Skip to main content

Despite drop in semiconductors, tech rally still has legs

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) plunged today. Is this the end for the tech rally?

In the chart below, I compared the Merrill Lynch HOLDRs that are focused on technology. The ETFs and their associated sectors are as follows:

SMH - semiconductors
SWH - software
IAH - hardware
BDH - networking
HHH - Internet
IIH - Internet infrastructure

Tech HOLDRs compared
As can be seen, the Software HOLDR (SMH, black line) is indeed breaking down. Notice, however, that the other ETFs are moving up or at least holding their own. Interestingly, the Internet HOLDR (HHH, light blue line) does show weakness despite all the hoopla over Google and Yahoo's good earnings reports recently. Still, for the most part, the other tech sectors are still showing growth.

Looking closer at the semiconductor sector, we have had some earnings reports that were good, some that were lackluster. Similarly, forward guidance has varied from company to company. Nevertheless, market research companies like iSuppli are predicting 11% growth in the sector in 2008. It could be that investors are over-reacting to a limited set of disappointing results.

In looking at the charts of individual tech sector ETFs, it appears there is still strength in the majority of them. Based on this, I think it is safe to say that the overall technology sector will not follow the semiconductor sector down. Tech will remain an area of strength.

Disclosure: author owns no shares in SMH, SWH, IAH, BDH, HHH, IIH

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Running TradeRadar on Windows 7 and Windows 8

Development of the original TradeRadar Stock Inspector software was begun back in the days before Windows 7 and Windows 8 were available.

As these newer versions of Windows have become more popular, we have heard from some users that they are having problems installing and running TradeRadar on their newer PCs.

The good news is that TradeRadar will work just fine on Windows 7 and Windows 8. All you have to do is adjust the Windows Compatibility Settings to ensure TradeRadar runs as intended.

It is recommended that you can apply Compatibility Settings when running the initial installation; however, it is also possible to apply Compatibility Settings after the program has been installed.

Prior to installation
After downloading the install program, go to the folder where you have stored the TradeRadarStkInsp_7_Setup.exe or TradeRadarStkInsp_7_PRO_Setup.exe executable. Right-click on the executable file and select Properties. Click the Compatibility tab. Adjust the Compatibility mode to …

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:


Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:


Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.

N…

Alert HQ has moved!

End of an era!

This site was started way back in 2006/2007 to showcase my blog posts and the Alert HQ buy signals and sell signals. Alert HQ grew to include other kinds of stock alerts including Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders, Cash Flow Kings and more.

In the meantime, I built a sister site, TradingStockAlerts.com and I started using some of the same Alert HQ content over there. As a result, I am discontinuing the Alert HQ data here at Trade-Radar.com

The good news, however, is that all the Alert HQ signals and stock screens are still completely free. In addition, the pages have been enhanced so that you can hover over a stock symbol and a small chart will pop up so you can get a quick look at the stock's recent price action. If you click on a symbol it will take you to a page with plenty of financial and technical analysis information (still free!) as well as a larger chart that you can play with in terms of adding or deleting indicators, moving averages, etc.

Click …