Skip to main content

Weekly Review - building toward better things?

Today I spent a big chunk of time building a door frame for a storeroom in my attic. This is part of the never-ending renovation of my 100 year old house. Besides the fact that it has kept me from focusing on my usual Weekly Review post, it got me thinking about the economy.

I started things today by ripping out the stuff that was falling apart. Then I putt up a rough opening with 2X4's and proceeded to the finish work. There was cutting and trimming, adding shims to make sure everything was plumb. Yes, some things needed redoing. By the end of the day, the door itself still wasn't hung but most of the heavy lifting was done.

So how does a door frame equate to the economy? Look at the chart below. Plenty of missteps and redos. But little by little, something decent is taking shape in the stock market. Likewise in the economy, the things that were falling apart are little by little being replaced. With the help of the Fed and the Treasury, some 2x4's have been put in place to reinforce the sagging banks and financial system. The government is now applying the shims as new approaches to regulations are debated to straighten out a financial system that had gotten out of kilter. In any case, the foundations for a resurgence in the economy are slowly rising. The bullishness in the chart below, therefore, is seemingly justified.


The chart above shows our analysis of the universe of stocks we evaluate, roughly 7200 of them. We can see from these moving average statistics that after a very constructive phase we have been going through a period of indecision. Though the charts of the major averages are looking like there was a bit of a bullish breakout this week, our statistics show we are still somewhat range bound.

The next chart provides our trending analysis. Looking at the number of stocks in strong up-trends or down-trends based on Aroon analysis reveals a market that is in neutral but with a tendency toward improvement. While the number of stocks in strong up-trends is not extreme, the number of stocks in strong down-trends is very low.


So the economy and the stock market do seem to be building toward better things. The Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a much smaller number of layoffs than expected. Construction spending surprised to upside. It's true, the unemployment rate is hitting multi-decade highs and many retailers are still limping along but everything can't be fixed at once.

Just like my old house, there is still a good bit of construction necessary to restore this economy to its former glory days. But we're making progress.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Running TradeRadar on Windows 7 and Windows 8

Development of the original TradeRadar Stock Inspector software was begun back in the days before Windows 7 and Windows 8 were available.

As these newer versions of Windows have become more popular, we have heard from some users that they are having problems installing and running TradeRadar on their newer PCs.

The good news is that TradeRadar will work just fine on Windows 7 and Windows 8. All you have to do is adjust the Windows Compatibility Settings to ensure TradeRadar runs as intended.

It is recommended that you can apply Compatibility Settings when running the initial installation; however, it is also possible to apply Compatibility Settings after the program has been installed.

Prior to installation
After downloading the install program, go to the folder where you have stored the TradeRadarStkInsp_7_Setup.exe or TradeRadarStkInsp_7_PRO_Setup.exe executable. Right-click on the executable file and select Properties. Click the Compatibility tab. Adjust the Compatibility mode to …

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:


Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:


Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.

N…

Alert HQ has moved!

End of an era!

This site was started way back in 2006/2007 to showcase my blog posts and the Alert HQ buy signals and sell signals. Alert HQ grew to include other kinds of stock alerts including Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders, Cash Flow Kings and more.

In the meantime, I built a sister site, TradingStockAlerts.com and I started using some of the same Alert HQ content over there. As a result, I am discontinuing the Alert HQ data here at Trade-Radar.com

The good news, however, is that all the Alert HQ signals and stock screens are still completely free. In addition, the pages have been enhanced so that you can hover over a stock symbol and a small chart will pop up so you can get a quick look at the stock's recent price action. If you click on a symbol it will take you to a page with plenty of financial and technical analysis information (still free!) as well as a larger chart that you can play with in terms of adding or deleting indicators, moving averages, etc.

Click …