Today I ran a stock screen that looked at the ratio of "Enterprise Value" to "Earnings before Income Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization". This is known more simply as EV-to-EBITDA or the "enterprise multiple" and it is often used a measure of whether a stock is over-valued or not. The enterprise multiple looks at a firm as a potential acquirer would, because it takes debt into account - an item which other multiples like the P/E ratio do not include. The lower the enterprise multiple, the greater the potential that the company is under-valued.
For this screen I took the average value of EV-to-EBITDA across each industry and created the following chart. Within the 10 standard sectors we have a total of 201 industries represented.
One interesting thing that jumps out at me is how the General Bldg Contractors - Nonresidential Bldgs industry is at the bottom of the list where the deepest value industries are found. But at the top of the list, where the most over-valued industries are, we see Building Materials and Building Products. It seems odd that the these industries would be at the opposite end of the spectrum. And then there's Homebuilding. With it's position way at the over-valued end of the list, it seems like residential construction is garnering much more investor enthusiasm than it deserves while commercial real estate is perhaps getting much less than it deserves. Indeed, REITs are less over-valued that those companies in the Real Estate industry. In any case, there seem to be some imbalances in investor perception in these industries.
Another over-valued industry is Semiconductors. As this is one of my favorite areas for investment, this gives me pause. On the other hand, semis are generally perceived to be growth stocks so I would expect them to score poorly on a screen like this but not as poorly as they are doing here.
So if you are a value investor, this list could give you a good jumping off point for focusing on attractive industries and avoiding over-valued industries.
Note: If you are interested in which companies are in which industry, here is a link to the NASDAQ web site that will allow you to download lists of companies on the NYSE, the NASDAQ and the AMEX: http://www.nasdaq.com/screening/company-list.aspx. Included in the data is the sector and industry of which each company is a member. Download the CSV files and open them in an Excel spreadsheet and all the data will be right there.
For this screen I took the average value of EV-to-EBITDA across each industry and created the following chart. Within the 10 standard sectors we have a total of 201 industries represented.
Sector | Industry | Average EV-to-EBITDA |
---|---|---|
Capital Goods | Building Materials | 107.5 |
Capital Goods | Building Products | 95.7 |
Capital Goods | Homebuilding | 46.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Farming/Seeds/Milling | 39.9 |
Technology | Computer Communications Equipment | 37.7 |
Technology | Semiconductors | 36.5 |
Capital Goods | Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments | 34.6 |
Consumer Services | Consumer Specialties | 32.4 |
Health Care | Ophthalmic Goods | 31.3 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Environmental Services | 30.6 |
Finance | Real Estate | 29.3 |
Capital Goods | Electrical Products | 28.5 |
Health Care | Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) | 28.2 |
Consumer Services | Hotels/Resorts | 27.8 |
Consumer Services | Building operators | 27.5 |
Technology | Industrial Machinery/Components | 27.3 |
Technology | Computer Software: Prepackaged Software | 27.1 |
Energy | Industrial Machinery/Components | 27.0 |
Energy | Oilfield Services/Equipment | 25.0 |
Finance | Investment Managers | 24.8 |
Basic Industries | Forest Products | 23.6 |
Consumer Durables | Diversified Electronic Products | 23.1 |
Finance | Finance/Investors Services | 21.0 |
Consumer Services | Television Services | 21.0 |
Energy | Oil & Gas Production | 20.9 |
Consumer Services | Advertising | 20.8 |
Technology | Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment | 20.7 |
Health Care | Medical/Dental Instruments | 20.3 |
Basic Industries | Precious Metals | 20.1 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Motor Vehicles | 19.3 |
Basic Industries | Steel/Iron Ore | 18.5 |
Energy | Integrated oil Companies | 17.7 |
Capital Goods | Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks | 17.2 |
Technology | Professional Services | 17.1 |
Consumer Services | Real Estate Investment Trusts | 16.6 |
Technology | EDP Services | 16.5 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Consumer Specialties | 16.4 |
Health Care | Biotechnology: In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances | 16.3 |
Capital Goods | Ordnance And Accessories | 16.2 |
Transportation | Oil Refining/Marketing | 16.1 |
Miscellaneous | Business Services | 16.0 |
Capital Goods | Pollution Control Equipment | 15.8 |
Technology | Diversified Commercial Services | 15.8 |
Technology | Advertising | 15.6 |
Technology | Electronic Components | 15.4 |
Consumer Services | Catalog/Specialty Distribution | 15.4 |
Miscellaneous | Multi-Sector Companies | 15.3 |
Technology | Computer peripheral equipment | 15.1 |
Basic Industries | Major Chemicals | 15.0 |
Consumer Services | Real Estate | 14.9 |
Consumer Services | Movies/Entertainment | 14.8 |
Capital Goods | Railroads | 14.6 |
Consumer Durables | Home Furnishings | 14.5 |
Capital Goods | Metal Fabrications | 14.4 |
Technology | Computer Software: Programming, Data Processing | 14.4 |
Consumer Durables | Major Pharmaceuticals | 14.0 |
Finance | Diversified Commercial Services | 13.9 |
Capital Goods | Industrial Machinery/Components | 13.7 |
Energy | Consumer Electronics/Appliances | 13.7 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Recreational Products/Toys | 13.6 |
Health Care | Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus | 13.3 |
Public Utilities | Natural Gas Distribution | 13.2 |
Technology | Computer Manufacturing | 13.2 |
Basic Industries | Aluminum | 12.8 |
Consumer Services | Home Furnishings | 12.8 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Consumer Electronics/Appliances | 12.7 |
Basic Industries | Engineering & Construction | 12.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Packaged Foods | 12.5 |
Energy | Natural Gas Distribution | 12.3 |
Capital Goods | Auto Manufacturing | 12.2 |
Transportation | Railroads | 12.0 |
Consumer Services | Broadcasting | 11.8 |
Consumer Services | Diversified Commercial Services | 11.8 |
Consumer Services | Transportation Services | 11.8 |
Consumer Services | Consumer Electronics/Video Chains | 11.7 |
Technology | Retail: Computer Software & Peripheral Equipment | 11.7 |
Miscellaneous | Office Equipment/Supplies/Services | 11.7 |
Consumer Services | Other Consumer Services | 11.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Beverages (Production/Distribution) | 11.6 |
Consumer Durables | Publishing | 11.4 |
Consumer Durables | Industrial Specialties | 11.4 |
Capital Goods | Steel/Iron Ore | 11.4 |
Basic Industries | Metal Fabrications | 11.4 |
Consumer Services | Military/Government/Technical | 11.3 |
Consumer Durables | Telecommunications Equipment | 11.3 |
Finance | Finance: Consumer Services | 11.3 |
Consumer Durables | Specialty Chemicals | 11.3 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Meat/Poultry/Fish | 11.2 |
Consumer Services | Marine Transportation | 11.0 |
Energy | Metal Fabrications | 10.9 |
Basic Industries | Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) | 10.9 |
Consumer Durables | Metal Fabrications | 10.9 |
Consumer Durables | Consumer Electronics/Appliances | 10.9 |
Health Care | Industrial Specialties | 10.9 |
Health Care | Medical Specialities | 10.8 |
Miscellaneous | Other Consumer Services | 10.7 |
Consumer Services | RETAIL: Building Materials | 10.6 |
Consumer Services | Paper | 10.6 |
Miscellaneous | Industrial Machinery/Components | 10.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Homebuilding | 10.6 |
Basic Industries | Miscellaneous | 10.5 |
Public Utilities | Water Supply | 10.4 |
Capital Goods | Tools/Hardware | 10.4 |
Consumer Services | Rental/Leasing Companies | 10.4 |
Basic Industries | Agricultural Chemicals | 10.3 |
Capital Goods | Electronic Components | 10.3 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Telecommunications Equipment | 10.3 |
Consumer Durables | Miscellaneous manufacturing industries | 10.2 |
Health Care | Precision Instruments | 10.2 |
Consumer Durables | Industrial Machinery/Components | 10.1 |
Miscellaneous | Home Furnishings | 10.1 |
Consumer Services | Automotive Aftermarket | 10.1 |
Consumer Services | Professional Services | 10.1 |
Energy | Electric Utilities: Central | 10.0 |
Consumer Services | Recreational Products/Toys | 10.0 |
Capital Goods | Aerospace | 10.0 |
Health Care | Hospital/Nursing Management | 9.9 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Food Chains | 9.8 |
Consumer Services | Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation | 9.7 |
Health Care | Medical/Nursing Services | 9.7 |
Consumer Durables | Office Equipment/Supplies/Services | 9.7 |
Transportation | Air Freight/Delivery Services | 9.7 |
Transportation | Marine Transportation | 9.7 |
Capital Goods | Industrial Specialties | 9.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Electronic Components | 9.6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Specialty Foods | 9.6 |
Basic Industries | Specialty Chemicals | 9.6 |
Transportation | Aerospace | 9.6 |
Capital Goods | Auto Parts:O.E.M. | 9.5 |
Capital Goods | Medical Specialities | 9.5 |
Consumer Services | Telecommunications Equipment | 9.5 |
Capital Goods | Specialty Chemicals | 9.5 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Apparel | 9.5 |
Consumer Services | Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores | 9.5 |
Basic Industries | Homebuilding | 9.4 |
Basic Industries | Telecommunications Equipment | 9.4 |
Energy | Oil Refining/Marketing | 9.4 |
Capital Goods | Automotive Aftermarket | 9.4 |
Consumer Durables | Automotive Aftermarket | 9.3 |
Finance | Finance Companies | 9.2 |
Consumer Services | Motor Vehicles | 9.1 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Package Goods/Cosmetics | 9.1 |
Consumer Durables | Building Products | 9.1 |
Capital Goods | Fluid Controls | 9.1 |
Health Care | Biotechnology: Commercial Physical & Biological Resarch | 9.1 |
Basic Industries | Environmental Services | 9.0 |
Transportation | Trucking Freight/Courier Services | 8.9 |
Basic Industries | Package Goods/Cosmetics | 8.9 |
Consumer Services | Other Specialty Stores | 8.9 |
Miscellaneous | Publishing | 8.9 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Shoe Manufacturing | 8.9 |
Consumer Services | Newspapers/Magazines | 8.6 |
Capital Goods | Containers/Packaging | 8.6 |
Consumer Services | Publishing | 8.5 |
Public Utilities | Oil/Gas Transmission | 8.5 |
Health Care | Other Pharmaceuticals | 8.5 |
Public Utilities | Environmental Services | 8.4 |
Basic Industries | Electric Utilities: Central | 8.3 |
Consumer Durables | Containers/Packaging | 8.2 |
Finance | Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service | 8.2 |
Public Utilities | Oil & Gas Production | 8.2 |
Public Utilities | Power Generation | 8.2 |
Energy | Coal Mining | 8.1 |
Public Utilities | Electric Utilities: Central | 8.1 |
Health Care | Medical Electronics | 8.1 |
Technology | Electrical Products | 7.9 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Plastic Products | 7.8 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Textiles | 7.8 |
Finance | Business Services | 7.8 |
Basic Industries | Paints/Coatings | 7.7 |
Finance | Life Insurance | 7.6 |
Public Utilities | Telecommunications Equipment | 7.6 |
Consumer Services | Restaurants | 7.5 |
Transportation | Other Transportation | 7.5 |
Consumer Durables | Steel/Iron Ore | 7.5 |
Basic Industries | Paper | 7.5 |
Capital Goods | Engineering & Construction | 7.5 |
Capital Goods | Military/Government/Technical | 7.4 |
Basic Industries | Home Furnishings | 7.4 |
Consumer Services | Farming/Seeds/Milling | 7.2 |
Transportation | Transportation Services | 7.2 |
Finance | Specialty Insurers | 7.2 |
Consumer Durables | Consumer Specialties | 7.2 |
Consumer Services | Office Equipment/Supplies/Services | 7.0 |
Consumer Services | Department/Specialty Retail Stores | 6.9 |
Consumer Non-Durables | Food Distributors | 6.9 |
Consumer Services | Books | 6.8 |
Consumer Services | Food Chains | 6.4 |
Basic Industries | Military/Government/Technical | 6.4 |
Finance | Property-Casualty Insurers | 6.2 |
Basic Industries | Textiles | 6.0 |
Consumer Durables | Electrical Products | 5.9 |
Basic Industries | Containers/Packaging | 5.8 |
Finance | Accident &Health Insurance | 5.6 |
Capital Goods | Marine Transportation | 5.5 |
Technology | Telecommunications Equipment | 5.5 |
Consumer Durables | Paper | 5.3 |
Consumer Services | Consumer: Greeting Cards | 4.8 |
Consumer Services | Homebuilding | 4.1 |
Consumer Services | Electronics Distribution | 3.7 |
Basic Industries | General Bldg Contractors - Nonresidential Bldgs | 3.6 |
One interesting thing that jumps out at me is how the General Bldg Contractors - Nonresidential Bldgs industry is at the bottom of the list where the deepest value industries are found. But at the top of the list, where the most over-valued industries are, we see Building Materials and Building Products. It seems odd that the these industries would be at the opposite end of the spectrum. And then there's Homebuilding. With it's position way at the over-valued end of the list, it seems like residential construction is garnering much more investor enthusiasm than it deserves while commercial real estate is perhaps getting much less than it deserves. Indeed, REITs are less over-valued that those companies in the Real Estate industry. In any case, there seem to be some imbalances in investor perception in these industries.
Another over-valued industry is Semiconductors. As this is one of my favorite areas for investment, this gives me pause. On the other hand, semis are generally perceived to be growth stocks so I would expect them to score poorly on a screen like this but not as poorly as they are doing here.
So if you are a value investor, this list could give you a good jumping off point for focusing on attractive industries and avoiding over-valued industries.
Note: If you are interested in which companies are in which industry, here is a link to the NASDAQ web site that will allow you to download lists of companies on the NYSE, the NASDAQ and the AMEX: http://www.nasdaq.com/screening/company-list.aspx. Included in the data is the sector and industry of which each company is a member. Download the CSV files and open them in an Excel spreadsheet and all the data will be right there.
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