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Showing posts from May, 2010

Trending and Trading Markets - which is which and how do you deal with them?

We constantly talk about trends here at Trade Radar and now we have an excellent post from our affiliate friends at Market Club that digs into the subject: Trending And Trading Markets – Finding The Best Indicators For Each.

The post discusses the difference between trending markets and trading markets and looks at the different strategies that are required for each type of market. Different indicators may come into play and assume greater importance depending on which kind of market we are currently experiencing.

Investors should remember that individual stocks may be trending while the overall market is in a trading range and vice versa. It can get complicated but Trade-Radar can help.

Primary among the features offered in the Trade-Radar Stock Inspector software is automated trend identification. The software will take a chart and display the classic trend line that touches either the highs or the lows. In addition, the software plots the regression line that shows the slope of pri…

Weekend Winners and Losers for May 28, 2010

This post is a combination of our occasional Weekly Review and the Weekend Winners and Losers available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Reversals based on daily data, we have 20 Alert HQ BUY signals and 9 SELL signals
Reversals based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signal and 331 SELL signals
We have 24 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 170 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 605 Cash Flow Kings76 Swing Signals -- every one is a BUY signal18 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 4 stocks that are new additions to the list and 3 that fell off the previous list.28 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 21 are BUY signals. We also have 183 Trend Busters based on weekly data (all are SELL signals!)
179 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We see 66 downside gaps and 113 ups…

Does the market deserve to be this over-sold? Value analysis might surprise you

Stocks just finished May with a fairly awful performance. As I looked through some of the data generated by my Alert HQ process I saw some of the indicators had actually gotten worse than during the period around March 2009 and others were getting close.

I had to ask myself the question that is the title of this post: Does the market deserve to be this over-sold?

Stocks can continue in an over-sold state until fear dissipates, values become compelling and buyers are motivated to return to the market. Are we at that point yet?

Fear is difficult to quantify but we can put a number on value. Common measures of value are Price-Earnings ratios (PE) and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA ratios. EBITDA is earnings before interest expenses, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Many investors prefer to look at the EV-to-EBITDA ratio because it avoids some of the games that can be played when calculating the earnings component that goes into the PE ratio.

PE Ratio analysis --

The following table shows…

Durable Goods Report -- No disappointment for me

Well, I'm a few days late in providing my analysis of the most recent Durable Goods report but better late than never.

The headline number for April was strong (New Orders up 2.9%) but many analysts pointed out that ex-transportation, (transportation comprised mostly of contributions from Boeing) the overall number for new orders decreased.

Be that as it may, I mostly focus on tech and in that sector the news was much better as the following charts will show.

Today I will only be presenting the two charts that show Shipments and New Orders for the Computers and Electronic Products category which is a summary or aggregate of Computers and Related Products, Communications Equipment and Semiconductors. The folks who compile the numbers have decided that Semiconductors will no longer be tracked separately but will be included in the aggregate Computers and Related Products numbers.

Shipments --

So let's start with a little history. Shipments are a backward looking measure as they r…

Is the turn-around here? -- Alert HQ signals for Thursday, May 27, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
345 Swing Signals -- 344 BUY signals and 1 SELL signal.
17 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 9 stocks that are new additions to the list and 2 that fell off the previous list.
44 Trend Busters, of which 35 are BUY signals and 9 are SELL signals.187 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 70 are bearish gaps and 117 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks popped today and the Alert HQ signals have started to really turn around.

The Swing Signals are usually the most responsive indicators and today's list of 345 signals, all but one BUY signals, shows the early signs of  a turnaround. Similarly, the Gap Signals list shows upside gaps strongly outnumbering downside gaps. These are fi…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, May 25, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
39 Swing Signals -- 38 BUY signals and 1 SELL signal.
10 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 4 stocks that are new additions to the list and 2 that fell off the previous list.
125 Trend Busters, all of which are SELL signals.159 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 125 are bearish gaps and 34 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks struggled back from deep losses today but it wasn't enough to shift our Alert HQ signals to full-fledged bullishness.

Though the Swing Signals list is bursting with BUY signals, the Trend Leaders list has fallen to an all-time low. The Trend Busters list has swelled but every single stock on the list is generating a SELL signal. The Gap Analysis has…

So who do we listen to? Management or the stock market pundits?

The first quarter earnings season is pretty much wrapped up and investors, with their short memories, consider it ancient history.

With markets in turmoil, the question is whether we are seeing a correction or something worse. As stocks struggle with their 200-day moving averages, it is clear that we don't quite have an answer yet. Certainly the blogosphere is lit up with bearish declarations while bulls, less exuberant than before, keep a worried eye on the charts.

Looking for guidance --

One clue left over from earnings season may help us get closer to determining the future state of the stock market. Whereas earnings are historical numbers, out of date the minute they are released, company guidance is forward looking and provides the best assessment management has of the coming months.

I have been collecting earnings, revenue and guidance data for this earnings season and have amassed a information on over 2000 companies. The following table provides the detail on guidance broke…

Trend leader or value stock? Family Dollar continues its climb

I have had a recurring set of posts where I look at stocks that are strong enough to be on the Trade-Radar Trend Leaders list yet remain reasonably priced.

After running this weekend's Alert HQ process there was only one stock that met this criteria: Family Dollar Stores (FDO).

Background --

The profile from Yahoo! Finance is concise and descriptive enough: "Family Dollar Stores, Inc. operates a chain of self-service retail discount stores for low to lower-middle income consumers in the United States. The company offers consumables, including household chemicals, paper products, candy, snacks and other food, health and beauty aids, hardware and automotive supplies, pet food, and supplies; and home products, which comprise domestics, housewares, giftware, and home decor. It also provides apparel and accessories, including men's and women's clothing, boys' and girls' clothing, infants' clothing, shoes, and fashion accessories; and seasonal and electronics, su…

36 Reasons to download the new Trade-Radar software

At long last the newest version of the Trade-Radar Stock Inspector software is available for download.

For those of you who have not tried the earlier versions of the software, it might be worth it to review the basics before we get into the new features. Basically, the primary function of the Trade-Radar system is to identify reversals in price movements. These reversals are translated into BUY signals or SELL signals. The trick, of course, is to determine if the reversal is significant enough to enter a trade with confidence. We've added a ton of new indicators to help you make that decision.

Furthermore, the Trade-Radar software makes it easy for you to assess the valuation and financial strength of any U.S. stock in which you might be interested. If you believe that risk is lower when you invest in stocks that are not over-valued, then these indicators are just what you've been looking for.

What's new in version 5.2 --
Now that we have the basics out of the way, we can…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, May 18, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
20 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 7 SELL signals.
54 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 24 stocks that are new additions to the list and 29 that fell off the previous list.
44 Trend Busters of which 3 are BUY signals and 41 are SELL signals.145 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 92 are bearish gaps and 53 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

A decent day turned into a rout and our Alert HQ signals reflect the damage.

The Trend Busters list shows that more stocks continue to break down below their previously bullish trend lines. We are seeing more downside gaps than upside gaps. The Trend Leaders list can't seem to increase from all time low levels.

The only of bullishnes…

There's always a stock rising somewhere - USANA an unlikely candidate

Every week or so I profile a few stocks that fall into the category of "reasonable value" and are showing strong charts. Today I'll submit just one stock, mostly because the recent downturn has played havoc with so many companies charts.

The stock in question is USANA Health Sciences (USNA). According to Yahoo!, here is what the company does: "USANA Health Sciences, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of nutritional and personal care products in North America and the Asia Pacific. The company offers two product lines, USANA Nutritionals and Sense. The USANA Nutritionals product line consists of essentials, which include vitamins and mineral supplements. The Sense product line includes personal care products that support healthy skin and hair."

So what we have is a very consumer-driven health care company. Not particularly unique in itself but the company seems to be doing very well. Even with the recent run-up in its stock, it doesn't se…

Weekend Winners and Losers for May 14, 2010

This post is a combination of our Weekly Review (seldom seems to arrive on a weekly basis lately) and the Weekend Winners and Losers available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Reversals based on daily data, we have 11 Alert HQ BUY signals and 121 SELL signals
Reversals based on weekly data, we have 1 Alert HQ BUY signal and 140 SELL signals
We have 37 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 212 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 599 Cash Flow Kings14 Swing Signals -- 9 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals59 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 11 stocks that are new additions to the list and 17 that fell off the previous list.30 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 3 are BUY signals. We also have 50 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
283 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We see 105 downside ga…

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, May 13, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
74 Swing Signals -- 74 BUY signals and absolutely no SELL Signals! 65 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 43 stocks that are new additions to the list and 9 that fell off the previous list.
30 Trend Busters of which 22 are BUY signals and 8 are SELL signals.277 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 68 are bearish gaps and 209 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Despite the late day sell-off, Alert HQ signals look pretty darn bullish. Though numbers are within more normal ranges, it is significant that for the second time ever we see all BUY signals and no SELL signals on the Swing Trading Signals list. BUY signals outnumber SELL signals on the Trend Busters and Gap Analysis lists.…

Tug of war at Alert HQ - signals for Tuesday, May 11, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

256 Swing Signals -- 254 BUY signals, no SELL signals and 2 Strong BUYs. A record!
31 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 14 stocks that are new additions to the list and 14 that fell off the previous list.
31 Trend Busters of which 12 are BUY signals and 19 are SELL signals.282 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 88 are bearish gaps and 194 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

This post evokes a tug of war because of the divergent results we're getting today at Alert HQ.

I've never had a list of Swing Trading Signals that was so large and had absolutely no SELL signals. This should be a hugely bullish sign but Alert HQ is also handing us some warning signals. The Trend Busters lis…

Market still in no man's land -- or why I haven't bought any double short ETFs

Markets had pulled back to the point where they were flirting with a "correction" - a decline of 10% or more. The NASDAQ had already achieved that dubious distinction.

I have written a good number of posts defending the use of ProShares leveraged ETFs including the inverse or short variety. And I put my money where my mouth is - I almost always have one or two ProShares ETFs in my portfolio.  This time, however, is different.

As stocks dropped, the double long Ultra ProShares ETFs in my portfolio hit stops and were sold. But I could not immediately switch over to the double short ETFs. The reason why can be summed up in one word: trend.

Look as this weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100. I have drawn two trend lines on it and both lines reflect the bullish trend that has been in place for the last year.


The green trend line starts at the March 2009 low and touches the early February 2010 low. According to this trend line, the NAZ has broken to the downside but has nearly recovered…

Eight stocks bucking the down-trend --- some even have good financials!

Instead of doing our usual quick post announcing that the weekend's free stock signals are now available at Alert HQ, I'd like to just focus on a few stocks that are standing out from the crowd.

Since almost all the signals at Alert HQ are SELL signals, why dwell on the negative? Instead, I'd like to present eight stocks that are still looking good despite the current pull-back.

The following stocks are the only ones that were added to the Trend Leaders list this week. Usually, there are over a hundred stocks that come onto the list in any given week. This time - just eight. What this means is that these eight stocks are exhibiting strong up-trends as measured by Aroon, MACD and DMI analysis.

SymbolNamePriceDPSDr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc$35.72IDSAIndustrial Services of America, Inc.$19.62CPEXCPEX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.$25.25CBANColony Bankcorp, Inc.$8.62CLWClearwater Paper Corporation$60.01FFFDNorth Central Bancshares, Inc.$19.27SRLSSeraCare Life Sciences Inc$5.09AB…

Who are the Earnings Season Leaders?

While the market gyrates, earnings season proceeds apace. This post looks at what I think of as the Earnings Season Leaders. These are the stocks that have shown  all of the following three characteristics:
Year-over-year Revenues up 20% or moreActual Earnings beat First Call estimates by 20% or moreActual Earnings up 20% or more year-over-yearFrom a fundamental point of view, these are the stocks at the top of the heap. Given how crazy the market has been lately, there's no guarantee that these stocks are outperforming in terms of stock price.

The last time I sliced and diced earnings season data, I had some requests to list the companies within the sectors that were outperforming. So today I provide a detailed list of the companies and what sector and industry they are in.

SectorIndustrySymbolNameBasic IndustriesAgricultural ChemicalsSMGScotts Miracle-Gro Company (The)Basic IndustriesForest ProductsWYWeyerhaeuser CompanyBasic IndustriesHome FurnishingsFULH. B. Full…