the Trade-Radar + TradingStockAlerts blog

The level of noise around leveraged ETFs has been rising lately. What's going on? Lately, there has been a lot of discussion related to leveraged ETFs and how some brokerages are no longer allowing clients to trade them. And, of course, there are a number of posts pointing out why these vehicles should be avoided (be sure to read the comments as there are plenty of investors who are not opposed to these ETFs at all). In the interest of being even-handed, we have also included a few posts that suggest why investors might want to use these ETFs. It has been nearly five months since the last time we presented a links post focused on ProShares ETFs but today we have an interesting and well-edited selection of articles. I highly recommend the post at TheStreet.com for a well-reasoned warning and a different take on the leveraged ETF dilemma. ETFGuide.com does a good job taking the other side of the argument. So check out the following link list and don't hesitate to click through to...

The NASDAQ gapped up today but couldn't hold its intra-day highs. No gap on the S&P 500 but otherwise a similar performance. Stocks ran up early, gave ground late in the day but still finished with decent gains. This seemed about right as the morning rally seemed to me to be a bit overdone. Catalysts today included a Goldman Sachs upgrade for GE, a beat by Motorola and a decrease in the unemployment rate. Weekly initial claims climbed for the second week in a row but still managed to stay below 600,000. Decent news but not worth a 2% rally as we saw in the morning. Stocks still managed to finish up around 1% which is nothing to complain about. The view from Alert HQ -- Our list of Trend Leaders has finally gotten above 1000. This is a good indication of the bullish sentiment that is prevelent but it gets us closer to the kind of extreme levels that presage a pullback. As we saw on Tuesday, we have more SELL signals than BUY signals on our list of Swing Trading Signals. This kin...

The Durable Goods report for June was released today. What did it say about the tech sector? The last couple of months have shown that the decline in tech was moderating and indeed some improvement was in evidence. Did that trend continue? Shipments -- Many analysts say that new orders are great but shipments are what really count. The following chart shows shipments for the tech sector in general as represented by the Computers and electronic products category. The results here are alarming. Shipments have reached a three year low. The recent upswing has been undone. The next chart shows shipments in the semiconductor sector. There was a big surge in April and now two consecutive months when shipments have decreased. The only consolation is that at least we didn't hit a new low. At last, some good news. Here in the Computers and related products category, shipments actually increased last month. The chart below shows what looks like a serious bottom being made and we are grateful ...

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 26 Swing Signals -- 11 BUY signals and 15 SELL Signals. 997 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 286 stocks that are new additions to the list and 165 that fell off the previous list. 22 Trend Busters of which 16 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals. Stocks muddle through and end the day mixed -- The wild advance in the stocks market has finally slowed down. The last few trading days have been noncommittal. Today was more of the same as stocks sank, attempted to rally in the last couple of hours and ended mixed. Only the NASDAQ managed to end up in the green. It is clear investors are pausing to digest the recent gains. The results are clear to see at Alert HQ. The number of stocks on our list of Trend Leaders has expanded to nearly 1000 but the increa...

Running late tonight. I'm all covered in polyurethane and joint compound from the multiple projects I'm working on around the house. Painful as it may be, progress is being made. And so it was in the markets this week, also. Progress was made again despite a disappointment or two from a few tech stocks. Major averages were able to add another 4% or so to the previous week's 7% gains. Stocks now appear to be well overbought and ripe for a pullback. I've read recently, however, that there is still quite a bit of skepticism out there. A contrarian might think that suggests this rally might have a bit of gas left in the tank. And earnings season may still have a few positive surprises waiting for us. So where are the markets today and where might they be going? We look for clues in some of the charts that follow. The view from Alert HQ -- Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below: The above chart, illustrating our moving average analysis, is ...

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. The view from Alert HQ -- After a 7% gain in the previous week, markets, rather than take a rest, pushed on and racked up another 4% gain with small caps doing even better. There...

Microsoft (MSFT) reported a decline in revenue in the most recent quarter. Is that a bad omen for the whole tech sector? First, a quick look at the numbers. For the fourth quarter, Microsoft reported net income of $3.05 billion, or 34 cents a share, on revenue of $13.10 billion, down 17 percent from a year ago. Expectations were for earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of $14.37 billion. Here are a few quick thoughts on three of Microsoft's business segments. Microsoft Office software product line -- As good as Microsoft's suite of Office productivity software is, there is no compelling reason for current users to upgrade if they haven't done so already. The next iteration is not due until next year. Given the cost of Office and the fact that even old versions are packed with plenty of features that most people never even use, it is no surprise to see sales stagnating. There are also much less expensive alternatives to the pricey Microsoft products. Both Google and Zoho ...

With the stock market seemingly melting up, I wanted to know which ProShares ETFs were generating the best technical signals. The list below shows those ProShares ETFs that are exhibiting strong upward trends according to DMI and Aroon analysis and also have their 20-day moving average above their 50-day moving average. Symbol Name Category DDM Ultra Dow30 Ultra Market Cap QLD Ultra QQQ Ultra Market Cap ROM Ultra Technology Ultra Sector UGE Ultra Consumer Goods Ultra Sector ULE Ultra Euro Ultra Currency UPW Ultra Utilities Ultra Sector USD Ultra Semiconductors Ultra Sector All of these are Ultra ETFs. In other words, they deliver 200% of the performance of their underlying index on a daily basis. For those of you who are looking for a little extra juice in your portfolio, these 2X ETFs are a good source. Unfortunately, after the big run-ups they have seen in the last two weeks, it is hard to recommend them as a BUY today. On the other hand, these ETFs represent sectors or styles on whi...

A twelve day winning streak? This is no baseball team, this is the NASDAQ I'm talking about. Stocks looked like they might finally take a rest when it was reported that existing home sales came in better than expected. With that news, major averages took off and closed with gains of roughly 2.5%. The view from Alert HQ -- Our list of Trend Leaders has dwindled a bit since Tuesday but on the whole we still have a good number of stocks and ETFs on the list. And why not, with stocks spiking as they have been for the last two weeks? This list still maintains a bullish tone. The number of Swing Trading Signals today has increased and we continue to see that the majority are BUY signals. In a good indication of the breadth of this rally, today's BUY signals are widely dispersed across many different industry sectors. After two weeks of rapidly rising prices, it is a little surprising to see an increase in the Trend Busters list. By now I would have thought that every stock that was g...

There are a number of measures that are especially pertinent to tech stocks. Do you know what they are and how to interpret them? Earnings season is in full swing. This post will attempt to provide a few guidelines for drawing your own conclusions when reading tech stock results. This is not to say that standard measures of revenue and income are not important; they are. The point of this post is that there are areas to examine that will allow you obtain a deeper understanding of a tech company's results. And hopefully, will allow you to do a better job trading tech stocks. The seven factors to consider -- Year-over-year comparisons versus sequential quarterly results: It is important to always examine y-o-y revenue and earnings. It may not be obvious that tech sales have a seasonal component but they do. Enterprise software companies, for example, are affected by the budgeting cycles of large corporations which are generally on an annual calendar-based cycle with projects often r...

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 21 Swing Signals -- 18 BUY signals and 3 SELL Signals. 414 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 215 stocks that are new additions to the list and 35 that fell off the previous list. 35 Trend Busters of which 29 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals. Stocks continue their winning streak, barely -- Markets have been on a tear for over a week now. In a change of pace, stocks spent most of the today underwater and then began a slow rise. By the close, stocks had come from behind and finished with minor gains. The S&P 500 has now risen six out of the last seven days. The NASDAQ has finished with gains for ten days straight. The results are clear to see at Alert HQ. The number of stocks on our list of Trend Leaders has surged to over 400. Again, we are se...

The stock market sure rallied last week. Can it continue at this pace? Monday belonged to the financials. Analyst Meredith Whitney actually came out with a Buy rating. It was on Goldman Sachs (GS) and, delivering on heightened expectations, Goldman came through with a killer earnings report. Wednesday was all about tech. As reported Tuesday evening, Intel not only beat on earnings but they also delivered a forecast that fired up the market. Their CEO's comments on expectations of a firmer second half and the appearance that customers seem to be restocking inventories at a higher than anticipated rate were exactly the kind of positive words investors were looking for. As the week progressed, Google (GOOG) beat but saw their shares droop and IBM beat and saw their shares jump. For the most part then, tech was on a roll and the entire market went along for the ride. Economic reports kept pushing the "less bad" theme with NY Empire State Index, the Industrial Production and R...

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. The view from Alert HQ -- You really can't complain about this week in the stock market. With positive comments from Meridith Whitney, great earnings from Goldman Sachs, JP M...

What's going on with commodities? We just released Thursday's Swing Trading Signals and I was struck by how many commodity ETFs are generating BUY signals. Most are energy related ETFs but there is a sprinkling of other types, as well. Here is a preview of the list: Symbol Name DBC POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND DBE POWERSHARES DB ENERGY FUND GSG ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY-INDEXED TRUST JJE IPATH DOW JONES-UBS ENERGY SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN ETN DUE OCTOBER 22, 2037 JJT IPATH DOW JONES-UBS TIN SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN ETN DUE JUNE 24, 2038 OIL BARCLAYS BANK PLC IPATH EXCHANGE TRADED NOTES LINKED TO GOLDMAN SACHS CRUDE OIL TOTAL RETURN INDEX OLO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL SHORT EXCHANGE TRADED NOTES DUE 6/1/2038 UHN UNITED STATES HEATING OIL FUND, LP USL UNITED STATES 12 MONTH OIL FUND, LP Some of these ETFs are quite well known and some are rather obscure. Nevertheless, this is a signal that a resurgence in commodities is under way. If you are a tra...

It looked like today might result in profit taking but instead we got a fine follow through on the previous days' rally. With jobless claims under 600K for the second week in a row, continuing claims finally showing a decrease and JP Morgan Chase reporting excellent earnings, the bulls wouldn't be denied today. The view from Alert HQ -- The buildup in BUY signals on our Swing Signals list gave us a suspicion that a rally was on the way. Sure enough, that's what we've had this week. The number of Swing Trading Signals today has receded but the majority are BUY signals. If they are truly a leading indicator, the outlook now should be that the rally is slowing down. On the other hand, our list of Trend Leaders continues to bulk up. It has been steadily growing and reflecting the return of bullishness to the market as more and more stocks and ETFs begin to display strong uptrends. A further confirmation of the positive tone is found in our Trend Busters list where BUY signa...

Intel's good earnings report and positive forecast for the second half of the year lit a fire under many tech stocks today. It's a not a stretch to conclude that, if Intel is doing well, so will other companies in the semiconductor sector. But the benefits aren't limited to the semiconductor sector. There is another sector that might not immediately come to mind that I think will also see improved results. Contract electronics manufacturing -- Intel has said that one reason their expectations for the rest of the year are looking better is that there seems to be solid demand from the consumer, especially in emerging markets and China. If Intel is selling more microprocessors, someone must be using them in finished goods, especially consumer electronics products. These days, much of the assembly of electronic products is outsourced. It would seem that those companies in the contract electronics manufacturing sector will see more business coming their way. There are a number o...

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 160 Swing Signals -- 151 BUY signals and 6 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs. 98 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 59 stocks that are new additions to the list and 13 that fell off the previous list. 18 Trend Busters of which 12 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals. After Monday's big rally, stocks hang tough on Tuesday -- Stocks had a big day on Monday. The S&P 500, for example, rebounded from a sagging support level and avoided dropping through the neckline of the dreaded head-and-shoulders chart pattern that so many market participants were watching. With a couple of so-so economics reports that came out today, stocks had to fight to keep Monday's gains. In the end, stocks managed to hang tough and finish Tuesday with further gains. Aft...

When the market rallied from the March lows, there were a lot of bears who said that it was a "junk rally". They pointed out, rightly, that everything was going up, good stocks and bad stocks, companies with decent earnings prospects and companies without a prayer. Since stocks peaked a month ago, markets have been falling steadily. Now we have the flip side of the coin: good companies are seeing their stock prices fall right along with weak companies. Just to show how exaggerated the situation has become, I ran one of our custom screens. This one identifies those stocks that have shown both year-over-year and sequential gains in both revenues and EPS. This screen yields 193 stocks. The screen further checks to see if the stock is currently on our Trend Leader list which identifies those stocks that are showing strong up-trends according to Aroon, DMI and MACD analysis. This weekend the combined screen yielded only two little know stocks: EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES CORPORATIO...

Well, I'm swamped with another renovation project in my 100-year old house. This time I have a deadline as the wife has arranged to host a 60th anniversary party for her parents. So if you've noticed that the posting here has been a bit anemic lately, it's because I've too busy with the hammer and nails. Today I demolished a ceiling. I pulled down a bunch of mismatched acoustical tiles and discovered that the original plaster was cracked and falling off the lathe. As I took the ceiling down piece by piece, I started thinking about how the market has been cracking and how, over the last four weeks, piece by piece the different sectors have have been succumbing to this correction, failing to make new highs and falling through initial support levels. This week there was actually some decent economic news and the reaction from investors was a big "ho hum". Weekly jobless claims finally fell below 600,000 for the first time since January. The ISM index, though stil...

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ . Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists: Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. This week's results -- Another bad week in the markets: losses in the major averages ranged from 1.6% t...

This is a quick post to announce that we have published Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 72 Swing Signals -- A couple of days ago we had 35 signals, today we have twice as many. Happily, we now have 65 BUY signals, a mere 4 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs. Whoo-hoo! 56 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 18 new stocks that made today's list and 60 that fell off Tuesday's list. 48 Trend Busters of which 5 are BUY signals and 43 are SELL signals The view from Alert HQ -- Talk about mixed signals. If you look at our Swing Signals list you would think the market was in the middle of a big bounce. BUY signals are swamping the SELL signals and we even have a few Strong BUYs. Yes, there's a good sprinkling of tech stocks and tech ETFs but the distribution is pretty broad-based with a good number of different sectors represented, eve...

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ . All are based on daily data. Today we have the following: 35 Swing Signals -- 17 BUY signals and 16 SELL Signals plus 2 Strong BUYs. 98 Trend Leaders , all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 22 stocks that are new additions to the list and 120 that fell off the previous list. 40 Trend Busters of which only 9 are BUY signals and 31 are SELL signals. After last week's sell-off, a terrible Tuesday leaves stocks broadly lower -- Well, today resulted in another shrunken list of Trend Leaders. On the weekend we had 157 stocks and ETFs on the list; after today we're down to 98. Whereas a few weeks ago there were around a thousand, lately we are bouncing around in the one to two hundred range. Similarly, our Trend Busters list reflects similar weakness as the breakouts to the downside outnumber the breakouts to the upside by rou...

Markets are fluctuating and leveraged ETFs are gyrating. If you own any of these ETFs, have you examined your stop levels lately? Back in April I introduced the TradeRadar stop calculator . It emphasized the fact that leveraged ETF performance is driven by the action in an underlying index. It was pretty basic in that it translated movement in the underlying index into changes in the leveraged ETF but it required the user to determine the appropriate underlying index or ETF and to enter most recent prices as well as target stop levels. Major improvements -- I have now rectified some of the major weaknesses and made the calculator a lot easier to use. Here are some of the new features: All the ETFs from ProShares and Direxion are now listed in a drop down. Pick a leveraged ETF and the calculator automatically identifies the appropriate underlying index or ETF that is based on that index. The calculator retrieves the most recent prices for both the leveraged ETF and the underlying index...

This week a worse than expected non-farm payrolls report knocked the wind out of the sails of the stock market. The fact that the best performing index, the NASDAQ, fell 2.3% shows what a lousy week it was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5%, continues its steady march toward double digits. Against this backdrop, it should not be surprising that consumer confidence, as well as the stock market, fell over the past month. With the second quarter finishing up earlier this week it is understandable that some profits might be taken after stocks turned in strong performances. The S&P 500 gained 15% and the NASDAQ gained 20%. Ominously, oil gained 41%. It is no doubt that stocks are now in a correction. The question is: how far will they fall? We look for clues in some of the charts that follow. The view from Alert HQ -- Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below: The chart above shows our analysis of the universe of stocks we evaluate, roug...