Skip to main content

The importance of backtesting -- fixing Trend Busters

I've been working hard to roll out new features at Alert HQ. I always try to do some backtesting to verify that these features are working as anticipated. Actually running the various screens and putting out the results at Alert HQ, though, always yields new insights.

For example, I recently introduced Trend Busters. This was an attempt to implement a system that would identify the recent trend and determine whether that trend had been violated. This was initially rolled out using a simple test: if the trend was pointing upward and the most recent price was 5% below the trend then it was a SELL signal. If the trend was heading downward and the most recent price was 5% above the trend then it was a BUY signal. This seemed to be pretty workable but in practice it turns out that sideways action will trigger a false signal.

This post is to explain some of the changes that have been implemented to make the Trend Busters signals more accurate. Here are some of the improvements we have made to BUY signals:
  • Verify that the closing price of the most recent day is higher than the closing price of the previous day
  • Verify that the low price of the most recent day is higher than the low price of the previous day
  • Verify that the closing price of the most recent day is at least 5% higher the closing price of the day when the most recent minimum price was established
  • Verify the most recent day's low price is higher than the high of the day when the most recent minimum price was established
For SELL signals, the conditions are essentially the opposite.

Our recent backtesting has validated that this new system rejects the most questionable signals. I am excited to roll out the new Trend Busters. The list will certainly be shorter than it has been in the past but the stocks and ETFs that do make the list will be much better candidates for the Trend Busters title. Be sure to check them out when the newest list is released this Saturday (tomorrow!).

For details on how the original process worked click (here) to read the introductory post.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Running TradeRadar on Windows 7 and Windows 8

Development of the original TradeRadar Stock Inspector software was begun back in the days before Windows 7 and Windows 8 were available.

As these newer versions of Windows have become more popular, we have heard from some users that they are having problems installing and running TradeRadar on their newer PCs.

The good news is that TradeRadar will work just fine on Windows 7 and Windows 8. All you have to do is adjust the Windows Compatibility Settings to ensure TradeRadar runs as intended.

It is recommended that you can apply Compatibility Settings when running the initial installation; however, it is also possible to apply Compatibility Settings after the program has been installed.

Prior to installation
After downloading the install program, go to the folder where you have stored the TradeRadarStkInsp_7_Setup.exe or TradeRadarStkInsp_7_PRO_Setup.exe executable. Right-click on the executable file and select Properties. Click the Compatibility tab. Adjust the Compatibility mode to …

Durable Goods report for Sept just so-so but Computer segment is on fire

The Durable Goods advanced report for September 2011 was released on Wednesday.

I like to dig into the Durable Goods report because it can be useful for seeing how tech in aggregate is performing and how the sector may perform in the future. I always focus on two particular measures: shipments and new orders. Let's see how it played out last month.

Shipments -- 

I generally give less importance to Shipments since this is a backward looking measure reflecting orders that have been confirmed, manufactured and shipped. It's similar to earnings reports -- it's good to know but the data is in the past and we're more interested in the future. The following chart shows how September shipments looked for the overall tech sector:


Results for the overall tech sector were a bit weak but take a look at the next chart which tracks the Computers and related products segment:


Results here were actually quite good and, to make things even better, the previous month was revised upward.

N…

Alert HQ has moved!

End of an era!

This site was started way back in 2006/2007 to showcase my blog posts and the Alert HQ buy signals and sell signals. Alert HQ grew to include other kinds of stock alerts including Swing Signals, Trend Busters, Trend Leaders, Cash Flow Kings and more.

In the meantime, I built a sister site, TradingStockAlerts.com and I started using some of the same Alert HQ content over there. As a result, I am discontinuing the Alert HQ data here at Trade-Radar.com

The good news, however, is that all the Alert HQ signals and stock screens are still completely free. In addition, the pages have been enhanced so that you can hover over a stock symbol and a small chart will pop up so you can get a quick look at the stock's recent price action. If you click on a symbol it will take you to a page with plenty of financial and technical analysis information (still free!) as well as a larger chart that you can play with in terms of adding or deleting indicators, moving averages, etc.

Click …