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Thursday, May 24, 2007

Interesting action in IYR

We recently pointed out that the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (IYR) had dropped out of a trading range and had the potential to fall further. Today we saw some follow-through on that call.

Today IYR ended up down $1.25 at $80.72. This was a 1.5% one-day loss. What was notable, however, was the intra-day price action. After being down as much as 2.7%, in the last half hour of trading IYR jumped up 1.2% from its low on relatively heavy volume. Without that spike, it might have closed below $80.

Tomorrow it will be interesting to see if the IYR bulls can build on the last minute positive action. Today's closing price of $80.72 is just below some recent resistance. We should get a test right away.

By the way, since I made the call that IYR was poised to fall, the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (SRS) has had its usual wild ride. If, the day after my post on IYR, you had bought SRS at the open (on May 17 at $83.50) you would now have gained a tidy 4.1% over the course of one week. If you sold immediately, I wouldn't blame you; these Ultra ETFs are pesky beasts.

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