Monday, November 30, 2009

Q3-2009 Growth Report - Part 2. Who are the Growth Elite?

Last week I released the first part of this series entitled "Q3 Growth Report - Part 1". In that post I presented some of the data compiled by our Alert HQ processes. The focus was on Revenue and earnings per share. I contrasted 2009 Q1 and Q2 results with our recent Q3 results. In this post, I'll do the same with dividends.

Increasing Dividends --

For today's purposes, I'll highlight the companies that managed to increase dividends this quarter.

The following table provides the comparison among the three quarters:


Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009
In S&P 500
140
112
104
All stocks
829
778
826

The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that increased their dividend and have made it onto Part 2 of this quarter’s report has decreased yet again though only by a little.

More encouraging, the number of stocks that raised their dividend is up by more than 6%. Note that we are looking at a universe of roughly 7000 stocks.

Repeat winners --

There were 516 stocks that were listed in both the Q1 and Q2 reports and 550 that qualified in both the Q2 and Q3 reports. Then we have 334 stocks that are on all three lists. These are the real dividend growers but unfortunately there are too many to list here; therefore, I have listed them in the spreadsheet that contains the detailed lists from which the table above was derived. You can download the Q3 dividend spreadsheet by clicking on this link.

Growth Elite --

The nine stocks in the following table were obtained by looking for those that were included in both types of Growth Report. In other words, these are the stocks that raised dividends as well as showed growth in earnings and revenues for the last three quarters.

Symbol
Name
AVCA
Advocat, Inc.
FMR
FIRST MERCURY FINANCIAL CORPORATION
HTS
HATTERAS FINANCIAL CORP.
MNRO
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.
NHC
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP.
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc.
RTN
RAYTHEON COMPANY
SEP
SPECTRA ENERGY PARTNERS, LP
TJX
TJX COMPANIES, INC. (THE)

Is growth rewarded?


I had expected to see that the growth elite, those nine stocks in the table above, would have also exhibited strong stock price appreciation. My feeling was that this kind of consistent financial performance would have guaranteed price gains across the board. To my surprise, that was not the case.

To be sure, most of the stocks in this table have performed very well but a few of them have been less than stellar. Let's run through the weekly charts.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So out of nine stocks with consistent improvement in their financial results, only two, First Mercury Financial (FMR) and National HealthCare (NHC) have done relatively poorly.

The rest have been pretty strong performers and only one failed to show gains exceeding those exhibited by the major averages. The S&P 500 is up roughly 30% since January 1, 2009. Of the seven best performing stocks in this list, most registered gains of 40% to 100%, well exceeding the gain of the market.

All in all, membership in the Growth Elite seems to be a pretty decent predictor of superior gains.

Disclosure: no positions in any stocks mentioned in this post.



What would you like the TradeRadar software to do?

I would like to extend my thanks to the many hundreds of people who have downloaded the TradeRadar software during the last few months.

Thus far, the software has been available from our Download page free of charge.

I am in the process now of creating a shareware version of the software. There will be enhanced capabilities for both technical and fundamental analysis.

Before releasing the new version, I would like to hear from you, the users.

What features are you most interested in seeing in the new version?

Please leave a comment or email me with your suggestions.




Sunday, November 29, 2009

Serious break on the charts? How worried should you be?


Stocks started another week with a very strong Monday performance. Friday's shortened session, however,  was long enough to more than erase the earlier gains of many stocks and ETFs.

Talk of "sovereign default" related to the Dubai World request for a debt "standstill" overcame most other news that had transpired during the course of the week. As a result, charts suddenly appear to have broken down.

Below is the chart of the S&P 500. That big red bar representing Friday's action is clearly visible and it certainly looks like a dangerous downdraft, signalling more pain ahead.



But is this really a serious break? Was Friday's volume so low just because it was an abbreviated session? Or wasn't there much conviction to the sell-off? What do the Alert HQ statistics suggest?

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:



This first chart presents our moving average analysis. The chart shows that roughly half of the stocks and ETFs we track are still above their 50-day MA. Not shown on the chart is that less than 40% are above their 20-DMA. As shown by the magenta line, the number of stocks whose 20-DMA is above their 50-DMA is slowly dwindling but is still above 57% which is not too bad. Despite the sell-off at the end of the week, data on this chart suggests that stocks are holding their own and may not have much further to fall.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. It looks at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis.



A notable feature of today's chart is that the number of stocks in up-trends actually increased this week despite the Dubai news and the Friday sell-off. In addition, the number of stocks in down-trends did not increase. Furthermore, the number of up-trends has just crossed above the number of down-trends. There is a good potential that we are seeing early signs of stocks gathering themselves for another run to new highs.

Conclusion --

Stocks had been going nowhere for the last two to three weeks. At first glance, Friday's action appears to have resolved the indecision - the new direction is now to the downside. Or is it?

Our statistics as displayed in the charts above show that stocks are still somewhat firm. The Dubai sell-off did some damage but, to truly push markets lower, we will need another catalyst. With earnings season over, we can look to economics reports to drive the markets.

Certainly, there will be plenty of data for investors to munch on. This week will bring November Construction Spending, the ISM Index, Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales, Truck Sales, ADP Employment Report, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Beige Book, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Q3 Productivity and Labor Costs, the Employment Cost Index, ISM Services Index, Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings and Factory Orders.

Given that the economy is improving but is not yet out of the woods, a slate of reports this large is bound to cause some volatility. This means we could indeed see more downside. But if the charts above are showing the underlying strength that I think they are, then, barring a huge disappointment in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, stocks might actually start to rebound by the end of the week.

So have the charts broken down? Yes, but not seriously. Keep in mind, the primary trend remains UP.



Saturday, November 28, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 27, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:

  • Based on daily data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signals and 20 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signals and 32 SELL signals
  • We have 54 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 134 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 860 Cash Flow Kings
  • 25 Swing Signals -- 14 BUY signals and 10 SELL Signals and 1 Strong SELL.
  • 236 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 6 stocks that are new additions to the list and 82 that fell off the previous list.
  • 28 Trend Busters based on daily data. We also have 222 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
  • 203 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 65 Gap Signals based on weekly data.
The view from Alert HQ --

There wasn't much to be thankful for in the stock market this week, though maybe we should be thankful U.S. markets didn't fall further than they actually did.

Stocks climbed earlier in the week though they failed to establish any new highs. On Thursday overseas markets plunged as more details emerged regarding the Dubai World debt situation. The company, largely owned by the government of Dubai (and, thus, indirectly by the United Arab Emirates of which Dubai is a member), announced that they were looking for a debt restructuring. The banks that were likely to take the biggest beating on loans to Dubai World were not U.S. banks except for Citi (yes, Citi always seems to be there when the music stops and something is imploding). Nonetheless, when U.S. markets opened again on Friday, major averages dropped in sympathy and the financials took the worst hit.

When all the dust settled on the week, losses were minor in the U.S. The Dow ended down a mere 0.1%, the S&P 500 was flat on the week and the NASDAQ lost 0.4%. Once again, small-caps underperformed and the Russell 2000 lost 1.3%.

Here at Alert HQ, the signals have tilted bearish. SELL signals outnumber BUY signals on the Alert HQ reversal lists and the Gap Analysis lists. The Trend Busters lists are especially negative. The one based on daily data is full of BUY signals for inverse leveraged ETFs. The one based on weekly data has a mere 6 BUY signals and a whopping 216 SELL signals. I could ignore the daily Trend Busters if so many of the SELL signals on the weekly list weren't the un-leveraged ETFs that track import indexes like the Russell 2000, Russell Micro-cap, the Dow Jones US Financial index and various other flavors of small-cap and financial indexes. If those sectors are really in decline, the market will find it hard to make much progress.

All is not gloom, however. The Trend Leaders list is sort of holding steady, albeit at a rather low number. The Swing Signals list still has a few more BUY signals than SELL signals. This implies that stocks aren't plunging across the board.

With early reports that Black Friday shopping was robust perhaps sentiment will shift positive and we'll see a floor here. For the last week or two, I have been suggesting stocks may be stuck in a range so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the decline arrested somewhere around S&P 1075. In the meantime, be sure your stops are in order.

Using our signals --

Visit Alert HQ to view or download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Gaps and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Wednesday, November 25, 2009

OK, Gartner, where's the growth in PC sales?

The Advance Report for Durable Goods for October was released on Wednesday; Bloomberg characterized it as "tepid". That was a fair statement. As usual, we'll zero in on the Tech sector and see how the hardware vendors performed.

Shipments --

Typically, investors pay the most attention to shipments and new orders. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment.




It's a relief to see shipments increasing after two months of declines. Not only that, there seems to be confirmation that the lows are now behind us.

This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category.



Ouch! Shipments for Computers and related products dropped to a new low. Gartner and iSuppli have not only been forecasting increases in PC sales they have been ratcheting up their forecasts for the last few months. So far, actual data is not supporting these forecasts.

Next is the chart for Communications Equipment. The numbers include both defense and non-defense equipment.



There has been some worry about this segment. With the perception that the new administration in Washington is less likely to support the defense industry, it is perhaps some surprise that shipments are up reasonably strongly here.

This next chart shows Semiconductor shipments.



Semiconductors were the stars in October. Shipments increased 25% month-over-month and seem to confirm the up-trend that started during the summer.

New Orders --

Now for the forward looking measure. This next chart shows New Orders for the tech sector as a whole.



This is not particularly encouraging. New Orders are down for the third month in a row. We are not approaching new lows but the up-trend certainly doesn't look particularly strong.

Our next chart shows new orders for the Computers and Related Products sub-category.



As with Shipments in the chart presented above, we see a significant drop off in New Orders, a decline of 7.2% month-over-month.Once again, we are within a hair of a new low. When are those rosy forecasts going to kick in?

Our last chart, New orders for Communications Equipment, is presented below.



The slight decline in October is at least better than the sizable decline we saw September.

Conclusion --

Tech has been underperforming gold and materials over the last couple of months and a few of these charts help to explain why.

Despite the buzz around smart phones, PC sales being driven by the release of Windows 7 and positive results and outlooks from bellwethers like Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), it appears that the hi-tech hardware sector is still limping along with inconsistent results.

The silver lining in this cloud, however, is the semiconductor sector. Most hardware is dependent on semiconductors. With shipments up so strongly in the chip sector, it suggests that the other sectors will soon see some of the growth that Gartner and others are predicting.

Let's hope those forecasts are right.


Disclosure: long ROM and USD



Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gaps for Nov 24, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 21 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals.
  • 270 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 142 stocks that are new additions to the list and 78 that fell off the previous list.
  • 27 Trend Busters of which 23 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.
  • 194 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 119 are bearish gaps and 75 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Over the weekend I declared that caution was in order. Monday stocks rallied but Tuesday they fell back. In terms of the short-term action, neither new highs nor new lows were set. Markets continue to move sideways without any strong indication as to which direction is next.

Looking at the Trend Leaders list, though, the current state of the market is on display. Health care stocks and ETFs, gold miners, materials stocks and ETFs/ETNs covering everything from copper to cotton, grains to gold.

Though the market may be directionless, there are still some interesting selections on our lists. One example, taken from the Trend Busters list, is Ralcorp Holdings (RAH). This stock looks to be making a serious reversal to the upside. Our Gap Analysis list has Loral (LORL) which appears to be moving upward nicely on a  good-sized gap after bouncing off its 50-DMA.

Caution may be the word today but there are always some stocks that are in the process of making a move. Browse our Alert HQ stock lists and you're sure to find a few.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Monday, November 23, 2009

Q3-2009 Growth Report - Part 1


The third quarter earnings season is about over. It's time to take stock (no pun intended, well, maybe it was).

After each quarter's earnings season, I try to pull together what I call the Growth Report. Part 1 compiles the list of stocks that have shown a year-over-year increase in both revenue and earnings AND a sequential quarter-over-quarter increase in both revenue and earnings. Given the perception that the economic downturn is easing, it will be interesting to see how many companies have been able to to pull off this trick.

The following table presents a comparison of the last three quarters:


Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009
In S&P 500
27
41
39
All stocks
218
312
281

The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that qualified as growth leaders and made it onto the Q2 Growth Report grew by 50% over the first quarter. Comparisons, however, are becoming more difficult. In Q3, we are actually seeing a small decrease is the number of growth leaders as compared to Q2.

Repeat winners --

There are 33 stocks that managed to make the list in all three quarters this year. These stocks are not only growth leaders they are truly consistent growth leaders during difficult economic times. Here's the list :

Symbol
Name
AIRM
Air Methods Corporation
AMED
Amedisys Inc
APT
ALPHA PRO TECH, LTD.
ASIA
AsiaInfo Holdings, Inc.
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
CNU
CONTINUCARE CORPORATION
COCO
Corinthian Colleges, Inc.
CRM
SALESFORCE.COM, INC.
CRN
CORNELL COMPANIES, INC.
CTFO
China TransInfo Technology Corp.
CUB
CUBIC CORPORATION
EBIX
Ebix Inc
EBS
EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS, INC.
FMR
FIRST MERCURY FINANCIAL CORPORATION
GTS
TRIPLE-S MANAGEMENT CORP.
HTS
HATTERAS FINANCIAL CORP.
IDCC
InterDigital, Inc.
INMD
IntegraMed America, Inc.
LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation
MED
MEDIFAST, INC.
NHC
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP.
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc.
SEP
SPECTRA ENERGY PARTNERS, LP
SF
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP.
SQM
SOCIEDAD QUIMICA Y MINERA DE CHILE SA
SVT
SERVOTRONICS, INC.
TNDM
Neutral Tandem, Inc.
TRU
TORCH ENERGY ROYALTY TRUST
TSTC
Telestone Technologies Corp.
TYL
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
VIT
VANCEINFO TECHNOLOGIES INC
YORW
The York Water Company

Interestingly, this is exactly half as many stocks as we saw when combining Q1 and Q2.

Conclusion --

Even as many companies beat earnings estimates this quarter, there was still much concern over the fact that revenues were not growing as fast as many analysts had hoped. Again, cost cutting helped many companies achieved their profitable results. Our results seem to bear this out -  there was no increase in the number of stocks that registered sequential and year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings. Indeed, the numbers decreased a litlle.

This makes the achievement of the stocks that did register strong results all the more remarkable.
You can click this link to download a spreadsheet that lists all the individual stocks that qualified for the Q3 Growth Report.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of the Q3 Growth Report where we discuss the those stocks that raised their dividends in the last quarter.



Rising tide fails to lift all boats - what happens now when the tide goes out?

Though the primary trend of the market continues to be up, the last few days had an ugly feel to them. Stocks encountered significant selling pressure on Thursday and on Friday the dip buyers were noticeably absent.

So have stocks topped out again? If so, is it a pause in the uptrend or something more?

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:



This first chart tracks our moving average analysis. The count of stocks above their 50-DMA (the yellow line), hit its most recent low a month ago at the end of October. Since then this count has rebounded. The last two days of this week, despite the sell-off in stocks, hasn't had much of an effect. Yet...

So far about 50% of the roughly 7200 stocks and ETFs that we evaluate each weekend are still above their 50-DMA. In what may portend further declines to come, we see the magenta line which tracks the number of stocks whose 20-DMA is above their 50-DMA continues to weaken. This shows a steady increase in the number of stocks whose short-term trends are no longer bullish and are heading for that bearish the cross-over below the 50-DMA.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. It looks at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis.



This chart is in an odd state. Since we started tracking these numbers back in February 2008, we have usually seen that one indicator is up while the other is down. What we are seeing now is that both indicators are at historically low numbers. This suggests we have a market that is not trending at all but is stuck in a range. If you look at a chart of the major indexes like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite, you would think we are in a clearly UP-trending market. What the chart above is saying is that some sectors of the market may not doing all that great.

As confirmation, take a look at the weekly chart of the Russell 2000, below:



The Russell 2000 is still in a primary up trend; however, recent price action has been choppy and the index has failed to make a new high. Contrast the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, with the following weekly chart of the S&P 500:



The S&P 500 is clearly in an uptrend that has been virtually uninterrupted. It is easy for investors following this index to think that the entire market is doing quite well when in actuality, a selection of large-cap stocks are the ones doing well.

Conclusion --

Our statistics suggest that market tone is changing. Whereas it seemed that the rally of the last six months represented the rising tide lifting all boats, now it appears that some boats are more buoyant than others.And at the moment, a lot of boats are taking on water.

Furthermore, there is a definite change in the markets. The current uptrend is losing steam and according to our trend analysis we are beginning a period of treading water. A more worrisome interpretation, however, is that stocks are at a unique point of equilibrium where the upward momentum has gone to zero and the downward momentum has not yet begun to pick up. In mathematical terms, both the first and second derivatives have gone to zero.In more common parlance, we're at a tipping point.

Tides, boats and tipping points - too many metaphors to get a clear idea of where this market is going. This is a good time to exercise caution.



Saturday, November 21, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 20, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:

  • Based on daily data, we have 6 Alert HQ BUY signals and 6 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signals and 58 SELL signals
  • We have 60 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 192 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 860 Cash Flow Kings
  • 23 Swing Signals -- 21 BUY signals and 2 SELL Signals.
  • 206 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 45 stocks that are new additions to the list and 120 that fell off the previous list.
  • 22 Trend Busters based on daily data. Today, every single one is a BUY signal! We also have 154 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
  • 221 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 66 Gap Signals based on weekly data.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks started the week with a nice rally but quickly ran out of steam. By Friday, the NASDAQ had suffered a 1% loss and, among the other major averages, the Dow was the only one to register a gain.

Tech encountered a double whammy with the semiconductor sector collecting a downgrade and Dell reporting significantly disappointing earnings. On the other hand, many retailers reported earnings and the news wasn't too bad. Economic reports were few and had little impact.

What did impact our signals at Alert HQ were the last two days of the week. Concerted selling on both days snapped the nice run of positive BUY signals. We now have a Trend Leaders list that is only one third the size it was earlier in the week. We are seeing leveraged inverse ETFs showing up as BUYs on the Trend Busters list. For those who follow our signals based on weekly data, we have a big increase SELL signals.

The takeaway is that caution is now required. Things started getting choppy during the previous week and this most recent week sees some major averages breaking below the first and weakest support level. Given the stair-step fashion in which indexes have been climbing, we can expect at least another 2% drop before stocks run into a serious support level that coincides with an important moving average. So by mid-week we should have some clues as to how serious this current decline will turn out to be.

In the meantime, keep an eye on our Swing Signals. When they turn up strongly after a downturn, that's the time to jump into the market.

Using our signals --

Visit Alert HQ to view or download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Gaps and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Thursday, November 19, 2009

Another top? - Alert HQ signals for Nov 19, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 31 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 16 SELL Signals.
  • 283 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 53 stocks that are new additions to the list and 181 that fell off the previous list.
  • 17 Trend Busters of which 14 are BUY signals and 3 are SELL signals.
  • 218 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 118 are bearish gaps and 100 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

No denying it was an ugly market today. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 1.56%. Investors in the semiconductor sector (like myself) had it even worse as the sector collected a downgrade and plunged more than 3% with a big gap at the open.

Needless to say, our signals are rolling over. I had expected this cycle to continue a bit further before pulling back but I was apparently wrong.After today's action, it's no wonder the signals show all the signs of a top. The Trend Leaders list has shrunk significantly, bearish gaps outnumber bullish gaps. Our leading indicator, the Swing Signals list has gone from overwhelmingly bullish to split pretty much evenly between SELL signals and BUY signals. Momentum has now gone out the window. I would like to say that there is a glimmer of bullishness in our Trend Busters list where the BUY signals still well outnumber SELL signals. Unfortunately, most of the BUY signals are for leveraged inverse ETFs.

So it looks like it's time to revisit your stops. There is no indication yet that the primary trend is anything but UP. Still, you never know.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gaps for Nov 17, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 22 Swing Signals -- 19 BUY signals and 3 SELL Signals.
  • 411 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 191 stocks that are new additions to the list and 62 that fell off the previous list.
  • 56 Trend Busters of which 52 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.
  • 225 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 108 are bearish gaps and 117 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks struggled today but managed to end with minor gains. Still, it was enough to allow the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 to hit new 52-week highs.

Are stocks getting over-extended here? Our signals are beginning to indicate that we're getting closer to that state but that we're not yet there. Every time the Trend Leaders list gets up into the range from 800 to 1000 stocks on it, you can bet we're ready for a pullback. With only 411 stocks on today's list, I don't think we're too overbought yet.

The fact that the list of Swing Trading Signals only has 22 stocks on it shows that the current cycle is getting a little long in the tooth. Still, the large majority of signals on this list and the Trend Busters list are BUY signals. That tells me that the rally has some strength left in it.

As I've been saying for the last couple of weeks, the primary trend is UP. Trade accordingly.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Monday, November 16, 2009

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?


A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months.

Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy:
  1. Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries
  2. A "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation targeting, a floating exchange rate and primary fiscal surpluses (the surplus before interest payments are made to service debts). This sensibility has been extended by the current administration that has given the Central Bank greater operational autonomy, raised the target for the primary fiscal surplus, pursued policies of "de-dollarizing" public debt and building a large cushion of foreign exchange reserves to reduce external vulnerabilities.
  3. Some observers say that Brazil has "put its house in order" -- by consolidating public finances and taming inflation -- and has achieved a "happy medium" between the roles of the public and private sectors. They contend there is a broad consensus between the political class and business sector over the macroeconomic policy orientation.
  4. The structure of Brazil's economy provides benefits. The country has a large and growing domestic market, and its exports account for less than 15% of GDP. That's lower than most other emerging markets, and local demand has been sustained through targeted tax breaks and a cycle of monetary easing. Also, backed by a large cushion of reserves amassed in recent years, the Central Bank was able to offer dollar liquidity at the height of the global financial crisis to companies needing to refinance.
  5. The financial sector isn't wounded. Brazil's banks haven't had to deal with the toxic assets that crippled banks in developed countries. Unlike their counterparts elsewhere, Brazilian banks were not as exposed to the property sector and credit derivatives, and financial soundness indicators were robust coming into the crisis. A key reason for the sector's resilience is a high capitalization requirement -- the minimum capital adequacy requirement in Brazil is 11%, compared with 8% under the Basel regulations that other banks around the world follow. In December 2008, the average ratio for the sector in Brazil was 20%, and for the country's five largest banks (accounting for 67% of total assets) the ratio was 18.5%
  6. Brazil's labor force has been growing and, as we are seeing in China, is expected to be among the main factors that will drive domestic consumption over the medium term.
  7. Brazilians believe that a sense of urgency created by the staging of the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016 can be "very positive" as it spurs the public and private sectors to carry out badly needed infrastructure investments.

Some problems remain --

Things in Brazil are going well but not everything is perfect. Businessmen point to poor infrastructure and issues related to weak tax and labor reform. It will be difficult for the country's public and private sectors to tackle their greatest challenge: bridging the gap between Brazil's "separate countries" -- the first world at the core of its big cities with world-leading companies and high purchasing power, and the third world keeping millions living in poverty in smaller cities and the countryside.

Despite these problems, there are more things going right than are going wrong. As confirmation, S&P and Fitch upgraded their ratings for the country in April and May, followed by Moody's this September. The World Bank predicts that if Brazil continues on the path it is on now, it will move from being the tenth largest economy in the world today to the fifth largest by 2016.

That doesn't seem like the description of a bubble to me.

How to play it --

There are a number of ETFs that provide exposure to Brazil.

The largest and most liquid is the iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) which tracks the MSCI Brazil Index and contains 67 Brazilian companies that trade primarily on the Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo. It covers roughly 85% of the Brazilian stock market.

There is the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF) from Van Eck. This ETF is comprised of more of the smaller companies that are less dependent on exports. This ETF is a bet on the continued growth of a consuming middle class.

There is also the Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund (BZF). This ETF is intended to provide currency exposure. BZF seeks to achieve returns that reflect money market rates in Brazil available to foreign investors and changes in value of the Brazilian real relative to the dollar.

Finally, if you want exposure to all of Latin America with a strong shot of Brazil included, there is the iShares S&P Latin America 40 ETF (ILF).This is route that I chose to take after seeing four or five Latin America country ETFs on the Swing Signals list a couple of months ago.Some of the largest holdings in this ETF are Brazilian stocks so it is tracking EWZ reasonably closely.



The chart above contrasts the performance of all four ETFs. Yes, they have shown steady gains. Today's analysis suggests that one of these ETFs could be a core holding over the long term.


Source: Lessons from Brazil: Why Is It Bouncing Back While Other Markets Stumble?



Saturday, November 14, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 13, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:

  • Based on daily data, we have 26 Alert HQ BUY signals and 12 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have no Alert HQ BUY signals and 42 SELL signals
  • We have 66 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 214 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 856 Cash Flow Kings
  • 27 Swing Signals -- 25 BUY signals and 2 SELL Signals.
  • 282 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 36 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 37 that fell off the previous list.
  • 64 Trend Busters based on daily data. Today, every single one is a BUY signal! We also have 87 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
  • 250 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 69 Gap Signals based on weekly data.
The view from Alert HQ --

All the major averages turned in gains this week. That doesn't hide the fact that bulls and bears are currently battling to see whether stocks can break to decisive new highs. The S&P 500 looks tired while the NASDAQ looks ready to push onward and upward. The Dow is also looking good while the Russell 2000, having failed to regain its 50-DMA, looks ready to capitulate. As you can see, there is little agreement between sectors, styles or investors.

That leaves us to try to read the intentions of Mr. Market from the clues provided by Alert HQ. As I have been saying all week (and last week, too) BUY signals greatly outnumber SELL signals; therefore, the primary trend is still UP. Looking for stocks that are not already at their peaks? Then the Alert HQ daily BUY signals, the Swing Trading Signals and the Trend Busters are providing plenty of candidates. This suggests that the market has room to move higher. With the Trend Leaders list holding less than 300 stocks or ETFs, we have another indicator saying that stocks still have room to run.

To give the bears their due, however, the choppy action of the last few days has definitely put a damper on our signals. The fact that, for the first time, we have absolutely no Alert HQ BUY signals based on weekly data shows that stocks could be bumping up against some serious near-term resistance.

With earnings season coming to a close, investors will need some new catalysts to justify a push to new highs, something besides a falling dollar. There have been some positive signs like M&A in the tech sector. Let's hope the coming week's retail sales and industrial production reports are equally positive.

Using our signals --

Visit Alert HQ to view or download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Gaps and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Thursday, November 12, 2009

Tech could pull stocks out of their slump - Alert HQ signals for Nov 12, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 30 Swing Signals -- 23 BUY signals and 7 SELL Signals.
  • 283 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 114 stocks that are new additions to the list and 40 that fell off the previous list.
  • 35 Trend Busters of which 31 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.
  • 255 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 120 are bearish gaps and 135 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --
 
Markets were weak today but our signals are holding their own.  BUY signals still well outnumber SELL signals and the Trend Leaders list has continued to expand.

On the other hand, the rally has progressed to the point where we have fewer candidates that are making it as Swing Trading BUY signals.This often happens when the majority of stocks have been in a trend for a while. Today's pullback, however, brings a note of doubt into the rally we have been enjoying for the last week or two.If we quickly pull out of the decline that began today, we could see a resurgence in Swing BUY Signals. If we don't, well, it could be cause for real worry.

The following chart shows how the S&P 500 has failed to make a convincing new high and then sold off today.



A hopeful sign suggesting that today's pullback is just a temporary and minor setback is that the technology sector is now outperforming the (always suspect in my eyes) financial sector. We can see from this next chart of the iShares Technology ETF that the sector rose further and today fell less than the S&P 500.



So, to me, it is reassuring to see a good number of tech stocks and ETFs (including IYW) added to the Trend Leaders list today.

In any case, markets can't go straight up so it's not much of a surprise to see stocks fall today. To my mind, though, the most deserving stocks are holding up best. And that implies the trend remains upward.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Wednesday, November 11, 2009

H-P buys 3Com -- so what?

Much is being made of the of the news that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has made a bid to acquire 3Com (COMS). This move is being characterized as a challenge to Cisco Systems (CSCO).

So how much of a challenge to Cisco is this?

A comparison of revenue is revealing.

The following table comes from H-P's 10-Q from September 2009 and shows the most recent quarter:

 
 
2009
 
2008
 
% Decrease
 
 
 
In millions
 
Net revenue
 
$
193
 
$
271
 
 
(28.8
)%
(Loss) earnings from operations
 
$
(10
)
$
26
 
 
(138.5
)%
(Loss) earnings from operations as a % of net revenue
 
 
(5.2
)%
 
9.6
%
 


The table shows the revenue and earnings from the Corporate Investments segment whose revenues are derived primarily from sales of networking infrastructure products sold under the ProCurve Networking brand.

The point of this is that, in a good year, the networking segment brings in revenue of maybe a billion dollars per year.

For the last few years, 3Com revenue has been somewhat flat in the neighborhood of $1.3 billion.

So for H-P, the 3Com acquisition is certainly a step forward.

But how does this compare to Cisco?

In its most recent quarter, Cisco had about $8.5 billion in revenue.In poking through their 10-Q the company didn't break out revenue by segment, only by geographical region. Taking a totally wild guess, let's say that Cisco's networking segment is responsible for half of total revenues or roughly $4.25 billion. That is probably conservative but implies annual revenue for the segment of $17 billion.

So at best, the new H-P networking group is only one eighth the size of Cisco's networking group. H-P will certainly provide competition but a challenge? Not so much.

Disclosure: no positions



Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Yes, this rally's still intact - Alert HQ signals for Nov 10, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 176 Swing Signals -- 171 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals.
  • 209 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 127 stocks that are new additions to the list and 17 that fell off the previous list.
  • 89 Trend Busters of which 84 are BUY signals and 5 are SELL signals.
  • 251 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 127 are bearish gaps and 124 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

A week ago the bears began throwing in the towel. The ensuing rally has been sharp and confirmed our bullish interpretation of the Alert HQ signals from the previous Tuesday. On Monday stocks soared further based on expectations governments would not withdraw stimulus and/or accommodative policies until the world economy was more clearly on its feet.

Today markets took a bit of a rest. So far it's nothing to be alarmed about. On the contrary, our signals are still largely bullish. We still have a hearty list of Swing Trading Signals, almost all of which are BUY signals. The Trend Leaders list is still expanding and the Trend Busters list is completely dominated by BUY signals. And there still seems to be plenty of room to run, at least until we see that Trend Leaders list begins to hold 800 to 1000 stocks and ETFs.

In our opinion, it's not too late for a trade. Furthermore, the primary trend remains up so there's plenty of opportunity remaining in stocks and ETFs for the intermediate-term investor. As always, the TradeRadar signals have a good selection of stocks to choose from.

More on technical analysis --

Readers of this blog know that these lists of alerts are all based on technical analysis of price and volume data and that we aren't really bringing financial or fundamental data into the equation.

If you're interested in delving further into technical analysis, our affiliate INO TV is running a series of seminars on the subject. First up is John Murphy, an award winning teacher and author whose seminars are usually reserved for paying attendees. So feel free to take advantage of the chance to learn from a man with over 30 years successfully trading using technical analysis. Check out John Murphy at INO TV today. There's no charge!

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Monday, November 9, 2009

Another tactic in Google's bid to capture the enterprise - when will Microsoft start to sweat?

Much of the attention Monday was given to the announcement that Google was acquiring AdMob. This fits neatly and predictably into the search giant's strategy of dominating online advertising.

What was not discussed as loudly is Google's relentless push into Microsoft's turf. Google is serious about gaining access to enterprise computing and the company recognizes where improvements need to be made.

Google has been pushing a couple of initiatives targeted to the enterprise. One is their search appliance. The other is Google Apps. The Google Apps suite of applications includes Gmail, Google Talk, Google Calendar, Google Docs and Google Sites. These tools are meant to support individual work and communication as well as collaboration.

There has been some acceptance of these tools among corporations. At $50 per person per year, the Apps Premier product offering is clearly a cost effective alternative to the Microsoft Office suite of tools. The problem, however, has been security.

IT managers have been reluctant to accept Google Apps. With the applications living in the cloud, IT managers have little control over the administration and security associated with the users, the data and the applications. Google has sought to address those concerns today.

What's Postini?

Postini was a company and also the name of a security tool. Google acquired Postini back in 2007. The company's premier product was designed for establishing and enforcing usage policies, rules and parameters on email. After the acquisition, Google integrated the Postini code into Gmail. This now allows IT personnel to administer Gmail in an enterprise environment to enforce security policies.

Google has now announced that they are working to roll out the Postini functionality across the entire suite of Google Apps.This will eventually allow administrators to set up rules that, for example, would prevent users from sharing a document that includes financial information outside the domain. This will provide a new level of control over how end-users share and collaborate on documents within the Google Apps infrastructure.

This whole initiative is meant to make it easier for Google Apps to make inroads into the enterprise. By overcoming the reservations and objections of IT administrators, Google hopes to make the Apps suite more competitive with the traditional (and expensive) desktop applications sold by Microsoft. In general, that implies Microsoft loses each time Google gains.

One final note: Google claims to make 100s of millions of dollars in revenues from the Google Apps products. For most other companies, that would be a significant amount of money. For Google, which racked up roughly $22 billion in revenue in 2008, Google Apps is a drop in the bucket. It behooves Google, therefore, to do what it can to ramp up the product or pull the plug. It looks like Google is willing to invest to make the product competitive and go toe to toe with Microsoft. Nevertheless, it will be quite a while before Microsoft begins to sweat.



Saturday, November 7, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 6, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:

  • Based on daily data, we have 61 Alert HQ BUY signals and 29 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 1 Alert HQ BUY signal and 53 SELL signals
  • We have 69 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 194 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 854 Cash Flow Kings
  • 176 Swing Signals -- 171 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals.
  • 99 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 29 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 11 that fell off the previous list.
  • 55 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 52 are BUY signals and 3 are SELL signals. We also have 118 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
  • 252 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 55 Gap Signals based on weekly data.
The view from Alert HQ --

All the major averages gained roughly 3% this week. That seems to have effectively ended the recent pullback before it could become a correction.

Accordingly, we've got Alert HQ BUY signals busting out all over. At least that's true in those situations where we are basing our signals on daily data. Where we are using weekly data, we get the opposite situation. This implies the move in our daily data has not yet been confirmed by the weekly data; therefore, there is still some risk in this market.

Currently, we see that stocks are evenly split: half are above their 20-DMA, half are below, half are above their 50-DMA and half are below. This is an improvement from last week but leaves the overall outlook somewhat uncertain.

So if you are comfortable being on the leading edge and are looking to go long, be sure to check out our BUY signals based on daily data. We also see BUY signals outnumber SELL signals by a wide margin on our lists of Swing Trading Signals, Trend Busters and the Gap analysis list. Little by little, the number of stocks and ETFs has been increasing on our Trend Leaders list.

I've stated before that I am optimist. I am looking at this past week's action as confirmation that the primary trend remains UP. I think that, looking back, this past week will turn out to have been a good time to buy stocks. And very likely, next week will provide some opportunities, too.

Using our signals --

Visit Alert HQ to view or download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Gaps and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Friday, November 6, 2009

Nonfarm Payrolls Report surprisingly bad - or was it?


How awful was today's non-farm payrolls report?

Let's start with the bad news:
  • Nonfarm payrolls for October fell 190,000, which is worse than the decline of 175,000 that had been widely forecast. 
  • Job losses for the previous month were upwardly revised to reflect nonfarm job losses of 219,000. 
  • The unemployment rate surged to 10.2%, which is up from 9.8% and higher than the 9.9% that was widely forecast. It also marks the highest unemployment rate since 1982.
  • The manufacturing sector saw payrolls drop by 61,000. This is worse than the 45,000 jobs lost in the prior month.
But not everything was awful. There was some good news buried in there as well:
  • A drop of 190,000 is bad but it is still an improvement over the previous month's 219,000
  • Average weekly hourly hours were unchanged at 33.0, which is a bit below the 33.1 that had been forecast. At least there was no decrease.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month, which is stronger than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been expected.
  • Less jobs were cut in October than the previous month in the following sectors: builders, financial firms and service industries which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers
  • Temporary workers rose by 34,000, the first gain since December 2007. Temp workers are the first to be brought back after a downturn so we can hope this signals that we are nearing the beginnings of a recovery in the job market.
Today report confirms that it will be a tough slog before the job market fully returns to health.

Today's report also confirms that the "less bad" scenario continues to apply. But I'll take "less bad" over "worse" any day.



Thursday, November 5, 2009

Semiconductor turnaround - is the correction over already?

On Monday I asked if semiconductors were a bargain yet. I proposed that very soon they would be and then the sector would be a clear Buy.

Quite frankly, the sector didn't quite fall as far as I thought it would and now today, in the midst of a tech resurgence based on Cisco's better than expected results, semiconductors appear to running again.

The following chart exhibits several aspects of technical analysis that are worth reviewing:



Here we see the iShares Semiconductor ETF (IGW). There are five points to observe:
  1. IGW fell almost to a major support line as drawn by the horizontal magenta line.It has now bounced strongly up from that area.
  2. The blue line shows the trend line that was solidly broken but the ETF has closed decisively above it today.
  3. The horizontal red line is the first resistance line. IGW closed above this level today, also.
  4. Williams %R shows the ETF is just now moving out of an over-sold state. It should have room to run.
  5. The 200-day moving average never wavered. It is still moving solidly upward.
After a 15% drop from its peak, this ETF certainly endured more than a correction. Seeing the range of the Bollinger Bands and the slope of the 200-DMA, however, I'll go out on a limb and predict that IGW should be able to achieve a 12% to 20% gain before the next serious pullback.

So sometimes a sector never quite reaches bargain levels but when it's making a bullish move, perhaps that's not so important.

Disclosure: couldn't resist nibbling on the ProShares Ultra Semiconductor (USD) again today



Trust this rebound, it's real - Alert HQ signals for Nov 5, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 369 Swing Signals -- 367 BUY signals and 1 SELL Signal plus 1 Strong BUY.
  • 81 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 40 stocks that are new additions to the list and 21 that fell off the previous list.
  • 70 Trend Busters of which 59 are BUY signals and 11 are SELL signals.
  • 251 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 101 are bearish gaps and 150 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

On Tuesday I asked whether the pullback was running out of gas. By the time we got to Thursday, it appears that the answer was a definite "yes."

Between Cisco's earnings beat and positive guidance, the big increase in productivity and the lower than expected initial jobless claims, stocks had to continue the rebound that began to be apparent a couple of days ago.

Is the rebound real? Our signals sure say it is!

Once again, we have tons of BUYs on the Swing Signals list and one, lonely SELL signal. BUY signals outnumber SELL signals on both the Trend Busters and Gap Signals lists. There are more stocks coming back onto the Trend Leaders list than are falling off.

If the signals tell the story then the story is bullish. This is the dip that needs buying. Today's signals provide a variety of plays that will allow you to get into the game. So step right up!

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals or Gap Signals may provide some good trading ideas.




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Disclaimer: This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.




 
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