Skip to main content

Weekly Market Update - Minor Decline

Weekly Market Call

Not much news this week and what there was was not particularly positive. As a result, the Dow and the S&P took a bit of a breather while the NASDAQ decided to perk up and hit a new 6-year high. The Russell 2000 also tacked on another one percent this week and now leads all the major indexes with a year-to-date gain of 4.9%

Probably the biggest news of the week was that the core CPI for January was up 0.3%. This was the largest gain since June but did not do much to ignite fears of inflation and the market largely shrugged it off.

In other news, commodity prices continued firming and oil pushed above $61 per barrel. Once again, the market shrugged it off. A few large caps reported earnings and it was a non-event. Fed policy committee meeting minutes were released on Wednesday. They were a bit more bearish in tone than Bernanke's recent remarks but appeared to have little effect on the market.

ETF Comments

Indexes - If you are watching the ETFs that track the major indexes, it appears QQQQ has now joined the party and is setting new highs as SPY and DIA have been doing so consistently lately. The TradeRadar SELL signal has now been definitely reversed.

Commodities - With oil up this week, XLE gained but is still a way from making a new high or even establishing a clear up trend. Caution is advised.

Technology - XLK is still looking a lot like QQQQ but stopped just short of making a new high this week. XLK continues to benefit as rotation out of energy continues and money looks to move into the next undervalued growth area which the market thinks is tech.

Housing - XHB slipped this past week and on the basis of several weeks of lackluster performance now merits a weak TradeRadar SELL signal. The unstoppable IYR has run into some headwinds but is nowhere near generating a SELL signal. The turmoil in the sub-prime mortgage lending market seems to be having at most just a small effect on these two ETFs.

Biotech - XBI was up this week, continuing its recovery from its early January low. It continues to flash the TradeRadar potential BUY signal that was first mentioned last week. An excellent article discussing the various ETFs in the Biotech sector can be found here.

TradeRadar Stock Picks

The Pick o' the Month for February, which called for selling QQQQ and buying QID, the UltraShort QQQ ETF, continues to look like a pretty dumb move. Having closed the week at $50.25, we are now down $2.43 or 4.6%. During this time period QQQQ gained 2.8%. This is a real disappointment. I felt confident that these kinds of plays using TradeRadar could be done when both the long and the short ETFs are showing strong signals. In this case, TradeRadar did show a good SELL signal for QQQQ and showed a pretty decent BUY signal for QID. My sense that this was a real contrarian position caused me some trepidation and it now appears that I should have exercised more caution about about going short in a rising market.

Luckily, some of the other picks fared better this week. Generex (GNBT) closed the week at $1.90 yielding a gain of 12% after receiving a Buy recommendation from the Jesup & Lamont brokerage. Tarragon Corp. (TARR) also closed up this week at $12.77 and we are now showing a gain of almost 10%. PacificNet (PACT) regained some of the ground lost last week and managed to close at $6.17. Our gain in PACT has dwindled to only 18% but, having reported two new contracts this week, I still feel this one is worth holding on to.

In summary, the TradeRadar stock picks are not setting the world on fire but we seem to be in positive territory for all of them except QID.


Popular posts from this blog

Running TradeRadar on Windows 7 and Windows 8

Development of the original TradeRadar Stock Inspector software was begun back in the days before Windows 7 and Windows 8 were available.

As these newer versions of Windows have become more popular, we have heard from some users that they are having problems installing and running TradeRadar on their newer PCs.

The good news is that TradeRadar will work just fine on Windows 7 and Windows 8. All you have to do is adjust the Windows Compatibility Settings to ensure TradeRadar runs as intended.

It is recommended that you can apply Compatibility Settings when running the initial installation; however, it is also possible to apply Compatibility Settings after the program has been installed.

Prior to installation
After downloading the install program, go to the folder where you have stored the TradeRadarStkInsp_7_Setup.exe or TradeRadarStkInsp_7_PRO_Setup.exe executable. Right-click on the executable file and select Properties. Click the Compatibility tab. Adjust the Compatibility mode to …

Alert HQ has moved!

End of an era!

This site was started way back in 2006/2007 to showcase my blog posts and the Alert HQ buy signals and sell signals. Alert HQ grew to include other kinds of stock alerts including Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders, Cash Flow Kings and more.

In the meantime, I built a sister site, and I started using some of the same Alert HQ content over there. As a result, I am discontinuing the Alert HQ data here at

The good news, however, is that all the Alert HQ signals and stock screens are still completely free. In addition, the pages have been enhanced so that you can hover over a stock symbol and a small chart will pop up so you can get a quick look at the stock's recent price action. If you click on a symbol it will take you to a page with plenty of financial and technical analysis information (still free!) as well as a larger chart that you can play with in terms of adding or deleting indicators, moving averages, etc.

Click …

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:

Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:

Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.