Skip to main content

Weekly Market Update - data just OK, markets rally anyway

Market Comments

Markets staged a strong rally on Thursday that accounted for most of the gains seen this week. Interestingly, part of the impetus for the rally was an employment report from ADP that most analysts felt was largely overstated. The other incentive for investors was the announcement of the rescue plan for sub-prime homeowners by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson. I am not sure why this was such a strong catalyst for a rally when nothing that wasn't already known was presented. Markets took off anyway and we now have two weeks in a row where the major averages achieved gains.

In other news that had an unexpected effect, OPEC held production steady and the US government reported a large draw-down in crude stocks. Instead of rallying, oil actually fell and finished the week down slightly.

The anxiously awaited Labor Dept. payrolls number was announced Friday. Expected to be market-moving news, especially in light of the ADP number, the actual numbers indicated continued slight growth in the economy. Friday the markets went nowhere and attention is now on the FOMC meeting next week. With payrolls showing no threat of a recession, does the Fed cut 25 or 50 bps? or not at all?

TradeRadar Portfolio Update

It has actually been two weeks now since I last wrote about the TradeRadar model portfolio. It has, once again, been a volatile two weeks and stops have been hit.

First, let's look at what was sold during this time.

ProShares Ultra Short Real Estate ETF (SRS)

We have held this ETF for quite a while now, having opened the position back in May. We didn't start using a stop until recently so we have weathered quite a few ups and downs. Recently, we had our stop set at $95 but when the ETF started getting up around $120 I moved the stop up to $105. On November 30, markets rallied strongly and SRS opened with a good sized gap down and the stop was hit immediately on the open. SRS was sold for $100.50 for a 16.5% gain.

ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID)

Previously we cut this position in half but recently we added a few more shares at $38.58 as the NASDAQ was heading down. I set a stop of $38.50 that would at least protect the capital of the new shares. The original shares were purchased at $48.39. During the last two weeks the ETF moved into the mid-$40's. Then the NASDAQ rallied on November 28 and QID opened with a gap down. The entire position was sold at $38.48. The loss on this last batch of shares was 11.5%

ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF (SKF)

It was only on November 7 when we opened a position in SKF. This ETF followed its usual volatile path and managed to sneak above $110. I had set a stop at $100 and on November 28, when the market opened big, SKF opened with gap down and was sold immediately at $99.79 for a 6.8% gain.

Here is what we are still holding (and a motley crew it is):

PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO)

This is turning into a shaky trade. Closing Friday at $33.05, we are down over a dollar. We have a stop at $31.50 so we have some room to see how much oil prices will gyrate before, hopefully, heading higher. Currently we are down over 3%

Generex Biotechnology Corp. (GNBT)

I recently wrote a post saying GNBT was about to "swoon" after releasing earnings. So far, it is hanging onto most of its recent gains, closing the week at $1.78. I can't complain about being wrong so far as we are actually showing over 5% profit here. Earnings were announced after the close on Friday, however, and it wasn't pretty. Revenues are way down year-over-year and the company shows an EPS loss of $0.07 versus $0.03. I suspect we will see the swoon on Monday.

SanDisk (SNDK)

SanDisk seems to bouncing off an over-sold low and had an extremely good day on Thursday on rumors Apple will be offering a MacBook using NAND instead of a hard drive. Friday, SanDisk lost some of the gains but it remains a bit above our purchase price, closing the week at $38.65. Dare I say it: there may be an inverted head-and-shoulders forming on the daily chart. This would be bullish indeed.

ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXP)

I initially advised taking a tight stop when initiating a position in this stock; hover, when the stock routinely swings 10-points per day, it is hard to establish where the stop level should be. As a result, I have taken only a small position and have let this one float while keeping a close eye on it. We have taken a pounding. As of Friday's closing, we are down significantly, almost $20 for a total loss of 22%. Nevertheless, the TradeRadar signals are bearish on the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index itself on both the weekly and daily charts so we will hang on to this UltraShort ETF a while longer.

Comments

ShareTipsInfo.com said…
Hi Everyone.

Your blog is nice and informative. We think your visitors will like this posting.

We all know that Indian stock market has become volatile now a days. One day its going up and another day its coming down. So we all should like to know
what is the reason for it.

Well We say its the game of FII how they direct the market. They have huge money with them they can direct any share as per there needs and requirement.
Now its a alarming time.

We suggest you to be very much beware now as year closing of FII is on the cards. There year closing is based on year to year basis. Not like ours i.e. March.

So many will try to invest more money and rest will try to take there profit back home. In this scenario its best to follow market trend and work with small
quantity. Just wait and watch.


Warm Regards

SHARETIPSINFO Team

09899056796
09891655316
09891890425

Popular posts from this blog

Running TradeRadar on Windows 7 and Windows 8

Development of the original TradeRadar Stock Inspector software was begun back in the days before Windows 7 and Windows 8 were available.

As these newer versions of Windows have become more popular, we have heard from some users that they are having problems installing and running TradeRadar on their newer PCs.

The good news is that TradeRadar will work just fine on Windows 7 and Windows 8. All you have to do is adjust the Windows Compatibility Settings to ensure TradeRadar runs as intended.

It is recommended that you can apply Compatibility Settings when running the initial installation; however, it is also possible to apply Compatibility Settings after the program has been installed.

Prior to installation
After downloading the install program, go to the folder where you have stored the TradeRadarStkInsp_7_Setup.exe or TradeRadarStkInsp_7_PRO_Setup.exe executable. Right-click on the executable file and select Properties. Click the Compatibility tab. Adjust the Compatibility mode to …

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:


Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:


Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.

N…

Alert HQ has moved!

End of an era!

This site was started way back in 2006/2007 to showcase my blog posts and the Alert HQ buy signals and sell signals. Alert HQ grew to include other kinds of stock alerts including Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders, Cash Flow Kings and more.

In the meantime, I built a sister site, TradingStockAlerts.com and I started using some of the same Alert HQ content over there. As a result, I am discontinuing the Alert HQ data here at Trade-Radar.com

The good news, however, is that all the Alert HQ signals and stock screens are still completely free. In addition, the pages have been enhanced so that you can hover over a stock symbol and a small chart will pop up so you can get a quick look at the stock's recent price action. If you click on a symbol it will take you to a page with plenty of financial and technical analysis information (still free!) as well as a larger chart that you can play with in terms of adding or deleting indicators, moving averages, etc.

Click …