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Showing posts from April, 2010

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, April 29, 2010 - surprising resurgence in stocks. Can this be real?

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
54 Swing Signals -- 46 BUY signals and 7 SELL Signals and one Strong BUY.
351 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 107 stocks that are new additions to the list and 130 that fell off the previous list.
10 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.188 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 80 are bearish gaps and 108 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

On Tuesday it looked like stocks were heading for a downturn. Subsequent news related to sovereign debt in Europe seemed to confirm the bearish stance. Mr. Market, however, had other things in mind.

Here we are two days later and the market is undergoing a resurgence. Most of Tuesday's losses have been regained. Our …

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, April 27, 2010 -- another tipping point?

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
30 Swing Signals -- 9 BUY signals and 21 SELL signals.
374 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 62 stocks that are new additions to the list and 272 that fell off the previous list.
23 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 17 are SELL signals.175 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 83 are bearish gaps and 92 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

You know the market has taken a hit when 8 out of 9 Swing Signal BUY signals are inverse ETFs. The bearish tone is reinforced by our Trend Busters list where SELL signals are in the majority. The number of stocks on the Trend Leaders list has decreased significantly. Only the Gap Analysis list shows some small signs of bullishness.

Since the A…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for April 23, 2010

This is our usual quick post announcing that the weekend's free stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 9 Alert HQ BUY signals and 20 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signal and 5 SELL signals
We have 214 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 585 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 593 Cash Flow Kings25 Swing Signals -- 22 BUY signals and 3 SELL Signals584 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 142 stocks that are new additions to the list and 47 that fell off the previous list.23 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 19 are BUY signals. We also have 38 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
146 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We see 60 downside gaps and 86 upside gaps based on daily data. We also have…

First earnings scorecard for Q1 - tech is off to rip roaring start

Earnings season for the first quarter of 2010 is now well under way. As I have been doing for the last few quarters, I'll try to get a sense of how tech stocks are doing and how they compare to the rest of the market.

This first chart shows the stats for all the stocks that have reported thus far.

Total counts for all stocks reporting CategoriesTotal CountEarnings Beats335Y-o-Y Earnings Increases321Y-o-Y Revenue Increases322Upside Guidance54Total Providing Guidance195Total Number of Stocks Reporting480
Let's start with some percentages. First of all, looking at the whole population, we are getting a pretty high percentage of earnings beats, roughly 70%. Earnings and Revenue increases on a year-over-year basis are just under that 70% level. When it comes to providing forward guidance, the percentage is not as strong. Less that 28% of those companies that have offered guidance have provided upside guidance.

Now that we've set the baseline by looking at the total stock market…

Arris Group advances but value proposition is still solid

After running Tuesday's Alert HQ process I checked my "Reasonable Value" screen against the day's Trend Leaders. For those of you who have not see one of my previous "Reasonable Value" posts, here are the criteria for the screen:
PE between 0 and 20PEG between 0 and 1.3Price-to-Sales less than 2Debt-to-Equity less than 1As Trend Leaders, each of these stocks is showing good up-trend performance according to MACD, Wilder's DMI and Aroon analysis. Today's list consists of the following five stocks:

AIPCAmerican Italian Pasta CompanyARRSArris Group IncLBLABARGE, INC.LHLABORATORY CORP. OF AMER.CLWCLEARWATER PAPER CORPORATION
Since I like to highlight tech stocks when I can, today I'll take a closer look at Arris Group.

Starting with the chart, you can see why Arris is a Trend Leader:


Wilder's DMI and Aroon are clearly bullish and MACD looks like it's moving in a bullish direction again. Te 50-day moving average headed upward and is close to a …

Take my wafers, please...

Semiconductor stocks have been flying lately, apparently reinforced by Intel's excellent earnings report.

Reading the Intel conference call transcript, however, there were some notes of caution sounded by CEO Paul Otellini. He was positive on the remainder of the year but he was careful not to get carried away in his enthusiasm.

Now comes another sign that maybe investors should ratchet up that sense of caution. Reading the Digitimes.com web site, there was a small article that raises the hair on the back of my neck. Here's what they said:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), alarmed by its rising inventory level, has demanded IC design houses take delivery of their ordered wafer starts before placing new orders, according to industry sources.The company is seemingly worried by the possibility that their clients might have been overbooking. The article went on to say that TSMC's inventory of analog ICs is currently 50% higher than its safe level, while invento…

Weekend Winners and Losers for April 16, 2010

Take a few days off and something weird always happens. Goldman is accused of fraud (I'm shocked, shocked...) and the market tanks. In any case, I've been out of pocket since Thursday but I've had some help getting the Alert HQ signals out. What follows is a combination of our Weekly Review and the Weekend Winners and Losers where we announce the weekend's free stock signals available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 3 Alert HQ BUY signals and 39 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 4 Alert HQ BUY signal and 5 SELL signals
We have 67 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 341 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 625 Cash Flow Kings33 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 20 SELL Signals573 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 48 stocks that are new additions to the list and 166 that fell off the previous list.12 Tr…

Bless you, Intel...

On Tuesday Intel (INTC) reported strong earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2010, with the company calling it the "best first quarter ever." As I suggested in yesterday's post, tech stocks and semiconductor stocks in particular should see a nice bump. The ProShares Ultra Semiconductor ETF (USD), which we own as part of our speculative portfolio, saw an increase of 7.73%. Not bad for one day. I can only say: bless you, Intel, for pushing stocks to new highs.

Notes from the conference call --

Looking at net income, Intel recorded a sweet $2.4 billion for the first quarter, an increase of 288% compared to the first quarter a year ago. The net income beat estimates of $2.13 billion from analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Diluted earnings per share were $0.43, beating analyst estimates of $0.38. This 13% beat is certainly meaningful.
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The company recorded revenue of $10.3 billion for the first quarter, an increase of 44% compared to last year's first quarter. The nu…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, April 13, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
28 Swing Signals -- 17 BUY signals and 11 SELL signals.
529 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 155 stocks that are new additions to the list and 80 that fell off the previous list.
26 Trend Busters of which 7 are BUY signals and 19 are SELL signals.125 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 26 are bearish gaps and 99 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks continued their winning ways today. The Dow stayed above 11,000 as major indexes again fought their way from a morning deficit and closed with modest gains. Here are some numbers to put things in perspective: looking at the Vanguard Total Market Vipers (VTI), the ETF is up almost 15% from the low set on February 5 but up only 5% from…

Signs of a top? -- reverse split for 9 ProShares ETFs

ProShares announced that it will execute reverse share splits on nine ProShares ETFs. Here are the details:

TickerFundSplit RatioPriceDUGUltraShort Oil & Gas1:5$11.22EEVUltraShort MCSI Emerging Markets1:5$9.37FXPUltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 251:5$7.15GLLUltraShort Gold1:5$9.02SMNUltraShort Basic Materials1:5$6.56SRSUltraShort Real Estate1:5$5.62UREUltra Real Estate1:5$8.66UYGUltra Financials1:10$7.36ZSLUltraShort Silver1:10$3.77
The splits take effect after the close on April 14. Here's the reason for doing the reverse splits according to ProShares: For funds with lower nominal prices, bid-ask spreads represent a higher percentage of the transaction price than for higher-priced funds, increasing both costs and volatility — even when the spread is tight. ProShares believes the reverse splits will adjust the share prices to a more cost-efficient level for the Funds' shareholders and that commissions charged by brokers who assess their clients on a per-share basis may be small…

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, April 8, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
17 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 4 SELL Signals.
397 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 123 stocks that are new additions to the list and 216 that fell off the previous list.
24 Trend Busters of which 13 are BUY signals and 11 are SELL signals.152 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 54 are bearish gaps and 98 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks keep scratching out modest gains. Today was more of the same but our Alert HQ signals, while still reasonably bullish, started showing a bit of weakness today.

Jobs data was less than thrilling today while retail sales were better than expected. The push and pull had stocks starting in the red and ending in the green. That was enough to e…

Commodity markets not crazy enough for you? Just wait...

Equity markets have felt the impact of the quants and their algorithms for some years now. Commodity markets, on the other hand, have been a bit more old fashioned. Investors should be aware, however, that situation is changing.

Automated trading strategies are expanding into commodities as firms look to apply these techniques to other asset classes. And it's happening at a rapid pace. It is thought that as much as 35 to 50% of volume in the most active front-end oil contracts is generated by algorithmic trading.

There are differences in automated commodities trading when compared with the way it's done in equity markets. Here are the three strategies most commonly in use in commodities markets.

The first is called ETRM which stands for electronic trading and risk management. In this scenario, which comprises the majority of automated trading in commodities, there is actually a lot of human input driving the trading with assistance from fairly standard electronic trading syste…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, April 6, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
17 Swing Signals -- 16 BUY signals and one Strong BUY. Wow, not one SELL signal!
490 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 253 stocks that are new additions to the list and 67 that fell off the previous list.
29 Trend Busters of which 18 are BUY signals and 11 are SELL signals.159 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 61 are bearish gaps and 98 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Reviewing our signals, things are looking pretty bullish today. For the first time ever, we have a Swing Signals list with no SELL signals at all. The Trend Leaders list has expanded from having 300+ stocks and ETFs on it to 490 today. The Trend Busters list has more BUY signals than SELL signals and there are more upsid…

Anaren - nice upside reversal proves slow and steady wins the race

It's not often that we see a tech stock showing up in one of our reasonable value screens. But here's one for you: Anaren, Inc. (ANEN)

The reasonable value screen looks for the following:
PE between 0 and 20PEG between 0 and 1.3Price-to-Sales less than 2Debt-to-Equity less than 1Anaren fits the bill in all these criteria plus it has an Enterprise Value/EBITDA ratio that is less than 7, further confirming the company's status as a reasonable value stock. Indeed, the PEG is less than 1 and Price-to-Sales is only 1.26.

So with the company's value characteristics established, we can look at the technical analysis situation. The chart below is a screen shot from the Trade-Radar software.



The top chart shows the stock breaking out above its downward sloping trendline. It also shows the how the stock has turned up based on regression analysis and has moved up sufficiently to to register a Signal Strength of of 98%. Furthermore, we see the stock above its 20-DMA and its 50-DMA …

Weekend Winners and Losers for April 1, 2010

What follows is a combination of our Weekly Review and the Weekend Winners and Losers where we announce the weekend's free stock signals available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signals and 45 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signal and 6 SELL signals
We have 96 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 214 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 694 Cash Flow Kings36 Swing Signals -- 30 BUY signals and 6 SELL Signals304 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 93 stocks that are new additions to the list and 179 that fell off the previous list.22 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 14 are BUY signals. We also have 32 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
146 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We see 63 downside gaps and 83 upside gaps based on da…

More jobs for the U.S. - mirror image of outsourcing proposed

Today jobs were front and center in the news with the Non Farm Payroll report showing jobs being added for the first time in many, many months. Commentary was generally positive but everyone took the opportunity to point out that still more job growth is needed.

I just came across an interesting article on the Tech News World website. It describes what seems to be more or less the "mirror image" of outsourcing.

The "Startup Visa" --

Here's what is being proposed:
"The idea is to issue a work visa to foreign entrepreneurs who start a company in the U.S., provided that they raise at least US$250,000 from qualified U.S. investors. Then, within two years, the startup must create five new jobs, raise at least $1 million, or generate at least $1 million in revenue. If one of those goals is achieved, the founder gets a green card. If not, the entrepreneur must leave the country."The idea is credited to Paul Graham who runs the venture firm Y Combinator.It has…

Alert HQ and MarketClub - an excellent fit

For those of you who visit this blog or my Alert HQ pages of stock picks and signals, today I have some news you might find particularly useful.

Are there times when you would like to review some of the TradeRadar stock picks in another system? You know, just to see if the two systems agree? Looking for that extra confidence factor? Well, here's your opportunity.

I have an affiliate relationship with the folks at MarketClub and today I've been given some insider news...they're opening up a 2 week trial availiable for only a few days! What is normally priced at $449.00, you can have access to for nothing! This will get you access to their videos, their charting tools and Trade Triangle signal technology.

Get instant access here: MarketClub 2 week free trial

You know I've been a fan of Adam Hewison and the MarketClub team for a while now and I have presented his videos on a number of occasions. Now is your chance to gain access to the powerful tools, unlimited email and …