IDC forecasts slower PC growth - how bad will it be?

IDC, a provider of market intelligence for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets, released their forecast for PC shipments.

With the economic downturn impacting all kinds of products, IDC expects demand for PCs to slow significantly. The report forecasts continued growth, just growth not as strong as previously expected.

"IDC expects worldwide PC shipments to grow just 3.8% in 2009 with shipment value falling by 5.3%. This is considerably slower than second quarter projections of 13.7% growth in units and 4.5% in shipment value. The outlook for full year 2008 and 2010 have each been lowered a couple percent to 12.4% and 10.9%, respectively, with growth above 12% for 2011 and 2012."

We took the IDC data and plotted it in the chart below.


The three take aways from this chart are as follows:

• Growth in portable PCs (notebooks, laptops, netbooks) will remain relatively robust
• Desktop PCs and servers are most vulnerable and growth is expected to contract before resuming its upward trend
• The overall worldwide trend is still up
  

The bottom line is that PC growth may slow in certain segments but worldwide total sales will slowly continue on their upward trajectory and begin to accelerate after 2009. Considering the current state of the economy, that's pretty good news for PC, disk drive and semiconductor manufacturers.

On the other hand, with things the way they are these days, can any forecast be relied upon?

Source: IDC - PC Market Will Slow As Financial Turmoil Spreads, According to IDC