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Showing posts from June, 2009

Month End Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 30, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
53 Swing Signals -- 37 BUY signals and 13 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs.
198 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 75 stocks that are new additions to the list and 23 that fell off the previous list.
16 Trend Busters of which 9 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signals.The view from Alert HQ --

I have been vacationing the last few days so I will freely admit that I have not been following the little daily dramas taking place in the markets this week. What I can see from today's signals, however, confirms my suspicions as voiced in Saturday's post. At that time I said I thought I was beginning to see stocks begin to pull out of their recent swoon. The number of Trend Leaders has doubled since last week. Swing Signals continue to show BUY signals predominati…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 26, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. This week's results --

It turned out to be a lackluster week in the markets. The S&P 500 fell fractionally and th…

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 25, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
305 Swing Signals -- Wow! What a huge increase in signals and almost all of them are bullish: 290 BUY signals and 4 SELL Signals plus 11 Strong BUYs
98 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 40 new stocks that made today's list and 28 that fell off Tuesday's list.
20 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 14 are SELL signalsThe view from Alert HQ --

Another Swing Signals list with Strong BUYs! That's twice this week. There is no doubt that many stocks are bouncing off their lower Bollinger Band. If this can translate into good breadth over the next few days we could see markets taking another leg up.

On the other hand, our list of Trend Leaders dwindled again; however, there is quite a bit of filtering on the indicators used to generate the lis…

Durable Goods Report - tech fundamentals finally breaking downtrends?

Today's Durable Goods reports surprised to the upside and helped the stock market regain some of the previous few days losses. The following is our analysis of what the report says about the tech sector.

Semiconductors --

In April, Semiconductors put together a surprisingly strong month with Shipments showing a 34% gain over March. This month, Semiconductors gave a little back. The following chart reflects an upward adjustment for April and a very modest drop-off in May. Though the trend is still clearly down, the appearance of a bottom is finally coming into view.


Computers --

This month's outstanding performance belongs to the Computers and Related Products category where New Orders surged 9.4% after dropping mid-single digits in the previous two months. The chart below reflects a downward adjustment in April and the nice move upward in May. This chart shows the clearest evidence of the downward trend finally being broken.


Shipments in this category also seem to be stabilizing an…

One reason big tech will beat this quarter

Oracle reported earnings after the close today. The news wasn't bad. Revenue and profit were down single digits but earnings per share still managed to beat Wall Street expectations by a couple of pennies.

Signs of things to come?

Oracle's CFO indicated that the company executed extremely well this quarter and that sales of support contracts had a positive impact on the bottom line. The CFO singled out a strong dollar as one reason for the declines in sales and income.

On a year-over-year basis, Oracle's CFO is correct; the dollar is indeed significantly higher now than it was in last year's quarter. This is clear to see on the chart below.

On the other hand, looking at the dollar over the last few months, the chart shows that it has fallen roughly 10% since peaking in early March 2009.


Looking at earnings for the most recent quarter, tech stocks with significant international sales will benefit from the dollar dropping. Year over year, earnings may still look poor but it m…

Bumpy Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 23, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
56 Swing Signals -- 36 BUY signals and 16 SELL Signals plus 4 Strong BUYs.
86 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 19 stocks that are new additions to the list and 90 that fell off the previous list.
180 Trend Busters of which only 12 are BUY signals and 168 are SELL signals.After Monday's sell-off, Tuesday's bumpy ride leaves stocks flat on the day --

More weakness in the market has prolonged the shrinkage in our list of Trend Leaders. On the weekend we had 157 stocks and ETFs on the list, after today there are only 86. A few weeks ago there were around a thousand. Leadership in this market is getting mighty scarce.

Similarly, our Trend Busters list reflects further weakness as the breakouts to the downside greatly outnumber the breakouts to the upside.

A…

How to use the TradeRadar software - new slideshow gives you all the basics

I have contended that the TradeRadar software is very easy to use; however, setting up the chart to generate the indicators may not be immediately obvious to new users. The slideshow below describes how to use the new "Auto" feature as a shortcut. It goes on to explain how to evaluate our indicators and make your final Buy or Sell decision. (Look for the icon that allows you to view in full screen mode.)

Trade Radar SlideshowView more OpenOffice presentations from Traderadar Operator.
Note that the "Auto" feature can be turned off so you can manually adjust the date range, the filtering and sensitivity if you so desire.

More info --

The following links provide more information and show you where to download:
TradeRadar Help File - more details on how to load data, deeper discussion of indicators and description of the portfolio history functionality
Features page - more screenshots of features not covered in the slideshow
Download page - downloads are always free. Full i…

Weekly Review - stocks look tired

Stocks dropped this past week but thankfully it could not be considered a rout. It is almost unbelievable that for the S&P 500 this is only the third down week we have seen since early March!

Though down like all the other indexes, the NASDAQ was the week's best performer. This was despite a sell-off in Blackberry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) who announced better than expected earnings but delivered an uninspiring forecast and solid but not overwhelming debut for Apple's new iPhone.

On the economic front, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed that manufacturing slid again in May after a couple of months of improvement while factory utilization continues to drift at record low levels. The housing market showed more small signs of improvement but it wasn't enough to keep stocks moving up.

The view from Alert HQ --

Charts of some of the statistics we track at Alert HQ are presented below:


The chart above shows our analysis of the universe of stock…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 19, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. This week's results --

Markets barely budged this past week. We have seen essentially nine trading days of consolidat…

What Bing might cost Google (it's not peanuts!)

Part of the excitement over Microsoft's new Bing search engine has been the fact that it seems to be getting a pretty fair amount of traffic.

So far, it seems that Microsoft (MSFT) has gained search share at the expense of Yahoo! while Google's search share has remained relatively steady. If Bing's popularity grows, however, it's bound to make a dent in Google's dominance of search.

So what would be the impact if users began to give up Google (GOOG) in favor of Bing?

Here are a few numbers to consider:
Google derives 99% of their revenue from advertising.Google derives 69% of ad revenue from "Google web sites". This means Google search and other sites owned by Google such as YouTube. The vast majority of the revenue is derived from search advertising.According to the most recent annual report, advertising revenue from "Google web sites" was $14.4 billion.Google's overall share of search according to ComScore's most recent measure for May is …

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 18, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
87 Swing Signals -- 70 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals plus 5 Strong BUYs
147 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 35 new stocks that made today's list and 140 that fell off Tuesday's list.
79 Trend Busters of which 8 are BUY signals and 71 are SELL signalsThe view from Alert HQ --

It's good to see some Strong BUYs appear on our list of Swing Trading signals again. We've gone at least a week and a half without any Strong BUY or SELL signals. For that matter, the BUY signals greatly outnumber the SELL signals on the Swing Trading list and that might be a hint that stocks are getting ready to rally again.

On the other hand, it is worrisome to see our list of trend leaders reduced to under 150 when just a week or so ago we had well over 500. This …

Troublesome Tuesday - Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 16, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
56 Swing Signals -- 24 BUY signals and 32 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
252 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 37 stocks that are new additions to the list and 450 that fell off the previous list.
197 Trend Busters of which only 23 are BUY signals and 174 are SELL signals.Today's signals paint a troubling picture --

First, our list of Trend Leaders has been decimated in the last two trading days. On the weekend we had 665 stocks and ETFs on the list, after today there are only 252.

Conversely, today we have a big increase in the number of stocks and ETFs on our Trend Busters list. What is worrisome is that a big proportion of those that are breaking to the up-side are inverse ETFs.

So we see fewer stocks in strong up-trends and more invers…

Small-Cap 'SuperList' - three stocks exploding to the upside

Time for another custom "SuperList" stock screen from the TradeRadar database.

Today's stock screen starts by looking at stocks that have shown EPS growth. They have sequential quarter-over-quarter growth as well as year-over-year growth. There are currently 617 stocks that meet that criterion.

The list below, however, took that sample of 617 and whittled it down by looking only for those stocks that are currently on both the Trend Leaders list and Bollinger Band Breakout list for this weekend. These stocks are exploding upward.

SymbolNameLast PriceMarket CapMFWM & F WORLDWIDE CORP.$25.74$497,600,000ATNIAtlantic Tele-Network, Inc.$38.46$585,700,000BIDSOTHEBY'S$14.55$974,600,000
What's driving the gains in these stocks?

For ATNI, it is acquisition news. The company, a cellular system operator, is buying certain wireless properties from Verizon, including wireless spectrum licenses and network assets, serving over 800,000 subscribers primarily in rural areas across…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 12, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. This week's results --

Markets barely budged this past week. We have seen essentially nine trading days of consolidat…

Google on TV - is a starring role on the way?

Microsoft (MSFT) has rolled out Bing, their new search engine, to much fanfare and with a multimillion dollar advertising campaign. But are they fighting last year's battle?

Google (GOOG), as everyone knows, dominates search advertising with its AdWords offering. They are also strong in pay per click through AdSense. The company has struggled with print ads and radio ads and ultimately abandoned both efforts.

One area where Google has persisted is television. The company offers a service that works much like a combination of AdSense and AdWords except the ads are filmed TV commercials.

Like AdWords, an advertiser creates an ad, sets a daily budget and bids on placing the ad on shows or channels that are a good marketing fit. Much like AdSense, the TV networks offer ad inventory at relatively low cost with the expectation that the ads supplied by Google will be relevant to the viewers of the programming.

Google hasn't registered the kind of success they have seen in the search adve…

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 11, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
23 Swing Signals -- 11 BUY signals and 12 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs
755 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 190 new stocks that made today's list and 197 that fell off Tuesday's list.
24 Trend Busters of which 4 are BUY signals and 20 are SELL signalsSad to say there are no Strong BUYs in our list of Swing Signals today.

If you're wondering what large-cap tech is doing these days, sort our Trend Leaders list by market cap. You'll see everyone's favorite tech stocks there including stodgy old Microsoft that is actually the center of buzz and controversy these days now that they have introduced their new search engine Bing.

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice…

Formal release of TradeRadar software version 4.1 now available

This post is to announce that the full install of TradeRadar version 4.1 is now available. For those who have never used TradeRadar, this will provide all the components necessary to install and run this most recent version of the software.

The two screens that have been updated are now displayed on the Features page. The Download pages now provide both the 4.1 upgrade and the 4.1 full install. In addition, the latest help file is available for your review.
New Features in version 4.1 --The major new features in this version include the following:
Auto checkbox – automatically sets up the chart for the type of signal you are looking for. Select either BUY signal – smooth or SELL signal – smooth. Click the Update Chart button and the software will automatically try to find the best chart setup.Classic Trend – For a BUY signal using daily data, for example, this chart feature shows the line that could be drawn connecting the cyclic peaks made by the daily high prices. When the stock closes…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 9, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
23 Swing Signals -- 8 BUY signals and 15 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
762 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. We have 158 stocks that are new additions to the list and 286 that fell off the previous list.
14 Trend Busters of which 5 are BUY signals and 9 are SELL signalsUsing our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.

Advance Release - TradeRadar Stock Analysis Software version 4.1

Tonight I'd like to announce the advance release of the TradeRadar stock analysis software version 4.1
Three new features --The major new features in this version include the following:

Auto checkbox – This probably what many have been waiting for. The Auto checkbox tells the software to automatically set up the chart for the type of signal you are looking for. For those who are new to the software, figuring out how to choose the start date for analyzing a BUY signal or SELL signal can be difficult. This little checkbox lets the software handle it all for you.

Classic Trend Line – This is best explained using an example. For a BUY signal using daily data, this chart feature shows the dotted line that could be drawn connecting the cyclic peaks of the daily high prices. If the price closes above this Classic Trend Line, it is considered a reversal to the up-side. This is different from the TradeRadar slope or trend calculation that is related to daily closing prices. (Note: Classic Tre…

Weekly Review - building toward better things?

Today I spent a big chunk of time building a door frame for a storeroom in my attic. This is part of the never-ending renovation of my 100 year old house. Besides the fact that it has kept me from focusing on my usual Weekly Review post, it got me thinking about the economy.

I started things today by ripping out the stuff that was falling apart. Then I putt up a rough opening with 2X4's and proceeded to the finish work. There was cutting and trimming, adding shims to make sure everything was plumb. Yes, some things needed redoing. By the end of the day, the door itself still wasn't hung but most of the heavy lifting was done.

So how does a door frame equate to the economy? Look at the chart below. Plenty of missteps and redos. But little by little, something decent is taking shape in the stock market. Likewise in the economy, the things that were falling apart are little by little being replaced. With the help of the Fed and the Treasury, some 2x4's have been put in place to…

Performance Review - TradeRadar 'Strong BUY' Swing Trading Signals on a streak

It's been a few weeks since I introduced the Strong BUY signal to the TradeRadar Swing Signals list. What kind of performance are we seeing?

I am pleased to say that the results have been pretty good. As you can see in the following chart, there isn't a loser among them.

SymbolNameDate of SignalOriginal PriceMost Recent PriceGain/LossARSTArc Sight, Inc.5/16/2009$14.85$18.1922.0%KIRKKirkland's, Inc.5/16/2009$6.19$9.5654.0%DBRNThe Dress Barn, Inc.5/16/2009$14.23$16.5817.0%ONCYOncolytics Biotech, Inc.5/19/2009$1.65$1.682.0%HOOKCraft Brewers Alliance, Inc5/23/2009$1.96$2.076.0%KKDKRISPY KREME DOUGHNUTS5/26/2009$3.45$3.635.0%PENNPenn National Gaming, Inc.5/26/2009$30.39$32.106.0%AIGAMERICAN INT'L GROUP, INC6/4/2009$1.64$1.714.0%MSSRMcCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants, Inc.6/4/2009$6.50$6.754.0%NBXHMorgan Stanley6/4/2009$5.50$5.500.0%
During this time when these signals were being generated, we have sort of had the wind at our backs. The market has been going thro…

Weekend Winners and Losers - Alert HQ BUY and SELL signals for June 5, 2009

The latest list of free stock alerts is up and available at Alert HQ.

Each week we scan about 7300 stocks and ETFs, checking fundamentals, performing technical analysis and looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. Out of this process we generate the following lists:
Alert HQ stock alerts - based on a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques, we identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downsideTrend Leaders - a collection of stocks in strong up-trendsCash Flow Kings whose free cash flow yield is 25% or greaterBollinger Band Breakouts - stocks or ETFs that have moved at least 3% above their upper Bollinger Band or at least 3% below their lower Bollinger BandSwing Signals - stocks that have bounced off a higher or lower Bollinger Band
Trend Busters - stocks or ETFs that have violated a current trend. This week's results --

On Monday, stocks broke out of the last month's trading range and then proceeded to go now…

Thursday Trio: Trend Busters, Swing Signals and Trend Leaders for June 4, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Thursday's Trend Leaders, Swing Signals and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
39 Swing Signals -- 28 BUY signals and 8 SELL Signals plus 3 Strong BUYs
988 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. There are 135 new stocks that made today's list and 238 that fell off Tuesday's list.
12 Trend Busters of which 7 are BUY signals and 5 are SELL signalsAt last, after a dry spell of about one week, we have a few Strong BUYs in our list of Swing Signals. At least one will surprise you. In any case, these picks seem to perform quite well (as along the market isn't plunging).

Remember, if you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.

Why is Data Domain such a hot acquisition candidate?

It almost looks like a bidding war for Data Domain (DDUP). First a bid from NetApp (NTAP), then a bid from EMC and now a revised bid from NetApp.

First, what does Data Domain do?

Here is summary of the profile from Yahoo Finance: "Data Domain, Inc. provides deduplication storage appliances for disk-based backup, archiving, and network-based disaster recovery. The company's appliances reduce the storage of redundant copies of data within enterprises. It also offers Replicator software, which allows enterprises to utilize wide area network vaulting for offsite disaster protection and recovery; and a capacity-optimized Virtual Tape Library software option that emulates multiple tape libraries over a fiber channel interface, as well as integrates with an enterprise's existing backup infrastructure."

Translation: Data Domain's hardware and software, by reducing duplication and redundancy in a company's data and documents, lessens storage requirements and thereby cuts…

Sector ETFs showing the most strength - signs this rally has legs?

If you're wondering how broad based the current rally is, this post will highlight some of the sectors that are showing the most price momentum and strength in their up-trends.

We evaluate a selection of what I call "Benchmark ETFs" as proxies for various market sectors. The following list is based on daily data. All these ETFs are showing strong bullish readings for Aroon and DMI which we use to determine how strong a stock or ETF's trend is. In addition, these ETFs are all above their 20-day moving average.

Benchmark ETFBenchmark IndexEEMMSCI Emerging Markets IndexFXIFTSE/Xinhua China 25 IndexIGWDow Jones U.S. Semiconductors IndexIJHS&P MidCap 400 IndexIWFRussell 1000® Growth IndexIWORussell 2000® Growth IndexIWPRussell Mid-Cap® Growth IndexIYCDow Jones U.S. Consumer Services IndexIYMDow Jones U.S. Basic Materials IndexIYWDow Jones U.S. Technology IndexIYZDow Jones U.S. Select Telecommunications IndexQQQQNASDAQ-100® Index
Many of these are no surprise if you are a…

Tuesday Swing Signals, Trend Busters and Trend Leaders for June 2, 2009

This is a quick post to announce that Tuesday's Swing Signals, Trend Leaders and Trend Busters are now available at Alert HQ. All are based on daily data.

Today we have the following:
20 Swing Signals -- 10 BUY signals and 10 SELL Signals but no Strong BUYs or Strong SELLS.
1091 Trend Leaders, all in strong up-trends according to Aroon, MACD and DMI. This is double the number we registered over the weekend - what a difference a day makes! We have 569 stocks that are new additions to the list and only 46 that fell off the previous list.
13 Trend Busters of which 6 are BUY signals and 7 are SELL signalsUsing our signals --

If you're a momentum trader, the Trend Leaders list is a good place to go shopping. If you practice technical analysis, check out the Trend Busters. And if you are a short-term trader or even a day trader, our Swing Signals may provide some good trading ideas.

LCD glass - a leading indicator?

It's often said that semiconductors are a leading indicator for the tech sector. What about LCD glass?

Corning (GLW) has announced that it raised its expectations for second-quarter sequential volume growth. CEO Wendell Weeks was extremely positive in his statement:
"Our recent checks indicate the LCD supply chain is in full recovery mode. The LCD supply chain continues to replenish; glass supply and demand is very tight right now, much stronger than we anticipated. This has led to an imbalance in glass supply and demand that will likely last through the end of the third quarter. As a result, we are raising our second-quarter glass volume expectations."Is this company specific or is it a harbinger of improvement in the tech sector in general?

Consider the list of products that use LCD glass: flat panel TV sets, PC monitors, laptops and now high-end mobile devices. Corning emphasized that much of the improvement in demand was due to TVs; nevertheless, it's not unreaso…