Skip to main content

ProShares ETFs fail to track NASDAQ properly today - is this rally meaningful?

Some numbers to consider from today's trading:

NASDAQ Composite up 2.28%
NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) up 2.43%
PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) up 2.38%

ProShares has a couple of ETFs that track the NASDAQ 100 on the long side and on the short side. One would have expected the double long ETF to move up nearly 5% and the double short ETF would have moved down nearly 5%.

What we saw instead is the following:

ProShares Ultra QQQ (QID) up 3.54%
ProShares Ultra-Short QQQ (QID) down 3.74%

Does this mean that ProShares was not able to deliver the expected returns and failed to track their underlying indexes properly? Or does it mean that investors did not completely buy into today's rally in the NASDAQ and, as a result, did not sell off the ultra-short ETF or bid up the ultra-long ETF as much as expected?

I see this happen periodically. Is it a tell? Is it an indication we can't trust today's rally? Stayed tuned.

Strongest Technical Performance in ProShares ETFs --

In the meantime, what can we deduce from the technical situation with the other ProShares ETFs?

The following table lists the ETFs generating the strongest technical signals based on moving averages, DMI and Aroon.

Symbol Signal Type Name Category 20-Day MA over 50-day MA DMI Aroon
DOG BUY Short Dow30 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 47 +DI: 31 -DI: 7) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
DXD BUY UltraShort Dow30 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 46 +DI: 30 -DI: 7) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
EEV BUY UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 32 -DI: 13) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EFU BUY UltraShort MSCI EAFE Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 34 -DI: 12) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EFZ BUY Short MSCI EAFE Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 42 +DI: 47 -DI: 12) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 8 Osc: 92
EUM BUY Short MSCI Emerging Markets Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 40 -DI: 14) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EWV BUY UltraShort MSCI Japan Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 35 -DI: 17) Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 16 Osc: 76
FXP BUY UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Short International Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 31 -DI: 21) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 4 Osc: 92
MYY BUY Short MidCap400 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 39 -DI: 9) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
MZZ BUY UltraShort MidCap400 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 36 +DI: 35 -DI: 9) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
PSQ BUY Short QQQ Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 24 +DI: 26 -DI: 18) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
QID BUY UltraShort QQQ Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 24 +DI: 25 -DI: 18) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
REW BUY UltraShort Technology Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 27 -DI: 16) Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 12 Osc: 80
RXL BUY Ultra Health Care Ultra Sector No DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 26 -DI: 24) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 50 Osc: 50
SBB BUY Short SmallCap600 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 39 -DI: 20) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SCC BUY UltraShort Consumer Services Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 30 -DI: 14) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SDK BUY UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 34 -DI: 11) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 44 Osc: 56
SDS BUY UltraShort S&P500 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 31 -DI: 8) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SFK BUY UltraShort Russell1000 Growth Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 26 +DI: 31 -DI: 16) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 16 Osc: 84
SH BUY Short S&P500 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 32 -DI: 8) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SIJ BUY UltraShort Industrials Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 30 -DI: 14) Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 16 Osc: 76
SJF BUY UltraShort Russell1000 Value Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 35 +DI: 31 -DI: 13) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SJH BUY UltraShort Russell2000 Value Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 32 -DI: 7) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SJL BUY UltraShort Russell MidCap Value Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 42 +DI: 42 -DI: 13) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SKF BUY UltraShort Financials Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 45 +DI: 33 -DI: 12) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SKK BUY UltraShort Russell2000 Growth Short Style Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 28 -DI: 11) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 16 Osc: 80
SMN BUY UltraShort Basic Materials Short Sector No DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 36 -DI: 12) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 44 Osc: 56
SRS BUY UltraShort Real Estate Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 28 +DI: 28 -DI: 20) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SSG BUY UltraShort Semiconductors Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 28 -DI: 15) Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 12 Osc: 80
SZK BUY UltraShort Consumer Goods Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 26 -DI: 24) Strong Up trend - Up: 84 Down: 12 Osc: 72
TLL BUY UltraShort Telecommunications Short Sector Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 43 +DI: 68 -DI: 19) Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
TWM BUY UltraShort Russell2000 Short Market Cap Yes DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 31 +DI: 31 -DI: 13) Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84

There are 32 ETFs in the list above. Everyone is in the short or ultra-short category.

What this shows is that today's rally has not yet affected a change in the primary trend which, based on the strength of these bearish ETFs, is still clearly down.

Disclosure: at time of writing author is long QID and MZZ

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?

A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months. Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy: Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries A "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation

Thursday Bounce: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for July 9, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that we have published Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 72 Swing Signals -- A couple of days ago we had 35 signals, today we have twice as many. Happily, we now have 65 BUY signals, a mere 4 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs. Whoo-hoo! 56 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 18 new stocks that made today's list and 60 that fell off Tuesday's list. 48 Trend Busters of which 5 are BUY signals and 43 are SELL signals The view from Alert HQ -- Talk about mixed signals. If you look at our Swing Signals list you would think the market was in the middle of a big bounce. BUY signals are swamping the SELL signals and we even have a few Strong BUYs. Yes, there's a good sprinkling of tech stocks and tech ETFs but the distribution is pretty broad-based with a good number of different sectors represented, eve

Trade Radar gets another update

Some of our data sources changed again and it impacted our ability to load fundamental/financial data. In response, we are rolling out a new version of the software: 7.1.24 The data sourcing issues are fixed and some dead links in the Chart menu were removed. So whether you are a registered user or someone engaged in the free trial, head over to our update page and download the latest version. The update page is here:   https://tradingstockalerts.com/software/downloadpatch Contact us if you have questions or identify any new issues.