Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Month End Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 30, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 53 Swing Signals -- 37 BUY signals and 13 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs.
  • 198 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 75 stocks that are new additions to the list and 23 that fell off the previous list.
  • 16 Trend Busters of which 9 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals.
The view from Alert HQ --

I have been vacationing the last few days so I will freely admit that I have not been following the little daily dramas taking place in the markets this week. What I can see from today's signals, however, confirms my suspicions as voiced in Saturday's post. At that time I said I thought I was beginning to see stocks begin to pull out of their recent swoon. The number of Trend Leaders has doubled since last week. Swing Signals continue to show BUY signals predominating. Things are quiet with our Trend Busters - they are few in number and more or less evenly split between BUY and SELL signals. So two out of three of today's lists have a bullish bias. I am suspecting that will continue. Keep in mind, though, this is a busy week for economic reports. As long the various employment reports, the ISM index and factory orders show some improvement, I think we will see the rally continue.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Saturday, June 27, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 26, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:

  • Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside
  • Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends
  • Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater
  • Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band
  • Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
  • Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend.
This week's results --

It turned out to be a lackluster week in the markets. The S&P 500 fell fractionally and the NASDAQ was up fractionally, a result of how stocks fought back to erase a big 3% drop on Monday. Economic news was not particularly positive with home sales and jobs disappointing. The week was probably saved by an upside surprise in Durable Goods and a good earnings report from Oracle.

When looking at this week's Alert HQ results, I get the feeling the market is catching its breath for another big move. We are seeing a surge in Swing Signals, the Bollinger Band Breakouts are holding steady with a bullish bias and the Trend Leaders are starting to show some improvement with very few falling off the most recent list. I'm getting the impression that maybe the widely expected correction is not yet underway. We shall see...

Here is the detailed breakdown for Alert HQ for this weekend:
  • Based on daily data, we have 6 Alert HQ BUY signals and 13 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 7 Alert HQ BUY signals and 9 SELL signals
  • Based on daily data, we have 146 Trend Leaders. 55 new stocks joined the list since Thursday and only 7 fell off the list since Thursday.
  • Based on daily data, we have 288 Bollinger Band Breakouts but we also have 194 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 816 Cash Flow Kings
  • Based on daily data we have 208 Swing Signals of which 197 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals. In addition, there are 4 Strong BUY signals today
  • Finally, we have Trend Busters with 20 signals based on daily data and 59 based on weekly data
Visit Alert HQ and download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the TrendLeaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Thursday, June 25, 2009

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 25, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 305 Swing Signals -- Wow! What a huge increase in signals and almost all of them are bullish: 290 BUY signals and 4 SELL Signals plus 11 Strong BUYs
  • 98 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 40 new stocks that made today's list and 28 that fell off Tuesday's list.
  • 20 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 14 are SELL signals
The view from Alert HQ --

Another Swing Signals list with Strong BUYs! That's twice this week. There is no doubt that many stocks are bouncing off their lower Bollinger Band. If this can translate into good breadth over the next few days we could see markets taking another leg up.

On the other hand, our list of Trend Leaders dwindled again; however, there is quite a bit of filtering on the indicators used to generate the list of Trend Leaders so they tend to lag major market moves by a bit.

So our Swing Trading Signals are the leading indicators and our Trend Leaders do a good job of confirming a new trend. It is worth keeping an eye on both.

Using the signals --

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Durable Goods Report - tech fundamentals finally breaking downtrends?

Today's Durable Goods reports surprised to the upside and helped the stock market regain some of the previous few days losses. The following is our analysis of what the report says about the tech sector.

Semiconductors --

In April, Semiconductors put together a surprisingly strong month with Shipments showing a 34% gain over March. This month, Semiconductors gave a little back. The following chart reflects an upward adjustment for April and a very modest drop-off in May. Though the trend is still clearly down, the appearance of a bottom is finally coming into view.


Computers --

This month's outstanding performance belongs to the Computers and Related Products category where New Orders surged 9.4% after dropping mid-single digits in the previous two months. The chart below reflects a downward adjustment in April and the nice move upward in May. This chart shows the clearest evidence of the downward trend finally being broken.


Shipments in this category also seem to be stabilizing and reversing the down-trend. The following chart shows Shipments reaching their nadir back in November 2008 and struggling to maintain a positive direction since then.


A view of the entire tech sector --

Pulling back from individual sub-categories to look at the high tech manufacturing sector as a whole, the following charts look at the Computers and Electronic Products category. This includes computers and semiconductors, computer peripherals, communications equipment, storage, audio/video, navigation equipment, medical equipment and measurement and control instruments.

The good news in the tech sector as a whole is that New Orders were up 2.2% in May. This is twice the Durable Goods headline number that served as a catalyst to propel the stock market higher today. The following chart shows New Orders hitting their low in January 2009, bouncing back and stabilizing at what is a historically low level.


Shipments for the tech sector as a whole, however, are still weak. This next chart shows what could be a bottom but there are really only two data points for bulls to hang their hat on and neither one is especially outstanding. It can be assumed that a large percentage of New Orders may have been canceled and hence never turned into shipments.


Conclusion --

Last month we reviewed a set of similar charts and concluded that tech was making an erratic effort to put in a bottom despite the fact that trends in shipments and new orders appeared to still point downward. This month, the signs are a bit clearer that, indeed, the worst is behind us.

The upswing in New Orders for Computers is certainly good news, especially for companies like Dell and HP. Furthermore, this will have to translate into real shipments in Semiconductors eventually (is Intel on your watch list?). So in this case we should get improvement in two sectors.

The shadow hovering over this sunny scenario, however, is the possibility of order cancellations. Inventories have been dropping for many months now so that risk should be lessening; nevertheless, with today's tightly managed supply chains, an uptick in unemployment or some other macro-economic stumble could pull the rug out from under the sector.

Overall, the picture these charts paint is quite encouraging. If you accept that the worst is now behind us in the tech sector, then it would make sense to be scaling into tech stocks and tech-focused ETFs. Some might argue that the fundamentals do not quite justify current prices but it is clear that growth stories are lurking in this sector and growth is seldom cheap.

Disclosure: long ROM, USD and IGN



Tuesday, June 23, 2009

One reason big tech will beat this quarter

Oracle reported earnings after the close today. The news wasn't bad. Revenue and profit were down single digits but earnings per share still managed to beat Wall Street expectations by a couple of pennies.

Signs of things to come?

Oracle's CFO indicated that the company executed extremely well this quarter and that sales of support contracts had a positive impact on the bottom line. The CFO singled out a strong dollar as one reason for the declines in sales and income.

On a year-over-year basis, Oracle's CFO is correct; the dollar is indeed significantly higher now than it was in last year's quarter. This is clear to see on the chart below.

On the other hand, looking at the dollar over the last few months, the chart shows that it has fallen roughly 10% since peaking in early March 2009.


Looking at earnings for the most recent quarter, tech stocks with significant international sales will benefit from the dollar dropping. Year over year, earnings may still look poor but it may not be so hard to beat analyst estimates for the current quarter with exchange rates cooperating as they have been for the last few months.



Bumpy Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 23, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 56 Swing Signals -- 36 BUY signals and 16 SELL Signals plus 4 Strong BUYs.
  • 86 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 19 stocks that are new additions to the list and 90 that fell off the previous list.
  • 180 Trend Busters of which only 12 are BUY signals and 168 are SELL signals.
After Monday's sell-off, Tuesday's bumpy ride leaves stocks flat on the day --

More weakness in the market has prolonged the shrinkage in our list of Trend Leaders. On the weekend we had 157 stocks and ETFs on the list, after today there are only 86. A few weeks ago there were around a thousand. Leadership in this market is getting mighty scarce.

Similarly, our Trend Busters list reflects further weakness as the breakouts to the downside greatly outnumber the breakouts to the upside.

As stocks continue last week's correction, however, it comes as a surprise that our Swing Signals list is leaning toward the positive side with more than twice as many BUY signals as SELL signals and four Strong BUYs to boot. Could this be an indication stocks are finding support at current levels? Many major averages are hovering around 200-day moving averages and are near their lower Bollinger Bands. If economic reports cooperate, we could see this correction begin to turn around. Then again...

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Sunday, June 21, 2009

How to use the TradeRadar software - new slideshow gives you all the basics

I have contended that the TradeRadar software is very easy to use; however, setting up the chart to generate the indicators may not be immediately obvious to new users. The slideshow below describes how to use the new "Auto" feature as a shortcut. It goes on to explain how to evaluate our indicators and make your final Buy or Sell decision. (Look for the icon that allows you to view in full screen mode.)


Note that the "Auto" feature can be turned off so you can manually adjust the date range, the filtering and sensitivity if you so desire.

More info --

The following links provide more information and show you where to download:
  • TradeRadar Help File - more details on how to load data, deeper discussion of indicators and description of the portfolio history functionality
  • Features page - more screenshots of features not covered in the slideshow
  • Download page - downloads are always free. Full installs and simple upgrades are available.
If you have further questions, be sure to leave a comment or email me.

Hat tip to SlideShow.net for providing the ability to put presentations on line. This site rocks!



Saturday, June 20, 2009

Weekly Review - stocks look tired

Stocks dropped this past week but thankfully it could not be considered a rout. It is almost unbelievable that for the S&P 500 this is only the third down week we have seen since early March!

Though down like all the other indexes, the NASDAQ was the week's best performer. This was despite a sell-off in Blackberry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) who announced better than expected earnings but delivered an uninspiring forecast and solid but not overwhelming debut for Apple's new iPhone.

On the economic front, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed that manufacturing slid again in May after a couple of months of improvement while factory utilization continues to drift at record low levels. The housing market showed more small signs of improvement but it wasn't enough to keep stocks moving up.

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:


The chart above shows our analysis of the universe of stocks we evaluate, roughly 7200 of them. A couple of weeks ago, I said that we can see from these moving average statistics that after a very constructive phase we have been going through a period of indecision. Prior to that I had said things looked "toppy". After this week's modest market decline, these conclusions look ever more accurate. Still, they don't necessarily provide a clear indication of the path forward though the bias does seem to be downward now.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. It looks at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis.


While the number of stocks in strong up-trends is not extremely high, it is clear stock prices have been stagnating, with this number moving up and down within a range that is a bit below the middle of our scale.

The number of stocks in strong down-trends is still rather low but it has been increasing slowly for the last few months. As the weakest of the stocks that were caught in the post-March low updraft begin to give up unsustainable (undeserved?) gains, this indicator should indeed be coming off the extreme lows seen a couple of months ago.

The following chart show SPY, the S&P 500 SPDR ETF. I have drawn two line on the chart: the blue line is the up-ward trend line and the magenta line is the first support line.


It can be seen that SPY has violated both lines, dropping below the trend line and dropping below the support line.

Does this mean the market is about to plunge?

It is hard to think we won't see more weakness but it is even harder to think the market will plunge. From a technical point of view, the initial support line was too close to the recent high so it is no wonder it was violated. The trend line is fairly steep, so no surprise that it, too, was violated. Note that the 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average. This is generally considered a bullish signal for chart watchers. SPY also approached its 200-day MA but did not break below it, also a good sign.

On the other hand, if SPY doesn't jump over the trend and support lines illustrated above and regain its highs, then we are no doubt headed down to the region around $90 or even $87. That would equate to drops of 2.1% and 5.4%, not very serious pullbacks at all.

Conclusion --

Our charts show stocks range bound with a better than 50% chance of further weakness. The refrain lately among stock market pundits is that investors are now looking for real economic improvement, not just the "less bad" theme.

Accordingly, we will have plenty to chew on this week. The economic calendar is full with Existing Home Sales, the Durable Goods report, New Home Sales, the FOMC rate decision (the statement will no doubt be more important that the actual rate decision), initial jobless claims, the final numbers for Q1 GDP (old news by now), Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core (all liable to market moving for the consumer discretionary sector) and the Michigan Comsumer Sentiment report.

Dare I say it? Markets seem to have returned to normalcy. Stocks weaken when the economic backdrop dims. Banks are returning TARP money and resuming some measure of independence. Major averages are not showing extreme volatility. A few people are even buying houses.

A pullback seems in the cards now. As long as it is only a moderate pullback it can probably be considered a healthy development, allowing time for the economy to develop a few more signs of recovery which could provide the catalyst for the next move up. In the meantime, stocks are looking tired.



Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 19, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:

  • Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside
  • Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends
  • Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater
  • Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band
  • Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
  • Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend.
This week's results --

Markets barely budged this past week. We have seen essentially nine trading days of consolidation in a fairly narrow range. Still, with the exception of the Russell 2000, all the major averages managed to register small gains this week. This quiet trading is reflected in our signals which show no drastic changes one or the other this weekend.

Here is the detailed breakdown for Alert HQ for this weekend:
  • Based on daily data, we have 3 Alert HQ BUY signals and 48 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 14 Alert HQ BUY signals and 13 SELL signals
  • Based on daily data, we have 157 Trend Leaders, a big noticeable decrease from last weekend. 45 new stocks joined the list since Thursday and 35 fell off the list since Thursday.
  • Based on daily data, we have 76 Bollinger Band Breakouts but we also have 167 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 838 Cash Flow Kings
  • Based on daily data we have 98 Swing Signals of which 87 are BUY signals and 5 are SELL signals. In addition, there are 5 Strong BUY signals today
  • Finally, we have Trend Busters with 27 signals based on daily data and 55 based on weekly data
Visit Alert HQ and download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the TrendLeaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Friday, June 19, 2009

What Bing might cost Google (it's not peanuts!)

Part of the excitement over Microsoft's new Bing search engine has been the fact that it seems to be getting a pretty fair amount of traffic.

So far, it seems that Microsoft (MSFT) has gained search share at the expense of Yahoo! while Google's search share has remained relatively steady. If Bing's popularity grows, however, it's bound to make a dent in Google's dominance of search.

So what would be the impact if users began to give up Google (GOOG) in favor of Bing?

Here are a few numbers to consider:

  • Google derives 99% of their revenue from advertising.
  • Google derives 69% of ad revenue from "Google web sites". This means Google search and other sites owned by Google such as YouTube. The vast majority of the revenue is derived from search advertising.
  • According to the most recent annual report, advertising revenue from "Google web sites" was $14.4 billion.
  • Google's overall share of search according to ComScore's most recent measure for May is about 65%, a 0.8% increase over April.
If Bing begins to gain search share from Google, the financial impact to Google would look something like this:

A 65% search share equates to $14.4B in annual ad revenue for Google. So for every percent of search share that Google loses, it would cost the company roughly $220 million in revenue.

At this rate, Google will not take the Bing threat lightly. Look for Google to respond aggressively if Bing starts to really take off.

Disclosure: no positions



Thursday, June 18, 2009

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 18, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 87 Swing Signals -- 70 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals plus 5 Strong BUYs
  • 147 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 35 new stocks that made today's list and 140 that fell off Tuesday's list.
  • 79 Trend Busters of which 8 are BUY signals and 71 are SELL signals
The view from Alert HQ --

It's good to see some Strong BUYs appear on our list of Swing Trading signals again. We've gone at least a week and a half without any Strong BUY or SELL signals. For that matter, the BUY signals greatly outnumber the SELL signals on the Swing Trading list and that might be a hint that stocks are getting ready to rally again.

On the other hand, it is worrisome to see our list of trend leaders reduced to under 150 when just a week or so ago we had well over 500. This is why some say stocks are in a no-man's land, testing the 200-day moving average while trend indicators deteriorate, but so far resisting a serious break to the downside.

Using the signals --

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Troublesome Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 16, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 56 Swing Signals -- 24 BUY signals and 32 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
  • 252 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 37 stocks that are new additions to the list and 450 that fell off the previous list.
  • 197 Trend Busters of which only 23 are BUY signals and 174 are SELL signals.
Today's signals paint a troubling picture --

First, our list of Trend Leaders has been decimated in the last two trading days. On the weekend we had 665 stocks and ETFs on the list, after today there are only 252.

Conversely, today we have a big increase in the number of stocks and ETFs on our Trend Busters list. What is worrisome is that a big proportion of those that are breaking to the up-side are inverse ETFs.

So we see fewer stocks in strong up-trends and more inverse ETFs breaking to the up-side. This does not bode well for the market in the near term. Indeed, both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 broke below their 20-day MA today. We are now coming up on a test of the 200-day MA, which, I guess, should be no surprise after such a steep climb from the March lows. Let's hope this is just a minor correction and not a reassertion of the bear.

Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Sunday, June 14, 2009

Small-Cap 'SuperList' - three stocks exploding to the upside

Time for another custom "SuperList" stock screen from the TradeRadar database.

Today's stock screen starts by looking at stocks that have shown EPS growth. They have sequential quarter-over-quarter growth as well as year-over-year growth. There are currently 617 stocks that meet that criterion.

The list below, however, took that sample of 617 and whittled it down by looking only for those stocks that are currently on both the Trend Leaders list and Bollinger Band Breakout list for this weekend. These stocks are exploding upward.

SymbolNameLast PriceMarket Cap
MFWM & F WORLDWIDE CORP.$25.74$497,600,000
ATNIAtlantic Tele-Network, Inc.$38.46$585,700,000
BIDSOTHEBY'S$14.55$974,600,000

What's driving the gains in these stocks?

For ATNI, it is acquisition news. The company, a cellular system operator, is buying certain wireless properties from Verizon, including wireless spectrum licenses and network assets, serving over 800,000 subscribers primarily in rural areas across Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, and Idaho. Verizon is being driven to divest these properties as part of the regulatory approvals granted for its purchase of Alltel earlier this year. The stock market apparently loves this deal. ATNI increases their size and scale, increases revenue diversification and subscriber base. The deal increases ATNI's U.S. footprint significantly and was apparently done at a reasonable price.

It is more difficult to determine why MFW is breaking out. Back on May 8, the company reported blowout earnings with net income for the first quarter of $51.3 million or $2.64 per share, compared to $12.5 million or $0.58 per share in the year-ago quarter. Since then the stock has moved marginally upward but this week saw huge moves on Thursday and Friday as the stock surged above its 200-day moving average. It isn't like the company is in some currently sexy business. They print checks for bank customers, supply software for financial institutions and, oddly, licorice products for tobacco and food or pharmaceutical processors. Maybe this is a delayed reaction to great earnings.

Finally there is Sotheby's (BID). The company is well known as an auctioneer of fine art, antiques and decorative art, and jewelry and collectibles primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, the People's Republic of China, and France. With this stock, there isn't one big event that is driving the stock price. It appears to be an accumulation of news that is reassuring investors. For example, there have been several auctions that went well recently. Investors may also be focused on early signs of an overall economic recovery which should translate into improved sales for luxury goods vendors such as Sotheby's.


So here is our list of stocks with surging stock prices but with fundamentals that may actually justify the price gains. It could be worth keeping an eye on these guys.

Disclosure: no positions



Saturday, June 13, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 12, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:

  • Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside
  • Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends
  • Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater
  • Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band
  • Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
  • Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend.
This week's results --

Markets barely budged this past week. We have seen essentially nine trading days of consolidation in a fairly narrow range. Still, with the exception of the Russell 2000, all the major averages managed to register small gains this week. This quiet trading is reflected in our signals which show no drastic changes one or the other this weekend.

Here is the detailed breakdown for Alert HQ for this weekend:
  • Based on daily data, we have 3 Alert HQ BUY signals and 16 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 29 Alert HQ BUY signals and 7 SELL signals
  • Based on daily data, we have 665 Trend Leaders, a noticeable decrease from last weekend. 64 new stocks joined the list since Thursday and 154 fell off the list since Thursday.
  • Based on daily data, we have 139 Bollinger Band Breakouts but we also have 410 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 830 Cash Flow Kings
  • Based on daily data we have 31 Swing Signals of which 8 are BUY signals and 23 are SELL signals. No Strong BUY or Strong SELL signals today
  • Finally, we have Trend Busters with 38 signals based on daily data and 42 based on weekly data
Visit Alert HQ and download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the TrendLeaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Friday, June 12, 2009

Google on TV - is a starring role on the way?

Microsoft (MSFT) has rolled out Bing, their new search engine, to much fanfare and with a multimillion dollar advertising campaign. But are they fighting last year's battle?

Google (GOOG), as everyone knows, dominates search advertising with its AdWords offering. They are also strong in pay per click through AdSense. The company has struggled with print ads and radio ads and ultimately abandoned both efforts.

One area where Google has persisted is television. The company offers a service that works much like a combination of AdSense and AdWords except the ads are filmed TV commercials.

Like AdWords, an advertiser creates an ad, sets a daily budget and bids on placing the ad on shows or channels that are a good marketing fit. Much like AdSense, the TV networks offer ad inventory at relatively low cost with the expectation that the ads supplied by Google will be relevant to the viewers of the programming.

Google hasn't registered the kind of success they have seen in the search advertising arena but they seem to be committed to expanding the service.

Until recently, the Google TV advertising was limited to the 13 million households that get TV service through the Dish Network. Google has increased coverage this year by making deals with several national cable networks such as CNBC, Bravo, MTV, USA, and MSNBC. Google contends it has increased its reach now to 95 million households. The four major broadcast networks, however, are not yet accepting Google TV Ads.

Still, it is known that TV advertising works. Google TV ads now make targeted television advertising available to small companies for a mere few thousand dollars. Adding to the attraction for advertisers is Google's ability to supply data. Google is able to provide real-time data on viewers via Dish set-top boxes. They provide info on how many people watched an ad, how long an ad is watched before the channel is changed and whether it was watched on a DVR. Advertisers can easily determine where response is best and reduce advertising on those shows or channels where the results are not meeting expectations.

Being an Internet company, Google is well aware that users are increasingly watching TV shows online. Consequently, the company is setting up agreements to run their ads on online shows. So far, this initiative is in a beta stage and, significantly, the company has not yet partnered with Hulu, one of the most popular TV viewing sites. It can be assumed, though, that Google will not lag in the Internet channel for long.

Conclusion --

If Google can gain more traction among advertisers with their TV ads, it will be easier for them to increase their reach across more TV channels and networks. With marketing budgets under pressure during this recession, it seems like a good time for Google to press their case. Their current advertising systems seem to be a good fit for TV and this seems to represent a good way to extend their business in a new direction. With their market share in search advertising maxing out, Google could use a new venue to exercise their strengths.

In the meantime, Microsoft is nipping at Google's heels with Bing and has not yet even begun to think about TV. Google's ability to pioneer new advertising channels like this should continue to keep it ahead of its competitors.

Hat tip to InfoNgen.com and Inc.com for background used in this post



Thursday, June 11, 2009

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 11, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 23 Swing Signals -- 11 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs
  • 755 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 190 new stocks that made today's list and 197 that fell off Tuesday's list.
  • 24 Trend Busters of which 4 are BUY signals and 20 are SELL signals
Sad to say there are no Strong BUYs in our list of Swing Signals today.

If you're wondering what large-cap tech is doing these days, sort our Trend Leaders list by market cap. You'll see everyone's favorite tech stocks there including stodgy old Microsoft that is actually the center of buzz and controversy these days now that they have introduced their new search engine Bing.

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Formal release of TradeRadar software version 4.1 now available

This post is to announce that the full install of TradeRadar version 4.1 is now available. For those who have never used TradeRadar, this will provide all the components necessary to install and run this most recent version of the software.

The two screens that have been updated are now displayed on the Features page. The Download pages now provide both the 4.1 upgrade and the 4.1 full install. In addition, the latest help file is available for your review.

New Features in version 4.1 --

The major new features in this version include the following:
  • Auto checkbox – automatically sets up the chart for the type of signal you are looking for. Select either BUY signal – smooth or SELL signal – smooth. Click the Update Chart button and the software will automatically try to find the best chart setup.
  • Classic Trend – For a BUY signal using daily data, for example, this chart feature shows the line that could be drawn connecting the cyclic peaks made by the daily high prices. When the stock closes above this trend line, you would have a classic trend reversal. This is different from the TradeRadar slope or trend calculation that is related to daily closing prices.
  • "Signal in the Zone" indicator – For a signal to be valid, it has to be in the "zone." This new Dashboard indicator describes whether the TradeRadar signal is sort of in the zone, solidly in the zone or completely out of the zone. This is very important for confirming the analysis derived from the other TradeRadar indicators.
As mentioned above, you can check out screen shots and read the help file on our Features page. For more detailed descriptions of the new features, check out our earlier post "Advance Release - TradeRadar Stock Analysis Software version 4.1"

Feedback welcome --

Try the new version of TradeRadar. Let us know how it works for you. Feel free to leave your opinions in the comments or email TradeRadarOperator directly (see the Contact Me box in the left sidebar). I am always happy to respond to questions on the install process or any other issues you may encounter.



Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 9, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 23 Swing Signals -- 8 BUY signals and 15 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
  • 762 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 158 stocks that are new additions to the list and 286 that fell off the previous list.
  • 14 Trend Busters of which 5 are BUY signals and 9 are SELL signals
Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Monday, June 8, 2009

Advance Release - TradeRadar Stock Analysis Software version 4.1

Tonight I'd like to announce the advance release of the TradeRadar stock analysis software version 4.1

Three new features --

The major new features in this version include the following:

Auto checkbox – This probably what many have been waiting for. The Auto checkbox tells the software to automatically set up the chart for the type of signal you are looking for. For those who are new to the software, figuring out how to choose the start date for analyzing a BUY signal or SELL signal can be difficult. This little checkbox lets the software handle it all for you.

Classic Trend Line – This is best explained using an example. For a BUY signal using daily data, this chart feature shows the dotted line that could be drawn connecting the cyclic peaks of the daily high prices. If the price closes above this Classic Trend Line, it is considered a reversal to the up-side. This is different from the TradeRadar slope or trend calculation that is related to daily closing prices. (Note: Classic Trend Lines are what our Trend Busters list is based on)

"Signal in the Zone" indicator – located right next to the Signal Strength indicator on the Dashboard screen, this indicator shows whether the trailing edge of the signal on the lower chart is below the horizontal green line. If the signal is above the green line, the indicator is red. If it is less than 20% below the green line, the indicator is yellow. It it’s more than 20% below the line the indicator is green. This is used to confirm the analysis derived from the other TradeRadar indicators. If this indicator isn't green, don't believe the signal!

Download version 4.1 upgrade

Tonight, the upgrade is being made available. Those of you who have already installed a prior version of the software can use this download to upgrade their current installation to the latest version.

For now, the new software can be downloaded only from this blog post. Click on the following link: Download version 4.1

Extract the the files in the downloaded zip file into the folder where you originally installed TradeRadar and you should be ready to go.

Full install on the way --

The full install of version 4.1 should be available later this week in the Download section of this site. I'll provide a post on this blog to let you know when it's ready.

Feedback welcome --

Questions, comments and any other feedback is welcome. Leave a comment or email me directly.



Sunday, June 7, 2009

Weekly Review - building toward better things?

Today I spent a big chunk of time building a door frame for a storeroom in my attic. This is part of the never-ending renovation of my 100 year old house. Besides the fact that it has kept me from focusing on my usual Weekly Review post, it got me thinking about the economy.

I started things today by ripping out the stuff that was falling apart. Then I putt up a rough opening with 2X4's and proceeded to the finish work. There was cutting and trimming, adding shims to make sure everything was plumb. Yes, some things needed redoing. By the end of the day, the door itself still wasn't hung but most of the heavy lifting was done.

So how does a door frame equate to the economy? Look at the chart below. Plenty of missteps and redos. But little by little, something decent is taking shape in the stock market. Likewise in the economy, the things that were falling apart are little by little being replaced. With the help of the Fed and the Treasury, some 2x4's have been put in place to reinforce the sagging banks and financial system. The government is now applying the shims as new approaches to regulations are debated to straighten out a financial system that had gotten out of kilter. In any case, the foundations for a resurgence in the economy are slowly rising. The bullishness in the chart below, therefore, is seemingly justified.


The chart above shows our analysis of the universe of stocks we evaluate, roughly 7200 of them. We can see from these moving average statistics that after a very constructive phase we have been going through a period of indecision. Though the charts of the major averages are looking like there was a bit of a bullish breakout this week, our statistics show we are still somewhat range bound.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. Looking at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis reveals a market that is in neutral but with a tendency toward improvement. While the number of stocks in strong up-trends is not extreme, the number of stocks in strong down-trends is very low.


So the economy and the stock market do seem to be building toward better things. The Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a much smaller number of layoffs than expected. Construction spending surprised to upside. It's true, the unemployment rate is hitting multi-decade highs and many retailers are still limping along but everything can't be fixed at once.

Just like my old house, there is still a good bit of construction necessary to restore this economy to its former glory days. But we're making progress.



Performance Review - TradeRadar 'Strong BUY' Swing Trading Signals on a streak

It's been a few weeks since I introduced the Strong BUY signal to the TradeRadar Swing Signals list. What kind of performance are we seeing?

I am pleased to say that the results have been pretty good. As you can see in the following chart, there isn't a loser among them.

SymbolNameDate of SignalOriginal PriceMost Recent PriceGain/Loss
ARSTArc Sight, Inc.5/16/2009$14.85$18.1922.0%
KIRKKirkland's, Inc.5/16/2009$6.19$9.5654.0%
DBRNThe Dress Barn, Inc.5/16/2009$14.23$16.5817.0%
ONCYOncolytics Biotech, Inc.5/19/2009$1.65$1.682.0%
HOOKCraft Brewers Alliance, Inc5/23/2009$1.96$2.076.0%
KKDKRISPY KREME DOUGHNUTS5/26/2009$3.45$3.635.0%
PENNPenn National Gaming, Inc.5/26/2009$30.39$32.106.0%
AIGAMERICAN INT'L GROUP, INC6/4/2009$1.64$1.714.0%
MSSRMcCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants, Inc.6/4/2009$6.50$6.754.0%
NBXHMorgan Stanley6/4/2009$5.50$5.500.0%

During this time when these signals were being generated, we have sort of had the wind at our backs. The market has been going through a bit of a trading range, which is good for this kind of signal, and early during this last week we had a breakout above the range. These factors helped the gains in the list above.

What is striking, however, is the consistent quality of these signals. This is a small sample, but it does seem that the methodology we have for generating Strong BUY Swing Trading Signals does a good job of finding stocks that are generally in an upward trend that are about to make a move from the vicinity of their lower Bollinger Band to their upper Bollinger Band.

Keep in mind that we announce a new batch of Swing Signals every Tuesday and Thursday evenings and on Saturday mornings. Not every batch finds a Strong BUY signal so when we do find one, it is significant.

Keep an eye on the Swing Signal page at TradeRadar Alert HQ. Let's see if we can keep this streak going!



Saturday, June 6, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 5, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:

  • Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside
  • Trend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trends
  • Cash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greater
  • Bollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger Band
  • Swing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
  • Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend.
This week's results --

On Monday, stocks broke out of the last month's trading range and then proceeded to go nowhere for the rest of the week. It was still enough for major averages to register strong gains. We can see the effects of this breakout as our list of Trend Leaders grew correspondingly.

Here is the detailed breakdown for Alert HQ for this weekend:
  • Based on daily data, we have 4 Alert HQ BUY signals and 9 SELL signals
  • Based on weekly data, we have 47 Alert HQ BUY signals and 5 SELL signals
  • Based on daily data, we have 890 Trend Leaders, a nice increase from last weekend. 125 new stocks joined the list since Thursday and 221 fell off the list since Thursday.
  • Based on daily data, we have 184 Bollinger Band Breakouts but we also have 545 Breakouts based on weekly data.
  • We have 827 Cash Flow Kings
  • Based on daily data we have 62 Swing Signals of which 46 are BUY signals and 16 are SELL signals. No Strong BUY or Strong SELL signals today
  • Finally, we have Trend Busters with 12 signals based on daily data and 28 based on weekly data
Visit Alert HQ and download your free lists of stock alerts. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.

If you're a momentum trader, the TrendLeaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you have no faith in technical analysis, the Cash Flow Kings may be just what you are looking for. If you do favor technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas. See them all at Alert HQ.

Remember, we also provide our latest updated Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters on Tuesday and Thursday nights.



Thursday, June 4, 2009

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 4, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 39 Swing Signals -- 28 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs
  • 988 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 135 new stocks that made today's list and 238 that fell off Tuesday's list.
  • 12 Trend Busters of which 7 are BUY signals and 5 are SELL signals
At last, after a dry spell of about one week, we have a few Strong BUYs in our list of Swing Signals. At least one will surprise you. In any case, these picks seem to perform quite well (as along the market isn't plunging).

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Why is Data Domain such a hot acquisition candidate?

It almost looks like a bidding war for Data Domain (DDUP). First a bid from NetApp (NTAP), then a bid from EMC and now a revised bid from NetApp.

First, what does Data Domain do?

Here is summary of the profile from Yahoo Finance: "Data Domain, Inc. provides deduplication storage appliances for disk-based backup, archiving, and network-based disaster recovery. The company's appliances reduce the storage of redundant copies of data within enterprises. It also offers Replicator software, which allows enterprises to utilize wide area network vaulting for offsite disaster protection and recovery; and a capacity-optimized Virtual Tape Library software option that emulates multiple tape libraries over a fiber channel interface, as well as integrates with an enterprise's existing backup infrastructure."

Translation: Data Domain's hardware and software, by reducing duplication and redundancy in a company's data and documents, lessens storage requirements and thereby cuts costs. The company also provides software that facilitates different ways of backing up important data and documents.

Why buy this company?

So now that we know what Data Domain does, why is it suddenly such attractive buyout candidate?

First, Data Domain is a natural fit for both would be acquirers. For a change, it would appear there is truly a synergistic benefit that would result from putting Data Domain together with either NetApp or EMC.

NetApp and EMC are essentially head to head competitors in the enterprise storage sector. In other words, both companies provide hardware and software that organizes massive numbers of disk drives into some kind of structured system that enterprises can use to stash their ever growing amounts of data. Both companies work to extend that basic business concept to include different kinds of data backup strategies, data security and data management.

The functionality that Data Domain brings to the table, therefore, is a perfect extension of what NetApp and EMC are currently doing. Data Domain fills a hole in the product suites of both NetApp and EMC, neither of whom are recognized as leaders in data deduplication and reducing redundancy.

Is Data Domain a bargain?

I took a quick look at some of the financial data at Yahoo Finance and the quick answer is a resounding "No!" Now that the stock price has soared as a result of the buyout offers, Data Domain has a trailing PE over 100 and a forward PE over 50. PEG is 2.7 and price to sales is over 6. Data Domain would never be confused with a value stock at its current price.

On the other hand, the firm is cash flow positive and profitable. Revenue from support and services has been steadily increasing though revenue from product sales has taken a hit in this down economy. There is virtually no debt. Financially, the company is in decent shape with a reasonably strong balance sheet.

Given that Data Domain is no bargain, it is clear that both NetApp and EMC are looking for the acquisition to result in a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts. NetApp and EMC have much larger market caps than Data Domain and a deeper penetration into the enterprise. The acquirers clearly expect that they can more efficiently and profitably sell Data Domain products and services as part of their pitch to CIOs than Data Domain can on their own. Furthermore, there is no doubt that redundancies and overlaps will result in costs being taken out of Data Domain, no doubt partly through reduction of headcount.

Conclusion --

So many mergers seem ill considered and turn out to be mistakes but this one actually looks like a great fit. The eventual winner of this acquisition contest should be able to benefit as long as they don't overpay. That, unfortunately, is a real possibility if this bidding war continues.

Disclosure: no positions



Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Sector ETFs showing the most strength - signs this rally has legs?

If you're wondering how broad based the current rally is, this post will highlight some of the sectors that are showing the most price momentum and strength in their up-trends.

We evaluate a selection of what I call "Benchmark ETFs" as proxies for various market sectors. The following list is based on daily data. All these ETFs are showing strong bullish readings for Aroon and DMI which we use to determine how strong a stock or ETF's trend is. In addition, these ETFs are all above their 20-day moving average.


Benchmark ETFBenchmark Index
EEMMSCI Emerging Markets Index
FXIFTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index
IGWDow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index
IJHS&P MidCap 400 Index
IWFRussell 1000® Growth Index
IWORussell 2000® Growth Index
IWPRussell Mid-Cap® Growth Index
IYCDow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index
IYMDow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index
IYWDow Jones U.S. Technology Index
IYZDow Jones U.S. Select Telecommunications Index
QQQQNASDAQ-100® Index

Many of these are no surprise if you are an enthusiastic follower of stock market news. Much has been made of how Emerging Markets have been on a tear and how Materials have been surging. You probably also know that Technology and the NASDAQ led the market up over these last few months since the March lows.

What is somewhat surprising, however, is that the Financial sector is not found on this list. Financials are in the news constantly and many have been recovering from deep declines. Recently, however, the sector has been lagging and the Aroon trend indicator has been weakening.

Another interesting aspect of this list is that there is a pretty fair weighting toward small cap and mid cap and a heavy weighting toward growth. It is often said that these kinds of stocks tend to be the leaders when coming out of bear markets.

So it is clear that we have a wide selection of sectors showing strength at this time. Tech, small cap and mid cap with a smattering of cyclical and large cap. It's a broad based variety that would seem to indicate we have left the bear market lows behind. With leadership from this group of benchmarks it isn't hard to feel bullish. Now if the economy just cooperates...



Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 2, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

  • 20 Swing Signals -- 10 BUY signals and 10 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
  • 1091 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. This is double the number we registered over the weekend - what a difference a day makes! We have 569 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 46 that fell off the previous list.
  • 13 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals
Using our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.



Monday, June 1, 2009

LCD glass - a leading indicator?

It's often said that semiconductors are a leading indicator for the tech sector. What about LCD glass?

Corning (GLW) has announced that it raised its expectations for second-quarter sequential volume growth. CEO Wendell Weeks was extremely positive in his statement:

"Our recent checks indicate the LCD supply chain is in full recovery mode. The LCD supply chain continues to replenish; glass supply and demand is very tight right now, much stronger than we anticipated. This has led to an imbalance in glass supply and demand that will likely last through the end of the third quarter. As a result, we are raising our second-quarter glass volume expectations."
Is this company specific or is it a harbinger of improvement in the tech sector in general?

Consider the list of products that use LCD glass: flat panel TV sets, PC monitors, laptops and now high-end mobile devices. Corning emphasized that much of the improvement in demand was due to TVs; nevertheless, it's not unreasonable to look at this situation and see the beginning of improvement in a large swath of the consumer electronics sector.

As investors hunt for a bottom in this recession, these kinds of little victories will eventually add up to a recovery.

Disclosure: no positions

You may also enjoy this general article on stock market leading indicators: Using Stock Market Internals to Predict Market Movement.




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Disclaimer: This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.




 
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