Skip to main content

Cirrus Logic - overbought or room to run?

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) is a semiconductor manufacturer focused on mixed-signal and analog integrated circuits used in consumer and industrial markets. The company specializes in various audio/visual applications, DVD recorders/players, home theater systems, analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog converters, embedded microprocessors, etc.

Cirrus Logic was identified a couple of weeks ago in our Alert HQ market scan as a BUY. Since then it has gained well over 20%. Just take a look at the chart below.

Chart of CRUS
There appear to be several recent drivers for the excellent stock performance.

An SEC investigation in the company's stock option practices was concluded with no recommendations for enforcement actions.

The company is closing a Chinese subsidiary, Caretta Integrated Circuits, thus removing a management distraction.

The stock was upgraded by an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. The call was based on a report that Wolfson Microelectronics, a competitor of Cirrus, wasn't selected by a major customer for inclusion in the next generation of its portable media player. It is thought that the customer is Apple. The analyst is looking at this as an opportunity for Cirrus Logic to gain market share. Cirrus has already won a contract to provide chips for the iPod Classic and it probably has the inside track for the new version, as well.

All of these events transpired in March. The stock had already bottomed out and turned up by the beginning of March. In the middle of the month the stock really took off and moved up about 25%. Still, these events by themselves don't seem important enough to have pushed the stock up that much. It appears that the company is on track to start growing earnings again and that, I would submit, is the primary driver.

Over the last four years, the company's revenues have been slowly decreasing on an annual basis. Earnings on an annual basis have been quite erratic including a loss in 2005.

The picture brightens somewhat when we look at the last four sequential quarters. Revenues have been up the last two quarters, registering 14% and 4% quarter over quarter gains , respectively. Expenses have been problematical with elevated R&D and G&A costs causing operating earnings to swing negative in the most recent quarter. Nevertheless, the company posted income of $4.2 million in the most recent quarter versus a loss of $0.3 million in the previous quarter.

Over the last few quarters, the company has absorbed a number of restructuring charges and losses on sale of investments. The closing of the China subsidiary will hit the income statement for another $11 to $13 million in charges.

It is not surprising to see the stock's RSI firmly in the over-bought range given the recent run-up. Still, it is hard to see how the stock can hold on to these gains given the financial backdrop. Indeed, Monday's action saw the stock give back 4.5%. I can only assume that the flow of business from Apple is expected to turn into a tsunami.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?

A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months. Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy: Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries A "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation ...

Trade Radar gets another update

Some of our data sources changed again and it impacted our ability to load fundamental/financial data. In response, we are rolling out a new version of the software: 7.1.24 The data sourcing issues are fixed and some dead links in the Chart menu were removed. So whether you are a registered user or someone engaged in the free trial, head over to our update page and download the latest version. The update page is here:   https://tradingstockalerts.com/software/downloadpatch Contact us if you have questions or identify any new issues.

Time to be conservative with your 401K

Most of the posts I and other financial bloggers write are typically focused on individual stocks or ETFs and managing active portfolios. For those folks who are more conservative investors, those whose main investment vehicle is a 401K, for example, the techniques for portfolio management might be a little different. The news of stock markets falling and pundits predicting recession is disconcerting to professional investors as well as to those of us who are watching our balances in an IRA or 401K sag. What approach should the average 401K investor take? Let's assume that the investor is contributing on a regular basis to one of these retirement accounts. There are two questions that the investor needs to ask: 1. Should I stop putting the regular contribution into stocks? My feeling is that investors making regular contributions are being handed a present by the markets. Every week the market goes down, these investors are lowering their average cost. When markets reco...