The Federal Reserve just released the Industrial Production numbers for October. The headline number, a 1.3% gain, was unexpectedly good due to the resumption of refining and manufacturing activities in the Gulf region after hurricanes Gustav and Hanna. But what about tech?
Below we show a chart of Industrial Production for the sub-category of Computers and Peripheral Equipment. There is a clear drop off in production. In terms of percentage change, the current down-trend is not huge. What is disturbing is that typically the months of September and October show growth as manufacturers of computers and peripherals build inventory for the holiday shopping season. Here we see the opposite effect: rather than growth we have a decline. The numbers for the semiconductor sector look pretty much the same.
The next chart comes from the Federal Reserve. It includes Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for high tech industries.
There are some interesting features in this chart. For one, technology has held up quite well compared to many other industry sectors. Take a look at the chart below that presents Consumer Durables, Industrial Materials, Business Equipment and a few others. Those sectors look like they are plummeting while Tech looks like it is merely encountering a slowdown.
It is undeniable that Tech is facing a serious slowdown. Witness the downbeat guidance from Cisco. The there was the surprise announcement from Intel that they expected revenue to come in $1 billion below forecasts.
Still technology seems to be in much better shape than some other industries. Comparisons to the 2001-to-2003 tech crash do seem unwarranted. Though production is slowing, tech capacity utilization is far above what was seen after the Internet bubble burst.
As I have suggested in a prior post, large cap tech could be the sector that leads stocks out of this bear market. Tech seems to be down but not dead. As we have rotated out of the leaders of the last bull market - financial and commodity stocks - investors are likely to embrace a completely different sector. Technology's latent strength makes it a good candidate.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Industrial Production - tech rolls over, too
Support our
sponsors
Four Complimentary Videos
Our affliate INO.com has just given readers of the TradeRadar blog complimentary access to four educational trading videos that focus on Technical Analysis and Trend Trading.
You know we talk about trend reversals and trend busters at TradeRadar all the time. Check out what Adam Hewison of MarketClub has to say on the subject and how you can use his techniques to make money with stocks. Here is a list of the videos he has for you:
VIDEO 1.) Basic Indicators to Analyze Markets
VIDEO 2.) Using Predicted High and Predicted Low to Trade Intraday
VIDEO 3.) Strategy Trading Using Next Day Predictive Highs and Lows
VIDEO 4.) Using "Differences" to Spot Shifts in Momentum
There is no charge as this is part of an educational program that we thought you would find beneficial. Simply click the following link for free access to Trend TV: Free Videos at Trend TVBlog Archive
-
►
2010
(55)
-
►
March
(9)
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, March 11, 2010
- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, March 9, 2010
- Large-cap tech entering a period of out-performanc...
- Fighting cyber attacks and hackers a growth indust...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, march 4, 2010
- Cool cash sets these 5 stocks apart
- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, March 2, 2010
- Intel bails on agreement with TSMC - what does it ...
-
►
February
(23)
- This rally's not dead yet, is it?
- Simple value screen yields 8 more strong trending ...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Tech investors have plenty to smile about -- Jan 2...
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Feb 25, 2010
- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Feb 23, 2010
- What about beta?
- Reviewing the charts -- can this rally last?
- Is it the real thing for REITs this time?
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Rebound slowing but not over yet -- Alert HQ signa...
- Reasonable value and attractive charts - 8 stocks ...
- Optimism returns -- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, ...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Feb 11, 2010
- Gabelli and Morgan Stanley go for tech - here's wh...
- The Bulls are back but will they stick around? -- ...
- Can you still be a bull when this market's technic...
- Dividends save the day -- 10 stocks with strong up...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Vicious selloff slaps TradeRadar - Alert HQ for Th...
- The Bulls are back! -- Alert HQ signals for Tuesd...
- Tech sector earnings scorecard - tech still can't ...
-
►
January
(23)
- Fannie and Freddie man up, push worst loans back t...
- Stock market outlook - always darkest before the d...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 28, 2010
- Glimmers of hope at last? -- Alert HQ signals for ...
- Tech sector earnings scorecard - Time to get bulli...
- This market will recover sooner rather than later ...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Are we sufficiently oversold yet? - Alert HQ signa...
- Ten stocks with strong charts and reasonable valua...
- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Jan 19, 2010
- Double Dip, New Normal? - Jeremy Siegel doesn't bu...
- After a mixed week, caution may be the best short-...
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 14, 2010
- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Jan 12, 2010
- Iron Mountain breaking out - should you invest?
- Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL...
-
►
March
(9)
-
▼
2008
(266)
-
▼
November
(24)
- Weekly review - after the rally comes the wall of ...
- Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Nov 28, 2008 - th...
- Trend Leaders for Nov 28, 2008 - free list of char...
- Eight new ProShares ETFs - what they're all about
- Quick chart review - stocks pop, can they keep it ...
- Weekly review - stocks break down, can they dig th...
- Trend Leaders for Nov 21, 2008 - free list of char...
- Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Nov 21, 2008
- What's up with the lowly LED?
- Part 2 - ultra short ETFs at a tipping point?
- Industrial Production - tech rolls over, too
- Weekly review - consumers cut back and stocks get ...
- Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Nov 14, 2008
- Trend Leaders - the free list of stocks for Nov 14...
- Chart review - ultra short ETFs at a tipping point...
- Is Qualcomm the best semiconductor company in the ...
- Skyworks - why is this company smiling?
- Introducing Trend Leaders - a free list of stocks ...
- Weekly Review - is this rally still alive?
- Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Nov 7, 2008
- How will $200 netbooks affect the PC industry?
- Weekly Review - sentiment turns, can momentum carr...
- Yes, Virginia, it's a tradeable rally!
- Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Oct 31, 2008 (BU...
-
▼
November
(24)
| Disclaimer: This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. |

Subscribe to



- click for Related Content



0 comments:
Post a Comment