the Trade-Radar + TradingStockAlerts blog

When I write about stock market sectors or individual stocks, I generally give an overview of the fundamentals. On the other hand, all the BUY SELL signals we offer at Alert HQ are strictly based on technical analysis. Whereas the Alert HQ methodology primarily looks for technical indicators that are in agreement in order to generate its signals, there is an important school of thought that says that it is important to note when indicators are not in agreement. This is known as divergence. More precisely, divergence is when the price of an asset (a stock or ETF, for example) and an indicator, index or other related asset move in opposite directions. An investor looks for those instances where the trends begin to head in opposite directions. This is interpreted as a signal that a turn in the asset price is imminent. The difference between stock or index prices and MACD is one of the more common divergences that investors watch. Others involves prices and either stochastics, Money Flow ...

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 27 Swing Signals -- 16 BUY signals and 11 SELL Signals. 353 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 128 stocks that are new additions to the list and 113 that fell off the previous list. 15 Trend Busters of which 8 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals. 318 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. The view from Alert HQ -- Our signals at Alert HQ are beginning to indicate a slowing in the negative momentum and perhaps a preparation a resumption of the up-trend. Let's look at each signal in turn: I've noted before that we look to the Swing Signals to give us early warning on market turns. We've had SELL signals outnumbering BUY signals for a couple of weeks but today we see that situation reversed. T...

One of the hardest hit sectors in the downturn has been semiconductor equipment. With plunging demand for semis and rampant over-capacity, manufacturers of chip making equipment have been the zombies of the tech world. Are the dead beginning to come back to life? Today Applied Materials (AMAT) was upgraded by a Citi analyst based on strength in orders for equipment used to make photovoltaic cells. Analyst Timothy Arcuri believes that Applied Materials is about to sign a "significant" second wave of orders for its SunFab solar production equipment, including four new lines of about 300 megawatts in India. Winning solar contracts in areas beyond China and Taiwan is indeed a positive development. Last week KLA-Tencor (KLAC) was upgraded by an Oppenheimer analyst who said that said there are "early indications the cyclical recovery ... is blossoming into a real upturn." A quick look at the fundamentals -- We'll start by looking at a chart of the financials for AM...

Many traders treat gaps as serious indicators. At Alert HQ we are now bringing gaps into our technical analysis. Here's how. In an effort to further reduce false signals in our Swing Trading Signals, we now take gaps into account. We avoid declaring a BUY signal if the stock has had a gap down within the last two weeks unless the gap has been closed. For SELL signals, the processing is the converse. New Feature at Alert HQ: Gap Analysis Signals -- The big news, however, is that we have developed a new screen that is focused on gaps. As we scan 7000 or so stocks three times a week, we now log all the gaps we detect and create the following four signals: Bullish - Gap Up: a gap of more than 3% to the upside Bearish - Gap Down: a gap of more than 3% to the downside Bullish - Closed Gap: after a gap to the downside, the stock subsequently moved up so that the most recent closing price is above the original gap level Bearish - Closed Gap: after a gap to the upside, the stock subsequentl...

This post is to announce that the weekend's stock signals are available from Alert HQ. Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - just like it says, a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Trading Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. The view from Alert HQ -- This week the most speculative seg...

The Durable Goods report for August came out Friday and landed with a thud. The headline number for new orders fell a surprising 2.4% month-over-month after a better than expected July. How did things go in the tech sector? Shipments -- We'll start off looking backwards at Shipments in the month of August. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment. It's clear that tech hit a speed bump in August as shipments fell 2.6%. It is apparent, though, that shipments data shows considerable variation month to month so August's decline, though worse than expected, is still somewhat within the norm and doesn't yet signal the approach of new lows. This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category. Now here we have trouble. Shipments fell ...

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 96 Swing Signals -- 16 BUY signals and 80 SELL Signals. 583 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 83 stocks that are new additions to the list and 545 that fell off the previous list. 24 Trend Busters of which 12 are BUY signals and 12 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Last Thursday I said "OK, now I'm really worried." Our signals suggesting we were at or very close to a top. The last two days seem to confirm that. Our Swing Signals had been skewing negative with SELL signals are outnumbering BUY signals. Today's results are similar but almost all the BUY signals are for inverse leveraged ETFs. There are a ton of SELL signals and they are spread across all kinds of sectors Our list of Trend Leaders has been hanging at a level that was ...

Back in June of 2008 I wrote a post that featured the opinions of well-known Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich. At the time he was declaring that it was time to buy banks. He was 9 months early in that call. What does he have to say these days? It seems that Mr. Levkovich is reasonably positive on the state of the U.S. economy. He is projecting GDP growth a hair over 1% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009 and 2.1% in 2010. As indicators that modest growth is in store, he points to the following developments: Companies have cut back production and orders to an excessive extent. Though demand remains weak, companies are now finding it necessary to increase production. There has been improvement in the credit markets Yields of junk bonds have dropped by 10% Banks received government guarantees for their loans and have stabilized. The need to cut inventories is waning and demand remains stable Levkovich's main point, however, revolves around the supply - demand equation. Among...

In looking over tonight's Swing Trading Signals , one sector seemed to be standing out. There were a bunch of BUY signals for regional banks. Out of 13 BUY signals, there were 6 that were regional banks: City Bank (CTB) The Elmira Savings Bank, FSB (ESBK) First United Corporation (FUNC) MERCANTILE BANCORP, INC. (MBR) Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) United Western Bancorp, Inc. (UWBK) In addition, there was a large money center bank on the list: MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (MTU). After three down days, financials certainly spiked upward today. Interestingly, the Financial Select Sector SPDR jumped 2.27% while the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) only moved up 1.33%. Some of the banks on our list did much better than KRE and some only matched it. In looking at the charts of these stocks, I have to say that some of them look pretty dismal. For the most part, I believe we are seeing short term signals here as the longer-term trends are not yet looking like they are quite ready ...

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 35 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 21 SELL Signals plus 1 Strong BUY. 1045 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 122 stocks that are new additions to the list and 229 that fell off the previous list. 17 Trend Busters of which 14 are BUY signals and 3 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Momentum seemed to be slowing over the last few days but stocks moved higher yet again today. With the dollar weakening, commodities rose as did gold miners and many country ETFs that are tied to the commodities story. Tech lagged a bit while financials, energy and materials led the charge. Despite some nervousness over tomorrow's statement from the FOMC, investors worked to get the rally back on track. At Alert HQ, we look to the Swing Signals to give us early warni...

If you've ever distrusted the earnings estimates of stock market analysts, it looks like you've had good reason to be skeptical. The following chart shows an interesting pattern. At the top left, we see global stock prices plunging roughly three months before earnings estimates began to come down. Doesn't inspire confidence in analyst opinions, does it? Now take a closer look at the lower right hand corner of chart. Here we see prices and estimates playing out the same way, only in reverse. In other words, prices are heading up and analysts are only now, three months after the trough in prices, beginning to raise earnings estimates. How to play it -- Citigroup has looked at global estimates divided them into two buckets: developed world and emerging world. You can see the results in this next chart: It is clear that analyst expectations for emerging market stocks are much rosier than their expectations for stocks in developed economies. Conclusion -- Stock prices are leadin...

I'll be out of town this weekend so there will probably be no posting to the blog. Despite my absence, I still intend to have Alert HQ updated with the latest BUY and SELL signals. My intern (my 15-year old son) will be handling the update duties. Be sure to check it out sometime Saturday afternoon. Have a good weekend, everyone. See you soon!

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 40 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 25 SELL Signals. 1103 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 308 stocks that are new additions to the list and 53 that fell off the previous list. 36 Trend Busters of which 34 are BUY signals and 2 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- OK, now I'm really worried. On Tuesday the list of Trend Leaders had grown to a level that was pretty close to a historical high. Today it has hit what is pretty much the maximum level we have seen at short-term or intermediate market peaks. Our Swing Signals are now skewing negative. SELL signals are outnumbering BUY signals. This has often been a leading indicator of short-term weakness. Still keeping the faith is our Trend Busters list. We continue to see a preponderance of BUY sig...

Oracle released earnings after the close today. The stock immediately fell several percent after hours. Was the sell-off justified? The company indicated that profit rose 4% which was in line with analyst estimates. The top line, however, was a source of concern for investors. The following chart shows Oracle's three primary revenue sources. (Data courtesy of Gridstone Research and Seeking Alpha) As usual, the Updates and Support category showed sequential growth albeit very modest growth. This number includes the software maintenance revenue that tends to provide a solid underpinning to many enterprise software companies. The bad news kicks in when we look at the other two revenue sources. Services has been a huge money maker for companies like IBM and HP. Investors were not pleased to see that Oracle's Services revenue declined to levels not seen since 2007. Worst of all, revenue from New Software Licenses fell to $1 billion, below analyst expectations and down to levels last...

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 39 Swing Signals -- 31 BUY signals and 7 SELL Signals plus 1 Strong BUY. 848 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 244 stocks that are new additions to the list and a mere 31 that fell off the previous list. 60 Trend Busters of which 56 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- The list of Trend Leaders has now grown to a level that is pretty close to a historical high. Our Swing Signals and Trend Busters are overwhelmingly full of BUY signals. Things seem like they just can't get any better. That's why I am increasingly cautious. In the meantime, the market seems to keep clawing and scrabbling its way to gains every afternoon. We've got a good batch of signals tonight so let's enjoy this rally while we can. Using our signal...

We offer free Swing Trading BUY and SELL signals . This post looks into performance over time of the BUY signals. Quick background. The TradeRadar Swing Trading Signals are primarily based on Bollinger Bands. For the BUY signal, we look for the closing price to dip below the lower band and then pop back up above the lower band. We apply a proprietary set of criteria to ensure that the "pop" was strong enough to suggest a viable BUY. We also use Williams %R to check whether the price is in the process of recovering from an over-sold condition. The analysis -- I took the signals that were generated over the weekend on Saturday mornings as well as all the signals that were generated on Tuesdays and Thursdays. I looked at each set of signals separately and charted the results. I looked at how many BUY signals were profitable after 1 week had elapsed, after 2 weeks had elapsed, after 3 weeks, etc. I used a weekly increment because we only run our tracking program on the weekend. T...

Running late tonight but I wanted to publish the two weekly Alert HQ charts, especially since I skipped last week. By way of background, this past week had no news events of special importance but stocks returned to their winning ways. Looks like we are only allowed one bad week in a row before the bulls return. The question is, will the bulls hang around this week? The Nikkei is down hard as I write this. China was up but is now falling, as well. Will U.S. stocks catch the same cold that Asian stocks seem to be suffering from? We look for clues in some of the charts that follow. The view from Alert HQ -- Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below: The above chart, illustrating our moving average analysis, is at a bullish level now but I think time is running out. There are no obvious bearish signs here, just a situation where it looks like stocks have been running for long enough so that the time is right for a breather. This is just a rough estimate tha...

Saturday's Wall Street Journal has an article titled "Investors Pull $2.1 Billion out of Leveraged ETFs." What's going on? The article says assets in ETFs increased by $20.1 billion in August but declined in only two asset classes: leveraged and inverse ETFs. The article goes on to discuss how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority have issued warnings that leveraged ETFs may not be suitable for all investors. These warnings have been especially targeted at retail investors. The SEC and FINRA, however, aren't the only ones pointing fingers at leveraged ETFs. Let's see how many ambulance chasers have initiated class action lawsuits against the ProShares company: Gilman and Pastor LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit Against ProShares' UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares Fund on Behalf of UltraShort Fund Investors Labaton Sucharow LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit Against ProShares' UltraShort Real Estate Pro...

This post is to announce that the weekend's stock signals are available from Alert HQ. Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - just like it says, a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Trading Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. The view from Alert HQ -- This week was the opposite of the ...

Chinese stocks engaged in a furious run-up earlier this year but recently plunged more than 20%, prompting some observers to note that China is now in a bear market. We are seeing signs of a resurgence. In Thursday night's TrendBusters list , we saw 9 Chinese stocks and ETFs generate BUY signals. This means that they moved up above a previously downward sloping trend line and are now showing signs of an upside breakout. Here's the list: Symbol Name CEA CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG INDEX FXI ISHARES FTSE/XINHUA CHINA GCH GREATER CHINA FUND GXC SPDR S&P CHINA ETF HAO CLAYMORE EXCHANGE- TRADED FUND/ALPHASHARES CHINA SMALL CAP ETF PGJ POWERSHARES GOLDEN DRAGON HALTER USX CHINA PORTFOLIO XPP PROSHARES ULTRA FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 ZNH CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED Is it justified? Some numbers were just released. Last month, output at China's factories gained 12.3% from a year earlier. Ret...

Here are the results for Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters. All are now available at Alert HQ and are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 54 Swing Signals -- 42 BUY signals, 9 SELL Signals and 3 Strong BUYs. Our most bullish situation ever! 485 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 359 stocks that are new additions to the list and 20 that fell off the previous list. 50 Trend Busters of which 42 are BUY signals and 8 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Light volume but stocks are up five days in a row. Say what you will, gains are gains no matter the volume. Thursday means initial jobless claims and today's results were slightly better than expected. More notable was an upgrade of Yahoo! that helped tech stocks advance. A treasury auction went off well today. Geithner gave comforting testimony on Capital Hill. Semiconductors showed a muted reaction to last night's improved guidance f...

I love this chart! Just take a look at this. What a well-defined downward trend we've had for over a month now. And look how clear the upside breakout appears to be. The stock in question here is Local.com (LOCM) and it showed up tonight on our Trend Busters list. The stock opened on Tuesday very strong but was unable to hold onto all its gains; nevertheless, it ended up with a nearly 2% gain on the day. Also notable is the rising 50-day moving average. The stock just touched the 50-DMA and strongly bounced up. This is another positive sign. Background -- The company's claim to fame is embodied in its name. Local.com specializes in local search and provides detailed relevant search results for local business, products and services, and sponsored listings. There are some observers of the Internet who feel that this kind of localization of search and advertising is the next big frontier and that Local.com is a pioneer. Being on the cutting edge, however, often means that profits...

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 158 Swing Signals -- 142 BUY signals and 10 SELL Signals plus 6 Strong BUYs. 146 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 64 stocks that are new additions to the list and a mere 10 that fell off the previous list. 21 Trend Busters of which 15 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Stocks registered losses last week but a strong finish caused our Swing Trading Signals to really perk up. So, though this market seems to have no particular reason to keep climbing, I wasn't surprised to see stocks gain again today. Tuesday's signals continue the theme. Plenty of BUYs again on a long list of Swing Signals with very few SELL signals. The Trend Busters list has a similar look. The additions to the Trend Leaders list greatly exceed the numbe...

This blog generally focuses on analysis of tech stocks, ProShares ETFs and economic reports. So why am I talking about gold today? This weekend's Alert HQ process generated the usual list of Bollinger Band Breakouts . These are stocks and ETFs that have exceeded exceeded either their upper Bollinger Band or their lower Bollinger Band. What is so unusual this time is the large number of companies related to gold or silver mining that showed up on the list as Bullish Breakouts. In other words, all of these guys have popped up above that upper Bollinger Band. The following list shows all those gold or silver-related stocks, 27 in all, as extracted from the total list of 103 breakouts: Symbol Name ABX BARRICK GOLD CORP. AEM AGNICO-EAGLE MINES LTD. AGQ PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER ANV ALLIED NEVADA GOLD CORP. AXU ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP. BVN COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAV. EXK ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP. GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF GRS GAMMON GOLD ...

It's gratifying to see that the new version of TradeRadar is getting downloaded at a good rate. This post will provide a couple of tips for new users and those who have upgraded from a previous version. The AUTO checkbox -- I have previously written about the AUTO checkbox and how it seeks out the ideal setup for the signal you are looking for. In other words, if you select a BUY signal, click the AUTO checkbox and hit the Update Chart button, the software will automatically adjust the Start Date and the Signal Filter setting. The chart will be displayed with the slope lines, the trend line, the moving averages and the Fibonacci retracement lines in the top half and the TradeRadar signal indicator in the lower half. So far, so good. If you want to do further adjustments of the chart, changing Start Date, for example, you need to uncheck that AUTO checkbox . Otherwise, your new settings will be over-ridden by the automatic setup process. Missing Info Message Box -- If you updated fr...

This post is to announce that the weekend's stock signals are available from Alert HQ. Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. The view from Alert HQ -- This week started out in a pretty dismal fashion with the mar...