Skip to main content

IWM not pointing the way down

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is once again below its 200-day moving average. This is the sixth time this has happened since 2004. To make matters worse, there has been a TradeRadar SELL signal generated on IWM. Other major averages and their corresponding ETFs have also fallen though not quite so far.

Should we be worried?

Currently, IWM is only about 1.3% below its 200-day MA. None of the other major averages or their corresponding ETFs are below their 200-day MA. Things look shaky but we are not getting a serious bearish confirmation from the other indexes.

This looks like more of a confirmation of what some analysts have been saying: there is a rotation out of small caps and into large-caps.

There is also a greater sensitivity to risk sweeping the markets these days. Traditionally, small caps, which make up a large part of the Russell 2000, have been regarded as inherently riskier investments than their large-cap brethren.

On the plus side, earnings season is winding down and earnings weren't too bad. As usual, companies provided conservative guidance and many managed to beat expectations.

Economic news has also been reasonably encouraging except of course in the area of real estate which is pulling the financials down with it. Inflation is under control, jobs are holding up, manufacturing is OK.

I do not believe the tough times for IWM can be considered predictive for the market as whole. IWM is not pointing the way down for the rest of the market.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?

A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months. Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy: Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries A "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation

Unlock Stock Market Profits - Key #1

This is the first in an ongoing series of articles where I discuss what I feel are keys to successful investing. It is based on a post that provides a summary of the ten keys that individual investors should use to identify profitable stock trades. ( Click here to read the original post ) There are two basic steps to investing. First, you need to find stocks that seem to have some potential. Then you have to determine whether these stocks are actually good investments. There are many stocks that at first glance look interesting, but further research reveals that there are too many negatives to warrant taking a position. This first post in the series starts at the beginning: getting good investment ideas. Key #1: If something special is happening to a stock, it will be reflected in some kind of unusual activity in the markets. As individual investors, we will never be the first to know; however, unusual activity can be an early sign that allows us to follow the Wall Street professional

Unlock Stock Market Profits - Key #4

This is the fourth article in a series of posts describing 10 tools to help you identify and evaluate good investing ideas. It is based on a post that provides a summary of the ten keys that individual investors should use to identify profitable stock trades. ( Click here to read the original post ) With this fourth post, we will continue another step along the path of finding stocks that seem to have some potential. The first post in the series discussed how to use unusual activity to identify investing ideas. The second post described how to use stock screeners. The third post described how to use lists of new highs and new lows. This post will focus on identifying social or business trends in order to find investing ideas. Information on new trends might turn up anywhere. In conversation with friends or business associates, in newspapers or magazines, on TV or though your work. The key is to be aware of trends and how they start, stop or change. We'll start by describing what