert HQ lists of BUY signal alerts to pick investment candidates is working for me, especially when compared to last year's results when it seemed half of the picks in the portfolio at any one time were generally showing losses. It is clear, though, that the system is not completely automated yet; there is still a good bit of analysis that is required. That is why I encourage users to really review the fundamentals and put the stocks on a watchlist in order to see which ones emerge as the clear winners.


Popular posts from this blog

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?

A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months. Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy: Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries A "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation

Thursday Bounce: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for July 9, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that we have published Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 72 Swing Signals -- A couple of days ago we had 35 signals, today we have twice as many. Happily, we now have 65 BUY signals, a mere 4 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs. Whoo-hoo! 56 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 18 new stocks that made today's list and 60 that fell off Tuesday's list. 48 Trend Busters of which 5 are BUY signals and 43 are SELL signals The view from Alert HQ -- Talk about mixed signals. If you look at our Swing Signals list you would think the market was in the middle of a big bounce. BUY signals are swamping the SELL signals and we even have a few Strong BUYs. Yes, there's a good sprinkling of tech stocks and tech ETFs but the distribution is pretty broad-based with a good number of different sectors represented, eve

Trade Radar gets another update

Some of our data sources changed again and it impacted our ability to load fundamental/financial data. In response, we are rolling out a new version of the software: 7.1.24 The data sourcing issues are fixed and some dead links in the Chart menu were removed. So whether you are a registered user or someone engaged in the free trial, head over to our update page and download the latest version. The update page is here: Contact us if you have questions or identify any new issues.