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Showing posts from November, 2009

Q3-2009 Growth Report - Part 2. Who are the Growth Elite?

Last week I released the first part of this series entitled "Q3 Growth Report - Part 1". In that post I presented some of the data compiled by our Alert HQ processes. The focus was on Revenue and earnings per share. I contrasted 2009 Q1 and Q2 results with our recent Q3 results. In this post, I'll do the same with dividends.

Increasing Dividends --

For today's purposes, I'll highlight the companies that managed to increase dividends this quarter.

The following table provides the comparison among the three quarters:


Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009
In S&P 500
140
112
104
All stocks
829
778
826

The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that increased their dividend and have made it onto Part 2 of this quarter’s report has decreased yet again though only by a little.

More encouraging, the number of stocks that raised their dividend is up by more than 6%. Note that we are looking at a universe of roughly 7000 stocks.

Repeat winners --

There were 516 stocks that were listed in both the Q…

What would you like the TradeRadar software to do?

I would like to extend my thanks to the many hundreds of people who have downloaded the TradeRadar software during the last few months.

Thus far, the software has been available from our Download page free of charge.

I am in the process now of creating a shareware version of the software. There will be enhanced capabilities for both technical and fundamental analysis.

Before releasing the new version, I would like to hear from you, the users.

What features are you most interested in seeing in the new version?

Please leave a comment or email me with your suggestions.

Serious break on the charts? How worried should you be?

Stocks started another week with a very strong Monday performance. Friday's shortened session, however,  was long enough to more than erase the earlier gains of many stocks and ETFs.

Talk of "sovereign default" related to the Dubai World request for a debt "standstill" overcame most other news that had transpired during the course of the week. As a result, charts suddenly appear to have broken down.

Below is the chart of the S&P 500. That big red bar representing Friday's action is clearly visible and it certainly looks like a dangerous downdraft, signalling more pain ahead.



But is this really a serious break? Was Friday's volume so low just because it was an abbreviated session? Or wasn't there much conviction to the sell-off? What do the Alert HQ statistics suggest?

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:



This first chart presents our moving average analysis. The chart shows that roug…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 27, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 5 Alert HQ BUY signals and 20 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signals and 32 SELL signals
We have 54 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 134 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 860 Cash Flow Kings25 Swing Signals -- 14 BUY signals and 10 SELL Signals and 1 Strong SELL.236 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 6 stocks that are new additions to the list and 82 that fell off the previous list.28 Trend Busters based on daily data. We also have 222 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
203 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 65 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

There wasn't much to be thankful for in the stock market this week, though maybe we should be thankful…

OK, Gartner, where's the growth in PC sales?

The Advance Report for Durable Goods for October was released on Wednesday; Bloomberg characterized it as "tepid". That was a fair statement. As usual, we'll zero in on the Tech sector and see how the hardware vendors performed.

Shipments --

Typically, investors pay the most attention to shipments and new orders. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment.




It's a relief to see shipments increasing after two months of declines. Not only that, there seems to be confirmation that the lows are now behind us.

This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category.



Ouch! Shipments for Computers and related products dropped to a new low. Gartner and iSuppli have not only been forecasting increases in PC sales they have been ratcheting u…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gaps for Nov 24, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
21 Swing Signals -- 13 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals.
270 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 142 stocks that are new additions to the list and 78 that fell off the previous list.
27 Trend Busters of which 23 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.194 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 119 are bearish gaps and 75 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Over the weekend I declared that caution was in order. Monday stocks rallied but Tuesday they fell back. In terms of the short-term action, neither new highs nor new lows were set. Markets continue to move sideways without any strong indication as to which direction is next.

Looking at the Trend Leaders list, though, the current state of the market is on di…

Q3-2009 Growth Report - Part 1

The third quarter earnings season is about over. It's time to take stock (no pun intended, well, maybe it was).

After each quarter's earnings season, I try to pull together what I call the Growth Report. Part 1 compiles the list of stocks that have shown a year-over-year increase in both revenue and earnings AND a sequential quarter-over-quarter increase in both revenue and earnings. Given the perception that the economic downturn is easing, it will be interesting to see how many companies have been able to to pull off this trick.

The following table presents a comparison of the last three quarters:


Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009
In S&P 500
27
41
39
All stocks
218
312
281

The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that qualified as growth leaders and made it onto the Q2 Growth Report grew by 50% over the first quarter. Comparisons, however, are becoming more difficult. In Q3, we are actually seeing a small decrease is the number of growth leaders as compared to Q2.

Repeat winners --

There are 3…

Rising tide fails to lift all boats - what happens now when the tide goes out?

Though the primary trend of the market continues to be up, the last few days had an ugly feel to them. Stocks encountered significant selling pressure on Thursday and on Friday the dip buyers were noticeably absent.

So have stocks topped out again? If so, is it a pause in the uptrend or something more?

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:



This first chart tracks our moving average analysis. The count of stocks above their 50-DMA (the yellow line), hit its most recent low a month ago at the end of October. Since then this count has rebounded. The last two days of this week, despite the sell-off in stocks, hasn't had much of an effect. Yet...

So far about 50% of the roughly 7200 stocks and ETFs that we evaluate each weekend are still above their 50-DMA. In what may portend further declines to come, we see the magenta line which tracks the number of stocks whose 20-DMA is above their 50-DMA continues to weaken. This shows…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 20, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 6 Alert HQ BUY signals and 6 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 2 Alert HQ BUY signals and 58 SELL signals
We have 60 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 192 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 860 Cash Flow Kings23 Swing Signals -- 21 BUY signals and 2 SELL Signals.206 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 45 stocks that are new additions to the list and 120 that fell off the previous list.22 Trend Busters based on daily data. Today, every single one is a BUY signal! We also have 154 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
221 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 66 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks started the week with a nice rally but quickly ran out of steam. By Friday, …

Another top? - Alert HQ signals for Nov 19, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
31 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 16 SELL Signals.
283 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 53 stocks that are new additions to the list and 181 that fell off the previous list.
17 Trend Busters of which 14 are BUY signals and 3 are SELL signals.218 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 118 are bearish gaps and 100 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

No denying it was an ugly market today. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 1.56%. Investors in the semiconductor sector (like myself) had it even worse as the sector collected a downgrade and plunged more than 3% with a big gap at the open.

Needless to say, our signals are rolling over. I had expected this cycle to continue a bit furth…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gaps for Nov 17, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
22 Swing Signals -- 19 BUY signals and 3 SELL Signals.
411 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 191 stocks that are new additions to the list and 62 that fell off the previous list.
56 Trend Busters of which 52 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.225 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 108 are bearish gaps and 117 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks struggled today but managed to end with minor gains. Still, it was enough to allow the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 to hit new 52-week highs.

Are stocks getting over-extended here? Our signals are beginning to indicate that we're getting closer to that state but that we're not yet there. Every time the Trend Leaders list gets up i…

Brazil - in a bubble or on a roll?

A couple of years ago, no one recognized the real estate bubble even though it was under everyone's nose. Now, analysts and bloggers are seeing bubbles everywhere they look. One of them, they say is in Brazil whose Bovespa stock market index has doubled in the last 12 months.

Does the bubble accusation hold water? I don't think so and here are 7 reasons why Brazil is by no means a bubble economy:
Exports have held up over the past year thanks to demand from China for Brazil's soya exports and iron ore. This was helped by the the Brazilian government's drive to improve trade links with Asia and Africa. Export diversification, spurred by a more active trade policy and increased focus on "south-south" trade under current president Lula, helped mitigate the decline in demand from OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countriesA "sensible" economic framework has been in place since the 1990's. This has included inflation target…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 13, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 26 Alert HQ BUY signals and 12 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have no Alert HQ BUY signals and 42 SELL signals
We have 66 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 214 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 856 Cash Flow Kings27 Swing Signals -- 25 BUY signals and 2 SELL Signals.282 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 36 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 37 that fell off the previous list.64 Trend Busters based on daily data. Today, every single one is a BUY signal! We also have 87 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
250 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 69 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

All the major averages turned in gains this week. That doesn't hide the f…

Tech could pull stocks out of their slump - Alert HQ signals for Nov 12, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
30 Swing Signals -- 23 BUY signals and 7 SELL Signals.
283 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 114 stocks that are new additions to the list and 40 that fell off the previous list.
35 Trend Busters of which 31 are BUY signals and 4 are SELL signals.255 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 120 are bearish gaps and 135 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

Markets were weak today but our signals are holding their own.  BUY signals still well outnumber SELL signals and the Trend Leaders list has continued to expand.

On the other hand, the rally has progressed to the point where we have fewer candidates that are making it as Swing Trading BUY signals.This often happens when the majority of stocks have been in…

H-P buys 3Com -- so what?

Much is being made of the of the news that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has made a bid to acquire 3Com (COMS). This move is being characterized as a challenge to Cisco Systems (CSCO).

So how much of a challenge to Cisco is this?

A comparison of revenue is revealing.

The following table comes from H-P's 10-Q from September 2009 and shows the most recent quarter:



2009

2008

% Decrease



In millions

Net revenue

$
193

$
271


(28.8
)%
(Loss) earnings from operations

$
(10
)
$
26


(138.5
)%
(Loss) earnings from operations as a % of net revenue


(5.2
)%

9.6
%



The table shows the revenue and earnings from the Corporate Investments segment whose revenues are derived primarily from sales of networking infrastructure products sold under the ProCurve Networking brand.

The point of this is that, in a good year, the networking segment brings in revenue of maybe a billion dollars per year.

For the last few years, 3Com revenue has been somewhat flat in the neigh…

Yes, this rally's still intact - Alert HQ signals for Nov 10, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:

176 Swing Signals -- 171 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals.
209 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 127 stocks that are new additions to the list and 17 that fell off the previous list.
89 Trend Busters of which 84 are BUY signals and 5 are SELL signals.251 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 127 are bearish gaps and 124 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

A week ago the bears began throwing in the towel. The ensuing rally has been sharp and confirmed our bullish interpretation of the Alert HQ signals from the previous Tuesday. On Monday stocks soared further based on expectations governments would not withdraw stimulus and/or accommodative policies until the world economy was more clearly on its feet.

Tod…

Another tactic in Google's bid to capture the enterprise - when will Microsoft start to sweat?

Much of the attention Monday was given to the announcement that Google was acquiring AdMob. This fits neatly and predictably into the search giant's strategy of dominating online advertising.

What was not discussed as loudly is Google's relentless push into Microsoft's turf. Google is serious about gaining access to enterprise computing and the company recognizes where improvements need to be made.

Google has been pushing a couple of initiatives targeted to the enterprise. One is their search appliance. The other is Google Apps. The Google Apps suite of applications includes Gmail, Google Talk, Google Calendar, Google Docs and Google Sites. These tools are meant to support individual work and communication as well as collaboration.

There has been some acceptance of these tools among corporations. At $50 per person per year, the Apps Premier product offering is clearly a cost effective alternative to the Microsoft Office suite of tools. The problem, however, has been securi…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for November 6, 2009

This is the usual quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 61 Alert HQ BUY signals and 29 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 1 Alert HQ BUY signal and 53 SELL signals
We have 69 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 194 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 854 Cash Flow Kings176 Swing Signals -- 171 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals.99 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 29 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 11 that fell off the previous list.55 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 52 are BUY signals and 3 are SELL signals. We also have 118 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
252 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 55 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

All the major averages gained roughly 3% this week. That seems to h…

Nonfarm Payrolls Report surprisingly bad - or was it?

How awful was today's non-farm payrolls report?

Let's start with the bad news:
Nonfarm payrolls for October fell 190,000, which is worse than the decline of 175,000 that had been widely forecast. Job losses for the previous month were upwardly revised to reflect nonfarm job losses of 219,000. The unemployment rate surged to 10.2%, which is up from 9.8% and higher than the 9.9% that was widely forecast. It also marks the highest unemployment rate since 1982.The manufacturing sector saw payrolls drop by 61,000. This is worse than the 45,000 jobs lost in the prior month.
But not everything was awful. There was some good news buried in there as well:
A drop of 190,000 is bad but it is still an improvement over the previous month's 219,000Average weekly hourly hours were unchanged at 33.0, which is a bit below the 33.1 that had been forecast. At least there was no decrease.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month, which is stronger than the 0.1% monthly increase th…

Semiconductor turnaround - is the correction over already?

On Monday I asked if semiconductors were a bargain yet. I proposed that very soon they would be and then the sector would be a clear Buy.

Quite frankly, the sector didn't quite fall as far as I thought it would and now today, in the midst of a tech resurgence based on Cisco's better than expected results, semiconductors appear to running again.

The following chart exhibits several aspects of technical analysis that are worth reviewing:



Here we see the iShares Semiconductor ETF (IGW). There are five points to observe:
IGW fell almost to a major support line as drawn by the horizontal magenta line.It has now bounced strongly up from that area.
The blue line shows the trend line that was solidly broken but the ETF has closed decisively above it today.The horizontal red line is the first resistance line. IGW closed above this level today, also.Williams %R shows the ETF is just now moving out of an over-sold state. It should have room to run.The 200-day moving average never wavered. …

Trust this rebound, it's real - Alert HQ signals for Nov 5, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
369 Swing Signals -- 367 BUY signals and 1 SELL Signal plus 1 Strong BUY.
81 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 40 stocks that are new additions to the list and 21 that fell off the previous list.
70 Trend Busters of which 59 are BUY signals and 11 are SELL signals.251 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. 101 are bearish gaps and 150 are bullish gaps.
The view from Alert HQ --

On Tuesday I asked whether the pullback was running out of gas. By the time we got to Thursday, it appears that the answer was a definite "yes."

Between Cisco's earnings beat and positive guidance, the big increase in productivity and the lower than expected initial jobless claims, stocks had to continue the rebound that be…