the Trade-Radar + TradingStockAlerts blog

Many observers have noted that semiconductors led the recent rally but have lately been underperforming. Are semis in a downtrend or are they on the mend? Tracking an ETF -- Here is a screenshot I grabbed from the TradeRadar software. It shows the SELL signal analysis for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (IGW). Note that the SELL signal (in the bottom chart) has not been consummated. In the top chart, the price is well above the trend line and is now solidly above the 20-day moving average. If this ETF can't dip significantly below even the 20-DMA, it is hard to say that semiconductors are in too much trouble. Tracking a couple of bellwethers -- It is a common technique to look at the performance of a couple of bellwether stocks in order to judge the state of an industry sector. A week ago, Intel (INTC) announced that their outlook for the second half of 2009 was measurably better than what had been communicated in earlier forecasts. That good news was enough to incite a rally in tech...

OK, markets hit a rough patch over the last few days but managed to put together a bit of a bounce today. Yes, we had the obligatory "stick save" at the end of the session. The result, though, is that a whole bunch of stocks are now perfectly matching the criteria we need to generate bullish Swing Trading Signals. Here are the results for Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters. All are now available at Alert HQ and are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 129 Swing Signals -- 110 BUY signals, 4 SELL Signals and 15 Strong BUYs. Our most bullish situation ever! 79 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have a paltry 14 stocks that are new additions to the list and 114 that fell off the previous list. 19 Trend Busters of which 9 are BUY signals and 10 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Thursday's signals always coincide with the release of initial jobless claims. Today's results didn...

Earnings or dividends: which is more important? Which provides more of a clue to the outlook for this market? Earlier this week I released the first part of this series entitled " Q2 Growth Report - Part 1 ". In that post I presented some of the data compiled by our Alert HQ processes. The focus was on Revenue and EPS. I contrasted 2009 Q1 results with our recent Q2 results. In this post, I'll do the same with dividends. For today's purposes, I'll highlight the companies that managed to increase dividends this quarter. The following table provides the comparison between the two quarters: Q1-2009 Q2-2009 In S&P 500 140 112 All stocks 829 778 The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that increased their dividend and have made it onto Part 2 the Q2 Growth Report has decreased by 28. At first glance that doesn’t seem too bad but actually that corresponds to a 20% decline. Similarly, looking at the entire stock market, the number of stocks that raised dividends in ...

Stocks sure got flushed down the toilet today. Needless to say, the scene at Alert HQ was somber and today's picks lean strongly to the sell side. In any case, we need to soldier on. This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 54 Swing Signals -- 12 BUY signals and 42 SELL Signals. 179 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have only 31 stocks that are new additions to the list and 343 that fell off the previous list. 16 Trend Busters of which 3 are BUY signals and 13 are SELL signals. The view from Alert HQ -- Two days of trading this week, both down and today worse than yesterday. Over the weekend, we proposed that a pullback was due within the next two weeks. It seems we got it within the next two days. We also proposed that the drop in stock prices would amount to 5% to 10%. Well, we're half way to th...

Today's Wall Street Journal had an article that asked the question "Can Rally Run without Revenue?" Is the revenue situation really that bad? Let's take a quick look at some the data compiled through the Alert HQ process. After each quarter's earnings season, I try to pull together what I am now calling the Growth Report. Part 1 compiles the list of stocks that have shown a year-over-year increase in both revenue and earnings AND a sequential quarter-over-quarter increase in both revenue and earnings. Given the severity of the economic downturn, very few companies have been able to to pull off this trick. The following table presents a comparison of the last two quarters: Q1-2009 Q2-2009 In S&P 500 27 41 All stocks 218 312 The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that qualify as growth leaders and have made it onto the Q2 Growth Report has grown by 50%. Similarly, looking at the entire stock market, the number of growth leaders has almost doubled in Q2 as comp...

It's been a month since I last posted charts of the statistics we track at Alert HQ. Are there any new insights we can gather from a review of these charts? In the last month, the major averages have doggedly managed to climb a few percent, while all the while bears have been saying stocks are over-priced and heading for a fall. Fundamentally, economic reports have been rather benign though stubbornly high levels of unemployment remain a worrisome factor. Earnings season continued through the month and is pretty much over now. Many stocks beat lowered expectations and a good number also provided decent forward guidance. So why shouldn't stocks continue to rise? The two main weapons in the bears arsenal are: Stocks have outrun their fundamentals. Both trailing and forward PEs are way too high compared to historical norms Stocks are over-bought. The rally from the March lows has been virtually uninterrupted. A pullback is due. My answer to the bears would be: "Yeah, maybe....

Does this rally have any gas left? Don't know what CMF means? Hopefully, we can shed some light on both topics. After a week of consolidation, where every day stocks struggled to close with a gain, I thought it might be a good idea to look at one of the indicators that takes into account the closing price relative to the high and low. That indicator is Chaikin Money Flow. Developed by Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Money Flow oscillator is calculated from the daily readings of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind the Accumulation Distribution Line is that the degree of buying or selling pressure can be determined by the location of the Close relative to the High and Low for the corresponding period (Closing Location Value). There is buying pressure when a stock closes in the upper half of a period's range and there is selling pressure when a stock closes in the lower half of the period's trading range. In this chart of the S&P 500, we can see the tai...