the Trade-Radar + TradingStockAlerts blog

Since BigBand Networks ( BBND ) is part of our model portfolio, I feel compelled to comment on the devastating news released after the close last Thursday. The company announced that it would encounter a revenue shortfall and be unprofitable in the third quarter. BigBand now expects to report revenue for the third quarter in the range of $35 to $39 million, which is below the company's previous guidance of $54 to $58 million. The lower revenue outlook is due to several factors. BigBand has been deploying switched digital video across an expanding number of customers and configurations. Some of these ongoing deployments have required more software customization and integration than originally expected. In other words, the company underestimated the effort and the timeline. This has impacted their ability to book revenue for some of these deployments in the third quarter. The company also said it experienced a slowdown in Telco-TV revenue, as its "major customer" worked thr...

This has been a weekend of web site development. First, we updated TradeRadarWeb by rolling out the online version of TradeRadar 2.0 to the site. Now I'd like to announce the inauguration of the TradeRadar Users Group . We have signed up with Ning.com to create a social network dedicated to the TradeRadar software. Included is a discussion forum and the ability to upload photos or screenshots of stock charts, from TradeRadar or elsewhere. You can even create your own blog entries to describe your progress with your portfolio or your use of the TradeRadar software. Since we have over 300 people who have downloaded the software, my hope is that we can now begin to collaborate to identify ways to improve the software or to improve our techniques for using it. I am looking forward to users sharing stock picks, tips on using the software, asking and answering questions and reporting problems or anomalies. See you soon at the TradeRadar Users Group!

This post is to announce that TradeRadarWeb, the online version of the TradeRadar software, has been upgraded to version 2.0 The primary enhancement is that trend lines are now generated to help confirm BUY and SELL signals. If you're running Microsoft Internet Explorer, click here to run TradeRadarWeb now! The software attempts to identify reversals in price movement. In the case of a BUY signal, TradeRadarWeb will now indicate whether an initial downward trend exists and whether a subsequent upward trend is in the process of being formed. The trend lines are displayed on the chart screen overlaying the price graph and moving averages. For more detail, read the post that originally announced the version 2.0 roll-out of the TradeRadar desktop application.

The student loan industry is resigned to disappointment. President Bush signed a bill today that cuts subsidies and increases grants. The bill will reduce profitability at all student loan lenders. It is a prime reason why the buy-out of Sallie Mae (SLM) by a group led by JC Flowers is facing rocky times. The terms of the deal were set at a time when funding for buy-outs was easily obtained and investors were more willing to accept riskier deals. The increased risk due to this bill and today’s credit market situation where investors are demanding higher risk premiums has put this deal in jeopardy. I agree with JC Flowers -- they deserve a better deal. How the bill affects student lending One of the ways lenders make money is through the subsidies paid by the U.S. Education Department on subsidized loans in the Federal Family Educational Loan (FFEL) program. The FFEL program consists of Stafford and PLUS loans. Stafford loans are the first ones financial aid administrators advise stude...

Today I decided it was time to climb on board the tech stock bandwagon. Accordingly, I bought the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF ( ROM ). I have been a schizophrenic investor for a while now. I have recommended a number of tech stocks in the TradeRadar model portfolio: Cisco, Qualcomm, BigBand; recently I sold SanDisk and Millicom Cellular. All the while I have also been maintaining a position in the Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF ( QID ), which essentially comprises a bet against the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100. I picked up QID when the TradeRadar software generated a SELL signal on the QQQQ earlier this year and I have a hard time figuring out if I'm keeping it as a hedge or I'm just reluctant to take a loss. Maybe that's a discussion for a post on investor psychology. In an case, I am tilting much more toward being bullish on tech now due to several developments including the action in the markets as reflected in the TradeRadar software and the fact that underlying fundamentals...

Today on 24/7 Wall Street , a post titled "A Motorola (MOT) Rally" cast doubt on the stock's recent advance and questioned positive analyst comments. The post is brief so I will quote it in its entirety: "Motorola's (MOT) shares are up almost 10% since late last month. RBS recently upgraded the shares due to a strengthening handset market and improved products, according to Barron's. Cowen upgraded the stock last week. Most of the improvement in the share price is based on two theories. The first is that the overall demand for handsets is rising. But, Motorola may be getting no benefit from this, Its market share dropped from a high of 22% over a year ago to a current level of under 15%. Samsung and Sony Ericsson have taken a great deal of that business. And, Nokia's (NOK) piece of the market is still growing, approaching 40%. Even in a rising market, MOT's market share may be continuing to fall. The second line of thinking is that new models will rep...

The most famous of the SaaS stocks is Salesforce.com ( CRM ) and certainly its CEO Marc Benioff has been outspoken and flamboyant in his announcements that SaaS is the next big thing and his company is in the vanguard of the movement. In many ways, SaaS is the next big thing and the large-cap software companies like SAP and Microsoft are making attempts to play in this sector. What many investors may not have noticed is that there is a group of smaller companies that, as start-ups, committed to SaaS as a primary vision and have been quietly reaping the rewards ever since. These firms include: Taleo ( TLEO ), Concur Technologies ( CNQR ), Ultimate Software ( ULTI ) and Omniture ( OMTR ). These four stocks have more than doubled since September 2005. They are all small caps trading on the NASDAQ. Three have rather similar charts with Omniture setting itself apart from the others by tripling over the time frame. Let's take a closer look at each one. Taleo The focus of Taleo is human ...