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Thursday, April 30, 2009

Do multiple ETFs over their 200-DMA signify something more than a bear market rally?

Question of the day: Is it really just a bear market rally when we are starting to see so many ETFs moving above their 200-day moving average?

Many analysts consider a stock moving above its 200-DMA to be a buy signal. Furthermore, it is also said that a bull market can be defined as one where major market averages are trending up above their 200-DMA.

Through most of this bear market, we haven't seen many stocks or ETFs anywhere close to their 200-DMA. Now, that seems to be changing.

In my highly unscientific sample, I'm seeing a number of sector ETFs as well as the NASDAQ 100 have moved above their 200-DMA recently. Included among the ETFs I am tracking are the following:
  • Technology iShares (IYW)
  • Network iShares (IGN)
  • Semiconductor iShares (IGW)
  • Consumer Discretionary iShares (IYC)
Comparable ETFs from the SPDR family of funds are essentially doing equally well.

In addition, the NASDAQ Composite is a hair away from crossing over its 200-DMA and the Telecom iShares (IYZ), though it didn't quite hold on after crossing above its 200-DMA today, seems ready to make the move soon. Materials (IYM) and Industrials ETFs (IYJ) are also only a few points away their 200-DMA.

Looking farther afield, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China ETF (FXI) crossed above and now seems to be consolidating at a level above its 200-DMA.

Other major market averages such as the Russell 2000 are only a few points away from their 200-DMA. Will they be rejected or will they power through and confirm something stronger than a bear market rally is underway?

I'm not much at making those kinds of predictions but I am becoming more encouraged with the fact that we now have some leadership that might be able to pull this market upward.

Disclosure: small position in IGN

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