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The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday. I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month. Shipments --  I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector: Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment: Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month wa...

The Durable Goods advanced report for July was released on Wednesday and the headline number surprised to the upside. This helped the market tack on some further gains beyond Tuesday's big advance. Besides its effect on a day's action in the stock market, the Durable Goods report is useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing. As of this report, the situation is mixed. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. In July, the two measures were not consistent and this is worrisome. Let's see how it played out in July. Shipments -- I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how July shipments looked for the overall tech sector: Results were actually quite good and,...

The Durable Goods advanced report for June was just released and we can now see how tech in aggregate is performing. I have been of the opinion that tech is under-valued and this could help determine whether the sector deserves better or whether it tech stocks should remain in the doghouse. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Shipments -- I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how June shipments looked for the overall tech sector: This next chart shows just the sub-category of Computers and related products. This chart is for the Information Technology Industry. Unfortunately, the numbers for this sector are not broken out in the advance report but I thought it might b...

I occasionally read the emails from TheStreet.com. One of Jim Cramer's themes recently is that tech is in the "house of pain" and should be sold into rallies or avoided altogether. Having a particular interest in tech, I was wondering if I could prove or disprove his thesis. As it happens, the Durable Goods report for February was just released and we can see how tech in aggregate is performing. Shipments -- I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how February shipments looked for the overall tech sector: It appears that shipments in the tech sector peaked back in September 2010. Furthermore, the six month moving average has turned down. If you're keeping score, you might say Crame...

The advanced report for Durable Goods for July was released Wednesday and it was pretty dismal. The fact that the market managed to advance in the face of this report almost makes me think that a rally is in the offing. This is the second instance of bad news leading to gains in stocks. The first was the homebuilders stocks rallying after the horrific existing home sales report on Tuesday. And today we have the overall market gaining even though this report clearly shows one of the green shoots of the economy showing signs of wilting. In any case, here are some of the highlights of this latest report: New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion. Excluding transportation (primarily aircraft) new orders decreased 3.8 percent. (Yikes!) Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $4.4 billion or 2.2 percent to $200.6 billion. Transportation equipment, had th...

The advanced report for Durable Goods for June was released Wednesday and it contributed to a drop in the market that day. Indeed, headline numbers were disappointing (especially since this is supposed to be a manufacturing led recovery): New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $195.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent May decrease.  Unfilled Orders.  Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.1 billion to $802.9 billion.  This followed a 0.3 percent May increase. Inventories.  Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up six consecutive months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $308.2 billion.  This followed a 1.1 percent May increase.  Transportation equipment, up six consecuti...

The Advanced Report on Durable Goods for May was released today and it didn't do much to keep the market from continuing its single-minded decline. The headline number for May was not what investors were looking for (New Orders decreased 1.1%) but many analysts pointed out that ex-transportation, the overall number for new orders actually increased 0.9%. As I always do, I will focus on the tech sector. The numbers were mixed but, with one exception, not bad at all. Shipments -- Many analysts give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. In other words, ancient history. The following chart shows how May shipments look for the overall tech sector: The chart shows a downturn in May but so far it just looks like a repetition of an ongoing pattern: big jump up followed by two months of small declines leading to a solid up-trend. So far, there is no reason to be alarmed.  New O...

Well, I'm a few days late in providing my analysis of the most recent Durable Goods report but better late than never. The headline number for April was strong (New Orders up 2.9%) but many analysts pointed out that ex-transportation, (transportation comprised mostly of contributions from Boeing) the overall number for new orders decreased. Be that as it may, I mostly focus on tech and in that sector the news was much better as the following charts will show. Today I will only be presenting the two charts that show Shipments and New Orders for the Computers and Electronic Products category which is a summary or aggregate of Computers and Related Products, Communications Equipment and Semiconductors. The folks who compile the numbers have decided that Semiconductors will no longer be tracked separately but will be included in the aggregate Computers and Related Products numbers. Shipments -- So let's start with a little history. Shipments are a backward looking measure...

There was plenty of grumbling about the Advance Report on Durable Goods for January 2010 that was released today. The headline number showed new orders up 3% but ex-transportation, new orders were actually down 0.6%. If you're overweight tech, like I am, though, you would be smiling happily. I'll run through a few charts and you'll see why. Let's start by looking at shipments for the tech sector as a whole and than for the sub-sectors of computers, semiconductors and communications equipment. You can see that shipments have surged over the last two months and, except for communications equipment, are reaching levels last seen in 2008 just before the worst of the Great Recession took its toll on the global economy. The tech sector as whole showed shipments up 8.5% and semiconductor shipments up over 32% With the great improvement in shipments, it's disappointing to see Tech lagging other sectors like Materials and Consumer Discretionary. Some would argue...

The Advance Report for Durable Goods for October was released on Wednesday; Bloomberg characterized it as "tepid". That was a fair statement. As usual, we'll zero in on the Tech sector and see how the hardware vendors performed. Shipments -- Typically, investors pay the most attention to shipments and new orders. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment. It's a relief to see shipments increasing after two months of declines. Not only that, there seems to be confirmation that the lows are now behind us. This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category. Ouch! Shipments for Computers and related products dropped to a new low. Gartner and iSuppli have not only been forecasting increases in PC sales they have bee...

The advanced report for Durable Goods for September came out Wednesday. The headline number for new orders showed a 1% month-over-month improvement after a surprisingly poor showing in August. How did things go in the tech sector? Shipments -- Typically, investors pay the most attention to shipments and new orders. Shipments had the worst outcome in September. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment. Yup, two down months in a row and we are now approaching the lows that were last seen in March and May. This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category. Here we have a slight improvement though the previous month was revised downward a bit. Next is the chart for Communications Equipment. The numbers include both defense and non-defense equipm...