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Showing posts from January, 2010

Fannie and Freddie man up, push worst loans back to banks

I don't typically comment on financials or real estate that much these days but I this weekend I saw an article in the Wall Street Journal and it made me smile.

Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have been buying and guaranteeing mortgages in greater and greater numbers during the course of the real estate implosion. Their basic operation is to securitize mortgage loans originated by private lenders in the primary mortgage market into mortgage-backed securities, which are bought and sold in the secondary mortgage market. They have been nearly like a lender of last resort as banks have worked overtime to get mortgages off their balance sheets.

As you may know, when the real estate bubble burst and homeowners began to default, Fannie and Freddie increasingly came under pressure and needed a bailout to the tune of about $100 billion. These government sponsored enterprises are now essentially owned by taxpayers.

As a card-carrying taxpayer, then, I was pleased to read the articl…

Stock market outlook - always darkest before the dawn

Outside of the stock market, it was actually a pretty decent week. Here are some of the better things that happened:
Ben Bernanke was re-appointed and, contrary perhaps to how many bloggers felt, investors were relieved4th quarter GDP did indeed come in very strong, at 5.7%Chicago PMI beat expectations and that was notable because the employment component finally showed outright growth instead of slowing declineContinued good earnings reports from bellwethers like Amazon and MicrosoftConsumer sentiment increased according to the University of Michigan surveyThe Fed kept interest rates steady and language in their policy statement indicated they would continue to do so for some time to come.The Durable Goods report for December showed gains in new orders, rising for the first time since SeptemberWeekly jobless claims declinedNaturally, not everything was coming up roses. Here are some things that disappointed:
Housing still stinks as reports on new home sales and existing home sales cont…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for January 29, 2010

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 3 Alert HQ BUY signals and 496 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 4 Alert HQ BUY signal and 148 SELL signals
We have 130 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 159 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 818 Cash Flow Kings47 Swing Signals -- 39 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals142 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 31 stocks that are new additions to the list and 26 that fell off the previous list.236 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 31 are BUY signals. We also have 476 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
155 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 51 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

Well, today it's losers as far as the eye can see.

M…

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 28, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
59 Swing Signals -- 53 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals plus one Strong BUY.
137 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 55 stocks that are new additions to the list and 71 that fell off the previous list.
82 Trend Busters of which 8 are BUY signals and 74 are SELL signals.155 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 72 are bearish gaps and 83 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Well, it looked like stocks were consolidating but major averages took another step down today. Accordingly, Alert HQ is swimming in SELL signals and the Trend Leaders list shrinks even further.

Once again, as we saw on Tuesday, the Swing Trading Signals are showing a real divergence from the rest of our signals. The Swing Signals is a go…

Glimmers of hope at last? -- Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
64 Swing Signals -- 49 BUY signals and 14 SELL Signals plus 1 Strong BUY.
153 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 35 stocks that are new additions to the list and 176 that fell off the previous list.
158 Trend Busters of which 27 are BUY signals and 101 are SELL signals.134 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 69 are bearish gaps and 65 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Major averages tried to close positive today but gave up in the last half hour. That makes four losses out of the last five days. For a week now Alert HQ has been generating tons of SELL signals and the Trend Leaders list has been steadily shrinking

Today, the Alert HQ signals have registered plenty more bearishness. The Trend Busters l…

Tech sector earnings scorecard - Time to get bullish on tech?

Stocks have been struggling lately, to put it mildly, but earnings season has been pretty decent. Stock prices in the tech sector has been especially weak but I don't believe tech deserves the cold shoulder. Here's why.

I've been keeping track of some of the tech bellwethers as well as some of the smaller players.All in all, the results of this earnings season have been pretty positive.

The following table is our tech scorecard. Results include a good selection of tech stocks that have reported this month right up through Monday, Jan 25. 40 out of 47 companies on our list have beat earnings expectations thus far in this earnings season. That's 85%, which to mind is pretty good.

There has been some grumbling among investors that topline growth has been lacking. This scorecard shows that 31 out of 47 companies have shown year-over-year growth in revenues. Not spectacular but not bad; it's about two thirds of companies reporting thus far and that's a decent percen…

This market will recover sooner rather than later - but in the meantime, run for cover

As I mentioned in yesterday's Alert HQ post, SELL signals dominate after a week in which stocks slid sharply. Here are the reasons most commonly given for the decline in stock prices:
China's central bank is restricting lending at some (though not all) banks. President Obama has proposed outlawing banks that take deposits from engaging in proprietary trading  Some members of Congress have announced that they have withdrawn support for re-appointing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
Are these good reasons for the markets to tank? I don't think so.

This leads me to think that the market is falling just because it has gone too long without a correction. Which implies that this rough patch will run its course and the up-trend will continue.

Here's why I think the market will recover sooner rather than later:
China's central bank is restricting lending at some (though not all) banks. -- This is a good thing! Don't we want China to prevent excess liquidity from contributing to …

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for January 22, 2010

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ. This is the first one for 2010.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 6 Alert HQ BUY signals and 237 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signal and 35 SELL signals
We have 201 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 120 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 796 Cash Flow Kings43 Swing Signals -- 9 BUY signals and 34 SELL Signals292 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 10 stocks that are new additions to the list and 80 that fell off the previous list.130 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 28 are BUY signals. We also have 92 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
141 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 58 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

Well, the emphasis this weekend is on SE…

Are we sufficiently oversold yet? - Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 21, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
39 Swing Signals -- 10 BUY signals and 29 SELL Signals.
362 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 74 stocks that are new additions to the list and 251 that fell off the previous list.
97 Trend Busters of which 25 are BUY signals and 72 are SELL signals.162 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 76 are bearish gaps and 86 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Ouch!

What else can you say about the last two days? Stocks down more than 1% for two days in row. And certain sectors down far more, emerging markets and tech, for example.

Our Alert HQ signals are as bearish as they have been in months. The Trend Leaders list is significantly whittled down. SELL signals are outnumbering BUY signals two or three to one. …

Ten stocks with strong charts and reasonable valuations

I ran a simple screen against my database today and came up with ten companies. The screen looks for stocks with a reasonable valuation but also charts that are strongly trending up. Here are the criteria:
PE between 0 and 20
PEG between 0 and 1.3Price-to-Sales less than 2Debt-to-Equity less than 1New addition to the most recent Trend Leaders list - this requires that Aroon, MACD and Wilder's DMI are all bullishHere is the list of ten stocks that made the grade:

Symbol
Name
CHOP
China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Limited
HSIC
Henry Schein, Inc.
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
WBD
WIMM-BILL-DANN FOODS OJSC ADS'S (EACH REP ONE SHARE OF C/S)
HQS
HQ SUSTAINABLE MARITIME INDUSTRIES, INC.
CAB
CABELA'S INCORPORATED
ACN
ACCENTURE LTD.
AFG
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP
JOSB
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc.
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.

With so much attention focused on healthcare stocks lately, it's worth taking a deeper look at one of the stock picks on the list: Henry Schein, Inc.

Henry Schien is a di…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Jan 19, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
34 Swing Signals -- 21 BUY signals and 13 SELL Signals.
541 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 92 stocks that are new additions to the list and 200 that fell off the previous list.
19 Trend Busters of which 13 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals.191 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 86 are bearish gaps and 105 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks rebounded today after Friday's sell-off and some new highs were attained, just barely. Essentially though, despite the gyrations, major averages have been more or less in a range for the last week or so.

What is encouraging, however, is seeing a mild resurgence of bullishness in our Alert HQ signals. The number of signals is not high but at leas…

Double Dip, New Normal? - Jeremy Siegel doesn't buy it

It seems gloom sells better than optimism so the financial blogosphere is rampant with stories predicting a double dip recession. In addition, it seems the phrase of the year is "new normal" which has been attributed to PIMCO's Bill Gross. The phrase is a snappy description of his prediction for below-par market returns for years to come.

I recently read an interview with Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel and he has quite a different opinion. You may remember him as the author of  "Stocks for the Long Run" and numerous other books. He is also interviewed and quoted liberally in many financial publications including the Wall Street Journal and at sites like the TheStreet.com

Here are Mr. Siegel's reasons for optimism:

PE Ratios --

Mr. Siegel points out that consensus forecasts are around $70 a share on the S&P 500. He thinks it might even be higher. The long-run average PE is roughly 15. Fifteen times 70 is 1,050. Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1136. Tha…

After a mixed week, caution may be the best short-term strategy

Earnings season kicked off this week and investors were in a sour mood.

Alcoa (AA) started things off with a miss and that set an ugly tone. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat earnings expectations but came in light on revenues, increased loan loss reserves and posted declining results in some business areas that had previously been on fire. Investors took the opportunity to bail on the stock and this put pressure on the rest of the financial sector. If JPMorgan Chase is considered the best run bank in the U.S., what does that say about the others, like Citi?

Intel (INTC) reported on Thursday after the close and they couldn't have done better, beating expectations on the top line and the bottom line and providing positive forward guidance. Investors, however, would have none of it and the stock sold off hard as did the rest of the semiconductor sector.

After Friday's doom and gloom, the TradeRadar weekend Alert HQ signals took a decidedly bearish tone. Looking at the indicators we trac…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for January 15, 2010

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ. This is the first one for 2010.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 9 Alert HQ BUY signals and 96 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 3 Alert HQ BUY signal and 8 SELL signals
We have 83 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 213 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 776 Cash Flow Kings49 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 36 SELL Signals513 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 68 stocks that are new additions to the list and 137 that fell off the previous list.32 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 19 are BUY signals. We also have 48 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
198 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 64 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

After struggling to a new high on Monday, …

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 14, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
30 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 15 SELL Signals.
582 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 142 stocks that are new additions to the list and 179 that fell off the previous list.
41 Trend Busters of which 35 are BUY signals and 6 are SELL signals.208 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 84 are bearish gaps and 124 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Economic reports were not particularly good today but stocks managed to eke out a modest advance anyway. The jobless numbers and the retail sales figures released today were both worse than expected though not bad enough to cause a rout in the markets. Major averages started the day in negative territory and gradually worked their way to fractional gains…

Alert HQ signals for Tuesday, Jan 12, 2010

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
66 Swing Signals -- 11 BUY signals and 55 SELL Signals.
619 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 149 stocks that are new additions to the list and 200 that fell off the previous list.
29 Trend Busters of which 22 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals.211 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 82 are bearish gaps and 129 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Pretty inauspicious start to earnings season today!

Alcoa missed Wall Street expectations when they reported last night and that was enough to start a steady erosion in stocks today. And after weeks of consistent bullishness, our Alert HQ signals have been turned on their heads.

What we are seeing is SELL signals outnumbering BUY signals on three out of f…

Iron Mountain breaking out - should you invest?

If you are a regular user of stock charts, sometimes you see a textbook pattern develop. That seems to be what is happening with Iron Mountain (IRM).

The stock showed up on this weekend's Trend Busters list (http://trade-radar.com/AlertHQ/trendbusters.html) as a BUY signal. In other words, it looks the stock has been in a down-trend and has suddenly turned up. Here is the chart:



Iron Mountain has been in a prolonged down-trend since the end of August (see the blue downward sloping line). It is amazing how perfectly the stock tracked that blue trend line all the way down. This makes the recent upside breakout that much more impressive.

Other aspects of technical analysis suggest the move may have legs. MACD has decisively turned up. The stock closed above its 50-day moving average today, a day when tech stocks were under pressure. The Aroon UP indicator has shot from nearly zero up to 100.

I've also showed the Slow Stochastics which shot up from over-sold to over-bought in the…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for January 8, 2010

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ. This is the first one for 2010.

Today we have the following stock picks and signals:
Based on daily data, we have 37 Alert HQ BUY signals and 32 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signal and 5 SELL signals
We have 191 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 337 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 774 Cash Flow Kings23 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 6 SELL Signals plus one Strong BUY and one Strong SELL.672 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 104 stocks that are new additions to the list and 63 that fell off the previous list.37 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 34 are BUY signals. We also have 38 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
186 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 57 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

Alert HQ signals for Thursday, Jan 7, 2010

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
25 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals.
631 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 191 stocks that are new additions to the list and 145 that fell off the previous list.
43 Trend Busters of which 36 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals.187 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 65 are bearish gaps and 122 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Another day of markets muddling through. The NASDAQ came up with another minor loss while the Dow and the S&P 500 managed minor gains. With this kind of inconclusive behavior I'm  surprised to see such a bullish tone to our Alert HQ signals today.

Though our Swing Trading Signals are again noncommittal, nearly evenly split between BUY signals an…

SEMI offers wildly optimistic forecast for semi equipment sector -- best opportunity may lie in one sub-sector

SEMI, global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chains for the microelectronic, display and photovoltaic industries, recently released their forecast for semiconductor equipment sales for 2010 and 2011. The results are optimistic, indeed.

Here is the money quote:
The forecast indicates that, following a 31 percent decline in 2008, the equipment sector will post another significant decline of approximately 46 percent in 2009. SEMI expects the market to grow approximately 53 percent in 2010 to US$24.5 billion and to further increase about 28 percent in 2011 to US$31.2 billion.
Here is a chart that plots these growth rates with 2007 considered to be 100%



Despite the torrid growth rates forecast by SEMI, you can see that even by 2011, semiconductor equipment sales will not be up to the level of 2007. Talk about an industry downturn!

Another interesting aspect of the forecast is the following table that breaks things down by equipment segment.

Forecast by Equipment Segment


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