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Showing posts from 2011

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:


Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:


Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.

N…

SPY - breakout confirmed?

Since August, the market has been in a funk, plunging at the end of July and then range-bound, more or less moving sideways for two months. The top of the range is notated in the chart below by the horizontal magenta line in the daily chart of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. On Friday, however, we finally got a decisive move out of the range and above the magenta line.


The question on everyone's minds is: does this breakout have staying power?

Activity in Europe is still the wildcard and is pretty much unpredictable so in this post we'll just stick to the the technicals as we see them.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data for the following charts is generated from our weekly Alert HQ process. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below. In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count th…

5 profitable tech stocks with 50-DMA turning bullish

Stocks went on another wild on Thursday (window-dressing?) and in an interesting turn of events the Dow finished up over 1% while the NASDAQ 100 finished down 1%. This was surprising to me since tech has been trading in a much more positive way than most other sectors or indexes.

This could mean there is a buying opportunity coming up for the following stocks. These five companies are all profitable and their 50-day exponential moving averages are in the process of turning up. (Note that we found these stocks using a freely available preset for the Premium Stock Screener at TradingStockAlerts.com)

Here are the five stocks, all of which were trading above their 50-day EMA as of the close on Thursday. I have included a quick take on their financial status, current valuation and technical outlook.
CommVault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) -- This company has solid financials but is somewhat over-priced. Nevertheless, the stock is in an up-trend. It could be a buy on a pullback if you are comfortable…

SPY -- at best still bottoming, worse to come?

Here we go again.

At the beginning of August SPY crossed below its 200-day moving average and made brutal downward move. Since that time, the ETF and many other indices and their associated ETFs have been tracing out what is know as a "bear flag" on their daily charts. This week SPY and the rest broke below the bottom line of the flag pattern. Here's what it looks like:


The blue lines show the flag. The black oval shows where we ended the week. Despite a rally on Friday, SPY is clearly on bearish side of this pattern. Furthermore, a sizable gap was opened up on the way down. In addition, the bottom line of the flag pattern, formerly support, now becomes resistance. The expectation now that the breakdown has occurred is that SPY could fall another 10 to 15 points.

With SPY about to test the low for 2011, we should see what some of our Trade-Radar market measures are telling us.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember …

Standex International -- this rally only the beginning?

As I was poking through the Alert HQ results of the last few days, one company’s name seemed to keep popping up: Standex International Corporation (SXI).

Standex showed up on the following screens/reports at TradingStockAlerts.com:
Reversal Alerts based on Daily DataValue and Growth ReportTrend Buster ReportReasonable Value Trend Buster Report Furthermore, if you enter the symbol into the Stock Search function on TradingStockAlerts.com, you will see that Standex comes up as a BUY there, too

Background --

Standex International Corporation is a small-cap diversified manufacturing company with the following five divisions:
Food Service Equipment Group - manufactures commercial food service equipment for restaurants, convenience stores, quick-service restaurants, supermarkets, drug stores, hotels, casinos, and corporate and school cafeterias, as well as serves health science and medical markets. Air Distribution Products Group - manufactures metal ducts and fittings for residential heating, …

6 value stocks breaking above their trend lines

Here is a quick list of value stocks that are breaking out in a bullish direction over their downward sloping trend lines.

SymbolNameSectorIndustryPE RatioPrice
to SalesPrice
to BookPEG RatioEnterprise
Value to EBITDACPXComplete Production Services, Inc.EnergyOilfield
Services/
Equipment13.921.192.460.665.24FLLFull House Resorts, Inc.Consumer ServicesServices-Misc. Amusement & Recreation8.521.131.260.433.07HELEHelen of Troy LimitedConsumer DurablesHome
Furnishings9.471.041.30.848.38HRSHarris CorporationCapital GoodsIndustrial
Machinery/ Components8.770.841.990.875.18SUTRSutor Technology Group LimitedCapital GoodsSteel/Iron Ore3.810.120.270.224.73TSTCTelestone Technologies Corp.Consumer DurablesTele-
communications Equipment2.330.530.590.091.41
This list is derived from the Free Stock Screener over at sister site TradingStockAlerts.com. It was set up by simply choosing the Value preset and then selecting a Bullish Reversal in the Simple Trend Reversal drop-down.

All are profitable. …

Despite beating expectations, July Durable Goods report has me worried

The Durable Goods advanced report for July was released on Wednesday and the headline number surprised to the upside. This helped the market tack on some further gains beyond Tuesday's big advance.

Besides its effect on a day's action in the stock market, the Durable Goods report is useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing. As of this report, the situation is mixed. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. In July, the two measures were not consistent and this is worrisome. Let's see how it played out in July.

Shipments --

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how July shipments looked for the overall tech sector:

Results were actually quite good and, to make …

What theme is emerging from this market carnage?

With the market practically crashing again I wondered if there were any industries hiding stocks with strength.

Poking around in the Industry Inspector at our sister site TradingStockAlerts.com actually did yield a little theme in an unexpected area.

I sorted the list of industries according to percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average. At the top of the list was the Consumer Services/Automotive Aftermarket industry which contains only one stock: Monro Muffler and Brake (MNRO).

Re-sorting to look for industries with stocks showing bullish MACD and up near the top was the Consumer Services/Motor Vehicles industry. Among the three stocks in this segment is Midas, Inc. (MDS), otherwise known as Midas Muffler.

These stocks seem barely affected by the recent downturn but the simple reason is strong earnings. Both companies rolled up increases in sequential revenues and earnings. On a year-over-year basis, Midas disappointed a bit on revenue but shined on earnings while Monro d…

Stocks dig a deeper hole -- when do we come up for air?

After a week of epic volatility, stocks ended the week on a positive note; nevertheless, it wasn't enough to turn a loss into a gain. The S&P 500, for example, still ended the week down 1.63%.

Last week I reviewed the moving average and trend analysis charts and declared that we were at bearish extremes not seen since the March 2009 market lows. Let's see what they say this week.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data for the following charts is generated from our weekly Alert HQ process. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below.

In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count the number of moving average crossovers, as well. We then plot the results against a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).


The number of stocks above their 50-day EMA (yellow line) has improved so lit…

Hello down there! Is there a bottom in sight yet?

Last week I looked at the Trending Analysis chart (I have the updated version below) and said there was further room for stocks to fall before the next rally could begin. Even though I expected a further pullback, I was wholly unprepared for what actually happened: the market fell with a vengeance.

Looking at the S&P 500, for example, it took out the trendline extending all the way back to March of 2009, blew threw the lower support at the bottom of a 6-month consolidation pattern (those who are more pessimistic are saying this was the neckline of a head-and-shoulders), and to put the icing on the cake, dropped decisively below the 200-day moving average. Many of the other indices look pretty much the same.

The moving average and trending analysis charts I often present on the weekend certainly reflect the damage. Let's see what they say this week.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data fo…

Range-bound in an ugly market

Was it just a couple of weeks ago that the market was shooting upward and all was right with the world? Putting it mildly, it appears we've done a bit of an about-face.

It's regrettable but all those reversals and swing signals we identified recently that were screaming BUY! are now looking a little worse for wear. Before tossing in the towel, though, let's take a look at where we stand from the perspective of the overall stock market's performance. Our moving average and trending analysis charts should provide some useful insights.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data for the following charts is generated from our weekly Alert HQ process. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below.

In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count the number of moving average crossovers, as…

Durable Goods for June -- tech keeps muddling along

The Durable Goods advanced report for June was just released and we can now see how tech in aggregate is performing. I have been of the opinion that tech is under-valued and this could help determine whether the sector deserves better or whether it tech stocks should remain in the doghouse.

I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders.

Shipments --

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how June shipments looked for the overall tech sector:

This next chart shows just the sub-category of Computers and related products.


This chart is for the Information Technology Industry. Unfortunately, the numbers for this sector are not broken out in the advance report but I thought it might be interesti…

7 Profitable Tech Stocks with 50-DMA turning Bullish

Lately tech has been coming out of the doldrums. That's good news for tech investors and the market as a whole since tech is often the sector that leads the market out of a downturn.

Here is a list of seven tech stocks that are both profitable and whose 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is just turning bullish. Note that this is the result of Tuesday's action (7/26).

SymbolNameIndustryPE RatioPrice to SalesPEG RatioCash Flow YieldEnterprise Value to EBITDABRCMBroadcom CorporationSemiconductors17.612.690.816.08%15.33ININInteractive Intelligence Group, Inc.Computer Software: Prepackaged Software43.363.771.372.79%19.08KFRCKforce, Inc.Professional Services26.30.570.52(3.57%)11.17SFNSFN Group, IncProfessional Services36.880.341.042.72%10.16SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorporationSemiconductors95.082.150.66N/A12.03SSYSStratasys, Inc.Computer peripheral equipment56.66.381.8-0.11%25.46YNDXYandex N.V.Computer Software: Programming, Data Processing76.1723.171.834.99%45.94
As someo…

A fix for the Trade-Radar software is available now -- Download it right away!

You may know that Trade-Radar Stock Inspector uses financial data from Yahoo! Well, just this past weekend Yahoo! started having an intermittent problem transmitting some of the data that our software uses. You've probably noticed the effect: Stock Inspector just quits, blows up, goes away...

Download the fix right away!

We've built in a way to get around this problem and the new version of Trade-Radar Stock Inspector is now working as it should. Plus we've fixed a couple of minor bugs while we were at it.

Just go to this special download page and get the newest version now.

Some readers who are signed up for the Trade-Radar Software Users Group will be receiving an email with this same information. This update is so important I wanted to cover all possible channels to get the word out.

As always, this update is free for all users.

Trade-Radar is back on the air

Most of the issues we encountered over the weekend have been corrected now. Trade-Radar.com and TradingStockAlerts.com are both reflecting the latest data.

There are still some anomalies here and there that you will see in some of the reports and alert pages. In particular, Exchange, Market Cap, PEG, Price-to-Sales and sometimes even Price seem to be the fields that are randomly messed up.

The database in many cases was been corrected after the HTML pages were generated and deployed to the web sites. The results in the TradingStockAlerts.com Free Screener and Premium Screener should be much more correct.

Once again, I apologize for the delays and any inconvenience this may have caused. I will be working diligently to prevent a recurrence.

Trade-Radar weekly data running late

We're running late at Trade-Radar.com and at TradingStockAlerts.com, too.

Usually we have our weekend screens and alerts available by sometime on Saturday morning. This weekend, however, I was out of town and just came back to find that the software hit some kind of glitch and aborted. The end result is that the web sites have not yet been updated with the latest info.

The process is running now and should be complete sometime this evening (East coast time).

I apologize for the delay and any inconvenience this may have caused.

Stay tuned. We should be back on the air soon.

From the doghouse to under-the-radar market leaders

In poking around through the various stock screens on my site I came across the following interesting situation. Let me take you through my journey...

I started out looking at the Sector and Style Scorecard here at Trade-Radar. I noticed there were two Consumer related ETFs in the top eight: the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Index Fund (IYC) and the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index Fund (IYK). Interesting factoid but so far no clear investment ideas.

I popped over to the Industry Inspector at sister site TradingStockAlerts.com and set up the screener to look for industries where more than 50% of the stocks in an industry were above their 50-day EMAs and had bullish MACD. This resulted in a modest sized list of industries. Toward the top were some of the industries that have been quite popular lately including Precious Metals and Pharmaceuticals. Down the list a ways, in the Consumer Services sector (and with a less than descriptive title) was the "Other Consumer Serv…

15 more value stocks breaking out

Here's another batch of interesting looking stocks that we found using the Premium Stock Screener at our sister site TradingStockAlerts.com

This is one of my favorite screens because it tends to highlight solid profitable companies that appear to be starting sustainable bullish moves. This screen starts out by looking for those stocks that I refer to as "Reasonable Value." In other words, they are profitable, PE is not too high, Price-to-Sales ratio is low and Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is also fairly low. We are also looking for low Debt-to-Equity ratios.

To these criteria we add a set of technical analysis indicators. The stocks need to be above their 50-day exponential moving average. They also need to have Trend Performance Scores that are only somewhat bullish but have just recently registered a strong improvement in Trend Performance Score. This combination of technical criteria tends to find those stocks that are just beginning to move so you will not find y…

Weekly Market Update -- where did all the bears go?

Two months of pessimism almost completely erased in one week!

That's what a melt-up rally can do. When I wrote my last Weekly Market Update a couple of weeks ago I said that hints of a bottom were accumulating. I anticipated a basing process before a significant rally would take place. I guess I was too pessimistic myself. Let's see where we are now...

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data for the following charts is generated from our weekly Alert HQ process. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below.

In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count the number of moving average crossovers, as well. We then plot the results against a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).


What is so surprising here is that we now see roughly two thirds of all stocks are now above their 50-day…

20 growth stocks with improving moving averages

The market is firming these days and what was out of favor is now meeting demand.

Growth stocks had certainly been weak while investors fled to defensive sectors. That is beginning to change now. Using the Premium Stock Screener at out sister site TradingStockAlerts.com, we have identified a list of growth stocks whose 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has, within the last few days, started to turn up in a bullish direction.

SymbolNameSectorIndustryACNAccenture plc.MiscellaneousBusiness ServicesAGPAMERIGROUP CorporationHealth CareHospital And Medical Service PlansALVAutoliv, Inc.Capital GoodsAuto Parts:O.E.M.BKIBuckeye Technologies, Inc.Basic IndustriesPaperCPSIComputer Programs and Systems, Inc.TechnologyEDP ServicesCYOUChangyou.com LimitedTechnologyComputer Software: Prepackaged SoftwareDCIDonaldson Company, Inc.Capital GoodsPollution Control EquipmentENTREntropic Communications, Inc.TechnologySemiconductorsFNFabrinetPublic UtilitiesTelecommunications EquipmentIPGPIPG Photonics…

Seven Profitable, Dividend-paying Bollinger Band Breakouts

We've been presenting our Bollinger Band Breakouts at Alert HQ for quite a while now. What's nice is being able to use the stock screeners at our sister site TradingStockAlerts.com to refine the selection.

Accordingly, I started with bullish Bollinger Band Breakouts (those whose price exceeded the upper Bollinger Band) and selected those stocks that were profitable and offered a dividend. The following seven stocks popped out.

SymbolNameLast PriceSectorIndustryAVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation$13.38 Basic IndustriesAgricultural ChemicalsFULH. B. Fuller Company$23.64 Basic IndustriesHome FurnishingsMLHRHerman Miller, Inc.$26.75 Consumer DurablesOffice Equipment/Supplies/ServicesNYMTNew York Mortgage Trust, Inc.$7.82 Consumer ServicesReal Estate Investment TrustsRBNRobbins & Myers, Inc.$49.03 Capital GoodsFluid ControlsWACWalter Investment Management Corp.$19.95 Consumer ServicesReal Estate Investment TrustsWSCIWSI Industries Inc.$5.70 TechnologyIndustrial Machinery/Components

Hints of a bottom continue to accumulate

This is another installment of our weekly market update where we look at the state of the market and try to divine where stocks might be headed.

Last week we opined that the technicals of the market suggested a bottom was imminent as we were getting very close to the extremes that in past downturns signaled a rally. The market cooperated somewhat by breaking its six week losing streak. Read on to see how this call is working out...

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about, the data for the following charts is generated from our weeklyAlert HQprocess. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below.

In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count the number of moving average crossovers, as well. We then plot the results against a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).




With SPY just barely turning in a gain th…

A turn in the bond market? Six reasons to avoid TLT

Bonds got clobbered today, going in the opposite direction as stocks.

I've been watching the iShares Barclay's 20+ Year Bond Fund (TLT) for a while and wondering if the rally was getting tired. Today's action suggests TLT is really pooped and that perhaps the rally is over for now. Let's go through the chart:


Here are six reasons that suggest the rally may have run its course:
Big gap down today on decent though not extraordinary volumeOver the last couple of weeks, Slow Stochastics have been trending down while TLT was trending up. This implies TLT was running out of steam. Slow Stochastics have broken down in a bearish manner now with the value dropping below 50.MACD has also been trending down slightly while TLT was trending up. MACD has now failed to climb above its signal line (the red line) for a couple of weeks and, after today, is noticeably pointed downward.Wilder's DMI just showed a crossover where the -DM (bearish Directional Movement) indicator moved abo…

A sinking market has to hit bottom sometime -- will it be soon?

It's been roughly six months since I've done one of these weekly market analysis posts but with stocks grinding lower for six straight weeks I thought this would be a good time to pull out the charts and see where we stand.

The view from Alert HQ --

For those readers who are new to TradeRadar or who don't remember what this is all about (and I don't blame you if you've forgotten), the data for the following charts is generated from our weekly Alert HQ process. We scan roughly 6200 stocks and ETFs each weekend and gather the statistics presented below.

In this first chart below we count the number of stocks above various exponential moving averages and count the number of moving average crossovers, as well. We then plot the results against a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).


This chart makes it clear we are reaching the extremes of last May and June. One could say that our "summer swoon" is right on schedule. Notice, …