Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from October, 2009

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for October 30, 2009

This is a quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 1 Alert HQ BUY signal and 458 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have 1 Alert HQ BUY signal and 80 SELL signals
We have 260 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 201 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 849 Cash Flow Kings45 Swing Signals -- 44 BUY signals and 1 SELL Signal.58 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 10 stocks that are new additions to the list and 40 that fell off the previous list.162 Trend Busters based on daily data of which 25 are BUY signals and 137 are SELL signals. We also have 219 Trend Busters based on weekly data.
231 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 65 Gap Signals based on weekly data.The view from Alert HQ --

Looks like no treats for investors this Halloween weekend. Instead, traders have t…

While the market plunges OPNET rallies - here's why

Major market averages fell roughly 2.5% Friday but not everything went down. OPNET Technologies (OPNT) gained 4.7% today in the face of relentless selling in most other stocks. What gives?

Background --

OPNET Technologies, Inc. provides software products and related services for managing networks, servers and applications. The company's products are used to troubleshoot performance problems in production applications and perform capacity planning and design optimization of networks and servers. Products are also used to provide centralized, real-time visibility of network topology, traffic, and status in a single, integrated view and perform modeling of designs and configuration changes. The company also has products that perform some of the same functions but on wireless networks. Finally, OPNET offers consulting and professional services.

Financials --

OPNET is a profitable small-cap that actually pays a dividend, unusual for a tech company of its size. My several measures, it is no…

Did GDP sound the "All Clear"? - Thursday Swing Signals, Gaps, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for Oct 29, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
210 Swing Signals -- 207 BUY signals and 2 SELL Signals plus 1 Strong BUY.
88 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 25 stocks that are new additions to the list and 96 that fell off the previous list.
30 Trend Busters of which 7 are BUY signals and 23 are SELL signals.251 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

Third quarter GDP came at a 3.5% annualized rate, exceeding almost everyone's expectations. The usually infallible Goldman Sachs had recently dialed down their GDP estimate to less than 3% so even they weren't ready for this. In any case, stocks started strong and just got stronger as the day progressed.

I often look to our Swing Signals as the early indicator of market directio…

Durable Goods headline number masks weakness in Tech

The advanced report for Durable Goods for September came out Wednesday. The headline number for new orders showed a 1% month-over-month improvement after a surprisingly poor showing in August. How did things go in the tech sector?

Shipments --

Typically, investors pay the most attention to shipments and new orders. Shipments had the worst outcome in September. This first chart shows the results for Computers and Electronics Products which is the summarized category encompassing most high tech hardware manufacturing including computers, peripherals, storage, semiconductors, communication and networking equipment.

Yup, two down months in a row and we are now approaching the lows that were last seen in March and May.

This next chart shows shipments for the Computers and related products sub-category. Here we have a slight improvement though the previous month was revised downward a bit.


Next is the chart for Communications Equipment. The numbers include both defense and non-defense equipment…

Keep an eye on OmniVision

OmniVision Technologies (OVTI) has seen its stock price decline roughly 40% since mid-September. Can we expect things to turn around?

Background --

The company designs and manufactures CMOS image sensors (CIS) for consumer electronics products such as digital cameras, videocams, phones, PCs, netbooks and notebooks. It is also establishing a presence in the automotive, medical and security markets. Image sensors are the chips that allow all these gadgets to take pictures, capture movies, see what is behind your car, etc. The market for these chips is clearly growing and, though Omnivision has serious competitors, they are one of the leaders in their field.

Financials --

Here is a company that actually showed a sequential quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue when they reported back in August. Unfortunately, they couldn't quite translate that into a profit. Though revenue was up 18.5% to $105.6 million, the company still managed to lose $9.9 million or $0.19 per share. While still a …

A couple of sectors fall out of favor - Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders and Gap Signals for Oct 27, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
24 Swing Signals -- 11 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals and one Strong BUY.
159 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 34 stocks that are new additions to the list and 293 that fell off the previous list.
87 Trend Busters of which 23 are BUY signals and 64 are SELL signals.218 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

This post is a little late but the signals were up on the web site on time. Some of today's signals, though, were not too pleasant.

Case in point: the Trend Busters. The BUY signals on this list were almost exclusively short or ultra short ETFs. That in itself is not a serious sign unless there is confirmation from the ETFs that are based on the same or similar underlying indexes.…

Down week for stocks - little blip or start of something bigger?

Should investors be worried?

Stocks actually closed with losses this week. This is something we haven't seen much of lately so every time it happens, I begin to think maybe this is finally the long awaited pullback.

Certainly, price action in the stock market was not particularly reassuring. Despite a sequence of better than expected earnings from most companies and some spectacular earnings from the likes of Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN), stocks were unable to shake off the blahs. The three major averages lost a fraction of a percent, most of it on Friday. Small-caps got spanked as the Russell 2000 lost a big 2.5%

Economic reports presented a so-so picture of the U.S. struggling to rebound. Initial jobless claims were the big disappointment, rising again after economists predicted a decrease. Coupled with an upward revision of the previous week's numbers, it confirmed that the job market could be much worse than merely a lagging indicator. Real estate also showed that it di…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for October 23, 2009

This is a very quick post announcing that the weekend's stock signals are now available at Alert HQ.

Today we have the following:
Based on daily data, we have 6 Alert HQ BUY signals and 33 SELL signals
Based on weekly data, we have no Alert HQ BUY signals and 24 SELL signals
We have 122 Bollinger Band Breakouts based on daily data and 233 Breakouts based on weekly data.We have 803 Cash Flow Kings32 Swing Signals -- 24 BUY signals and 5 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs.418 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 43 stocks that are new additions to the list and 161 that fell off the previous list.19 Trend Busters of which 7 are BUY signals and 12 are SELL signals.199 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed. We also have 64 Gap Signals based on weekly data.Unfortunately, I have no time this morning for analysis of this weekend's signals. Stay tuned. I expect to have a post out on Sunday.

Using our signals…

NASDAQ getting shaky - is it on thin ice or in thin air?

Another day when a bellwether couldn't save the market. Apple couldn't do it last week and Amazon couldn't do it this week. Even Microsoft's earnings beat today didn't help.

You can see in the chart below that the NAZ was up nicely on Friday but couldn't hold on.


Distressing signs that are developing include the fact that MACD is sneaking negative. The 12-day EMA has moved below the 26-day EMA, a bearish signal if it continues. Williams %R shows the index falling out of an over-bought situation. Where it goes from here is, of course, the big question but it does seem to be skating on thin ice now.

I've been trying to examine the Alert HQ signals over the last couple of weeks and losing confidence in the ability of markets to make significant new highs without some kind of pullback happening first. It seems like tentative signs of that pullback are starting to show up.

Is the NASDAQ Now in Thin Air?

Readers of this blog may be familiar with one of our affiliates,…

Thursday Swing Signals, Gaps, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for Oct 22, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
47 Swing Signals -- 32 BUY signals and 13 SELL Signals plus 2 Strong BUYs.
535 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 111 stocks that are new additions to the list and 254 that fell off the previous list.
28 Trend Busters of which 11 are BUY signals and 17 are SELL signals.202 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

Stocks came from behind today and finished with solid gains. This doesn't change the fact that stocks have been more or less treading water for the last seven sessions or so. It's been a narrow trading range with the S&P 500 essentially flat and the NASDAQ showing only a small gain.

Our signals absolutely reflect this situation. Trend Leaders list decreasing, more SELL s…

Why two semiconductor companies bucked the downtrend

Wednesday the market sold off in the last hour and major indexes ended the day with losses. Semiconductor indexes were underwater pretty much the entire day. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (IGW) ended down 1.72%.

Two well-known semiconductor companies were able to buck the downtrend and close with gains. Who were they and what were the reasons? Are there clues as to else might benefit?

Buried in the semiconductor supply chain are the companies that actually produce the chips for the firms that do much of the design work and handle sales to end users and OEMs.

The two biggest contract manufacturers of semiconductors are Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) and United Microelectronic Corp. (UMC). The item that gave both these stocks a boost was an article on the DigiTimes web site discussing utilization rates.

The article quoted sources that indicated that both companies have
...seen a surge in demand for networking and wireless solutions. TSMC's 65nm-process capacity has been almost fully uti…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders and Gap Signals for Oct 20, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
110 Swing Signals -- 88 BUY signals and 22 SELL Signals.
678 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 140 stocks that are new additions to the list and 199 that fell off the previous list.
19 Trend Busters of which 9 are BUY signals and 10 are SELL signals.208 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

It's just a world of wackiness out there. Last week we got a ton of SELL signals on municipal bond funds. A little research revealed that real carnage had been occurring in the muni market. This week we're seeing many of those same muni funds pop up as BUYs on the Swing Signal list. Some have yet to struggle back above their 50-DMA but some look like they might really be in recovery mode. Some…

Tips for TradeRadar users - setting stops

Stocks are making new highs these days. This is the time when you should be preparing to lock in profits. That means setting stops.

Setting stops usually entails looking for levels where a stock's descent is liable to halt. If the stock falls below one of those levels, it is sold automatically.

The TradeRadar software can help. Here's how.

Assume you are long a particular stock. You want to set a stop that preserves a reasonable amount of your profit or prevents unacceptable losses. The trick is to set the stop at a point that is high enough to limit losses but low enough so that the stock has some room to move. After all, you don't want to be stopped out and then see the stock rebound.

To accomplish this delicate balancing act, investors commonly look at moving averages, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement lines and support levels.

As it turns out, the TradeRadar software automatically generates three of the four indicators mentioned above. Let's use Yahoo (YHOO) as an exam…

Divergence a threat - can stocks keep pushing higher?

Stocks seem to have continued their winning ways these week. Or did they?

Major averages turned in varied results. The Russell 2000 barely managed a 0.2% gain while, on the other end, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%. The first couple of days of the week stocks meandered. Wednesday saw a big jump. Thursday saw some consolidation and Friday was a definite down day.

Earnings reports were decent but investor reactions were mixed. The market applauded Google and JP Morgan Chase but gave Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America the raspberry.

Economic reports were also decent with retail sales beating expectations, initial jobless claims less than expectations and the Empire State Manufacturing Index coming in at a level almost twice the consensus.

Where do we go from here? We'll look at some of the charts that follow and see if we can figure that out.

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:


This first chart tracks our moving average anal…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for October 16, 2009

This post is to announce that the weekend's stock signals are available from Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - just like it says, a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Trading Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. Gap Signals - stocks or ETFs gapping up or down during the last 5 sessio…

Beware Muni Bond Funds - Alert HQ for Oct 15, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
22 Swing Signals -- 15 BUY signals and 7 SELL Signals.
726 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 277 stocks that are new additions to the list and 71 that fell off the previous list.
129 Trend Busters of which 29 are BUY signals and 100 are SELL signals.168 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

Markets were wobbly today but our signals have remained reasonably positive with one exception. We'll get to that exception is a minute but first the positive news.

Our Swing Signals list continues to be on the short side but BUY signals again outnumber SELL signals. We have more upside gaps than downside gaps on our Gap Signal list. The Trend Leaders list has been steadily growing and, as we appr…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders and Gap Signals for Oct 13, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
14 Swing Signals -- 8 BUY signals and 6 SELL Signals.
520 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 196 stocks that are new additions to the list and 62 that fell off the previous list.
24 Trend Busters of which 16 are BUY signals and 8 are SELL signals.177 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

We're seeing a rotation in our signals now. Note that the number of stocks on the Trend Leaders list has increased to over 500. At the same time, the number of Swing Signals has been decreasing. This shows the up-trend has been in place long enough to move all the lagging indicators that make up the Trend Leaders. It also shows that there aren't as many stocks left at the bottom of their Bollinger…

Weekly Review - on the rebound

What a rebound! Five straight days of gains are certainly a welcome comeback from the previous two weeks of declines. Time for the bears to take control again?

We'll look at where we are today in some of the charts that follow and see if we can figure out where we are going.

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:

This first chart tracks our moving average analysis. With stocks doing a quick about-face this week we see the number of stocks above their 50-day MA surging upward (the yellow line). It is close to crossing above the magenta line, the number of stocks whose 20-day MA is above their 50-day MA. If this does come to pass, it will be a bullish signal.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. It looks at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis.


As can be expected, we can see the number of stocks in a down-trend has decreased. What I didn't expect is that the number of sto…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for October 9, 2009

This post is to announce that the weekend's stock signals are available from Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - just like it says, a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Trading Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. Gap Signals - stocks or ETFs gapping up or down during the last 5 sessio…

The Price of Safety

I have written several posts on stable value funds over the last year or two. With the financial crisis easing, the topic needs revisiting.

It is worth reviewing some of the issues around stable value funds a year ago and contrasting the situation with where we are today.

Back from the brink --

Back when Lehman Bros. was failing and the stock market was collapsing, many people moved portions of their 401Ks into stable value funds. These funds guaranteed principal and paid a modest interest rate. It came out that this was a popular strategy for employees even at the Federal Reserve.

I, myself, took this same action and wrote about it on this blog. The reaction among readers ranged from agreement on the strategy to "what, are you crazy?" The reason for the latter opinion is that many stable value funds held bonds that had always been solid and conservative in the past but, in the midst of a real estate melt-down, were now at risk. I am talking about mortgage-backed securities issu…

Thursday Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders and Gap Signals for Oct 8, 2009

This post is announcing that Thursday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
88 Swing Signals -- 85 BUY signals and 3 SELL Signals.
306 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 147 stocks that are new additions to the list and 25 that fell off the previous list.
40 Trend Busters of which 33 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals.229 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

On Tuesday I looked at the day's Alert HQ signals and dared to predict new highs were on the way. Here we are on Thursday and all I can say is "so far, so good."

Our signals at Alert HQ have stayed bullish. Our Swing Trading Signals list is shorter today than on Tuesday but the BUY signals still way outnumber the SELL signals. The Trend Leaders list is expanding again. There are more upside…

Free course in technical analysis - now that's a pretty good deal!

Those of you who follow this blog and check out our Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals know that I'm always jabbering about trends, moving averages, Aroon, MACD, Bollinger Bands and other techniques for technical analysis.

Today we have a guest post from Adam Hewison who is a co-founder of our MarketClub affiliate. He has a program that will bring you up to speed on many of these technical analysis methods and tell you how to use them in your trading. I think it could be very educational so, without further ado, here's Adam...

First of all I wanted to thank Trader Radar for having me as a guest today!

My name is Adam Hewison. You might want to Google me to confirm what I am about to share with you.

There are plenty of people out there that create “exclusive email courses” with little or no credentials to actually backup their teachings. So, I think it’s right that I share a little bit about myself with you before we even start.

I was a former floor trader on the IMM, IOM, NYFE and LIFFE…

Kick the tires and light the fires - Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders and Gap Signals for Oct 6, 2009

This post is announcing that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders, Trend Busters and Gap Signals are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
209 Swing Signals -- 197 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals plus 4 Strong BUYs.
184 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 80 stocks that are new additions to the list and 40 that fell off the previous list.
22 Trend Busters of which 14 are BUY signals and 8 are SELL signals.227 Gap Signals -- stocks with upside or downside gaps or gaps that have been closed.
The view from Alert HQ --

Pullbacks these days sure seem to be short and shallow. Two weeks of declines and now the market is taking off like a jet.

Our signals at Alert HQ have swung way bullish again. I don't think we've ever had such a preponderance of BUYs on our Swing Trading Signals list. I don't want to go out on a limb here, but this really suggests we're going to new highs and pretty so…

Software a defensive sector? Who knew?

I often write about tech stocks on this blog. Today I read an interview with one of the most well-known managers of a technology mutual fund.

The Wall Street Journal had a conversation with Paul Wick, manager of the Seligman Communications and Information fund (SLMCX). With 20 years as manager of this fund, he has consistently ranked in or near the top 10% among his peers.

Mr. Wick makes several points that will be familiar to fans of tech stocks. He comments that many tech stocks have "grown up" (my phrase), have solid business models and have reacted to the downturn by cutting costs and finding other ways to remain profitable. He contends that the tide is turning for many tech sectors and, therefore, the run-up in many tech stocks is justified. Even some of the lower quality companies have reasons to bounce.

These are ideas that are not unusual though they are open to dispute among those who feel less bullish on the economy in general or tech stocks in particular.

Prompted by …

The trend may not be your friend this time...

I know that it really isn't proper to do technical analysis on leveraged ETFs. I know that it is always better to analyze an underlying index.

Nevertheless, I was struck by the fact that out of the 25 BUY signals on our Trend Busters list this weekend, fully 23 of them are inverse or inverse leveraged ETFs. In other words, they have all broken above downward-sloping trend lines and are threatening to initiate a new upward trend. Here they are listed below:

SymbolNameDPKDIREXION DAILY DEVELOPED MARKETS BEAR 3X SHARESEDZDIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS BEAR 3X SHARESERYDIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SHARESFAZDIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X SHARESDRVDIREXION DAILY REAL ESTATE BEAR 3X SHARESTYPDIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3X SHARESSEFPROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALSRWMPROSHARES SHORT RUSSELL2000SBBPROSHARES SHORT SMALLCAP600SPXUPROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500SMNPROSHARES ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALSDXDPROSHARES ULTRASHORT DOW 30SIJPROSHARES ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALSEPVPROSHARES ULTRASHORT M…